Putting Goalies on the Spot

Last week I dug into the offensive end of NHL shootouts, so now we need to give the goaltenders their due. As we consider goaltender success during the shootout, a significant aspect to contend with is the quantity of Missed Shots (roughly one out of eight shootout attempts misses the net entirely). Within the table below, I'm including them in a "Stop Pct.", since by definition, Missed Shots aren't included in a goaltender's regular save percentage. When it comes to the shootout, however, I'm inclined to give the netminder some credit for forcing the shooter into an untenable option. So let's get to the results, including the 2005-06 season, and this year up through the games of February 4:

Top 10 SO Goalies by Stop Pct.

Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Marc Denis, TBL	32	5	24	3	.844
Kari Lehtonen, ATL	39	7	28	4	.821
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR	63	12	40	11	.810
Rick DiPietro, NYI	67	16	48	3	.761
Tim Thomas, BOS	54	13	39	2	.759
Pascal LeClaire, CBJ	33	8	20	5	.758
Manny Fernandez, MIN	51	13	29	9	.745
Ryan Miller, BUF	43	11	25	7	.744
Marty Turco, DAL	55	15	29	11	.727
Mathieu Garon, LAK	29	8	19	2	.724

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.
EDIT: Corrected Ryan Miller's missed shots figure to 7, rather than 11 (typo). Thanks to Tim for the heads-up email.


Just as in the offensive analysis, we see a somewhat unexpected bunch of names here. None of the current Top 10 leaders in Save Percentage show up in this leaderboard.

And just as we broke down our shooters by nationality, let's take a look at the goaltending:

Stop Pct. by Country

Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Sweden	116	21	73	22	.819
Switzerland	61	18	31	12	.705
USA	279	84	165	30	.699
Canada	832	277	439	116	.667
Russia	44	16	24	4	.636
Czech Rep.	62	23	29	10	.629
South Africa	58	22	27	9	.621
Finland	186	74	90	22	.602
Slovakia	30	15	11	4	.500

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.

If you recall from last week's look at the shooters, the Finns were well out ahead of the rest of the pack. In goal, however, it's an entirely different story (and I'd bet they're not too happy about seeing the Swedes way up at the top). Perhaps the reason those Finnish shooters are performing so well is that they've got so much confidence after competing against lousy Finnish goaltenders? Hey, it's a theory...

Now here's where things get real interesting. Much as in baseball, where managers often pinch-hit to obtain the proper lefty/righty matchup between batter and pitcher, a detailed analysis here may suggest that NHL coaches should take just such a consideration when selecting snipers for the shootout. The table below shows shootout results based on the handedness of the shooter, versus the catching hand of the goaltender. Among goaltenders, about 90% of this action involves left-handed catching gloves, and among shooters, lefties make up about two-thirds. What the numbers suggest here is that coaches should, in general, select players who shoot with the same hand that the opposing goalie catches with. Against left-handed catchers, lefty shooters have a 9.1% better shooting percentage (37.3 - 28.2), and against right-handed catchers, right-handed shooters boast a 7.8% edge (32.8 - 25.0). Unless you've got one of the elite SO artists like Slava Kozlov, Jussi Jokinen, Paul Kariya, or a handful of others, NHL coaches would be wise to take advantage of this aspect of the matchup issue. As always, feel free to print out these results, and take them with you to the rink so you can yell them to the coach during crunch time. I'm sure he'll thank you!

Lefty/Righty SO Matchup Matrix

Matchup	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Shoot Pct.
L Shoot/L Goalie	971	362	37.3%
L Shoot/R Goalie	108	27	25.0%
R Shoot/L Goalie	577	163	28.2%
R Shoot/R Goalie	58	19	32.8%

Last, but not least... well, actually last and least, we present our list of the worst goaltending performers in the shootout. When you see these guys in the opposing net, feel free to chalk up that extra point in the standings:

Bottom 10 SO Goalies by Stop Pct.

Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Peter Budaj, COL	30	15	11	4	.500
Mikka Kiprusoff, CGY	33	16	11	6	.515
Dwayne Roloson, EDM	32	15	12	5	.531
Curtis Sanford, STL	27	12	13	2	.556
Marc-Andre Fleury, PIT	25	11	14	0	.560
Alexander Auld, FLA	30	13	13	4	.567
Dominik Hasek, DET	27	11	10	6	.593
Ed Belfour, FLA	34	13	19	2	.618
Olaf Kolzig, WSH	58	22	27	9	.621
Nikolai Khabibulin, CHI	37	13	20	4	.649

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.
EDIT: Yikes! Another typo! Hasek faced 27 attempts, not 10 as originally posted. Thanks to Ian for holding my toes to the fire...