A Fresh Look at Top Wrist Shots

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 15, 2007 4:27 PM EST in Statistical Analysis

Last fall, when I first took a look at breaking down shooting performance by shot type, I made a grave error by not taking Shot Quality into account. When, for example, I listed the top Wrist Shooters in the league last season, Alex Tanguay rose to the top of the heap, largely because he took the majority of his shots from in close to the net. Today, I thought I'd revise those standings to reflect who actually scores more than expected, as well as provide a look at this year's leaders. After all, with all this shopping going on prior to the trade deadline, do GM's really want to pick up a guy who's not capitalizing on his opportunities?

The tables below show the number of wrist shots taken, the Expected Goals (given average opposing goaltending, based on the distance of those shots), the Actual Goals, and the Difference between Actual and Expected. Our leader from last season, Marian Gaborik, scored 8.5 goals more than you'd expect, for example, given the number of wrist shots he took, and the distance he took them from.

**Top Wrist Shooters, 2005-06**
Shooter	Shots	Exp. Goals	Act. Goals	Diff
Marian GABORIK, MIN	99	10.5	19	8.5
Alexander OVECHKIN, WSH	194	20.3	28	7.7
Ilya KOVALCHUK, ATL	90	8.1	15	6.9
Eric STAAL, CAR	82	9.8	16	6.2
Alex TANGUAY, CGY	72	9.8	16	6.2
Joe NIEUWENDYK, FLA	58	6.0	12	6.0
Ruslan FEDOTENKO, TBL	74	9.1	15	5.9
Mike FISHER, OTT	81	8.1	14	5.9
Jonathan CHEECHOO, S.J	120	16.4	22	5.6
Pavel DATSYUK, DET	47	4.7	10	5.3

And on the opposite end of things, who took lots of wrist shots but failed to score last year?

**Worst Wrist Shooters, 2005-06**
Shooter	Shots	Exp. Goals	Act. Goals	Diff
Michal NYLANDER, NYR	91	13.9	7	-6.9
Tyler ARNASON, CHI/OTT	65	7.6	1	-6.6
Bill GUERIN, STL	69	8.5	3	-5.5
Jaroslav BALASTIK, CBJ	69	6.1	1	-5.1
Dominic MOORE, NYR	58	6.9	2	-4.9
Evgeni ARTYUKHIN, TBL	43	4.9	0	-4.9
John MADDEN, NJD	87	8.8	4	-4.8
Mike RICHARDS, PHI	74	7.7	3	-4.7
Milan HEJDUK, COL	146	17.6	13	-4.6
Alyn MCCAULEY, SJS	54	6.5	2	-4.5

Turning our attention to this year, let's see who's lighting the lamp...

**Top Wrist Shooters, Current Season**
Shooter	Actual Goals	Exp. Goals	Diff
Jordan STAAL, PIT	17	7.38	9.6
Joe SAKIC, COL	17	9.15	7.9
Chris CLARK, WSH	15	7.31	7.7
Mats SUNDIN, TOR	13	5.85	7.2
Sidney CROSBY, PIT	17	10.57	6.4
Kristian HUSELIUS, CGY	10	4.10	5.9
Glen MURRAY, BOS	11	5.16	5.8
Alexander OVECHKIN, WSH	20	14.28	5.7
Jozef STUMPEL, FLA	8	2.79	5.2
Daniel BRIERE, BUF	12	6.79	5.2

Those are some big-time names leading this list, from the rookie phenom Staal to accomplished veterans like Sakic and Sundin. The only carryovers from last year's list are Alex Ovechkin and the Staal parents (for Eric last year, and Jordan this season). One interesting name towards the bottom is that of Jozef Stumpel, currently serving out a sentence with the Florida Panthers. A recent shoulder injury notwithstanding, his ability to play center or wing could present an attractive option to teams looking for offensive depth heading into the playoffs.

Lastly, let's take a look at those shooters who perhaps would be better off passing the puck:

**Worst Wrist Shooters, Current Season**
Shooter	Actual Goals	Exp. Goals	Diff
Jaromir JAGR, NYR	10	16.47	-6.5
Mike RICHARDS, PHI	0	5.46	-5.5
Eric PERRIN, TBL	1	6.18	-5.2
Vaclav PROSPAL, TBL	4	9.18	-5.2
Henrik SEDIN, VAN	3	7.77	-4.8
Dustin BROWN, LAK	3	7.61	-4.6
Milan HEJDUK, COL	9	13.52	-4.5
Chris NEIL, OTT	2	6.40	-4.4
Dominic MOORE, PIT	1	5.07	-4.1
Nikolai ZHERDEV, CBJ	1	4.78	-3.8

Interestingly, Dominic Moore and Milan Hejduk are repeat offenders in this category. With Moore, this fact is even more disturbing when you consider that he went from the Rangers to the Penguins, so at least he's got new personnel to work with.

Tweet Comment 0 comments | 0 recs |