Who Scores Alone?

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 26, 2007 10:24 PM EDT

So sayeth the Muse, "it takes two to make a thing go right." In the NHL, that translates to elite scorers who rely upon particular playmakers to set them up. Which elite snipers are most reliant on particular linemates? Let's take a look inside the numbers from the 2006-7 NHL regular season.

The following is a list of those prominent goal scorers (anyone with 20 or more goals last season) in order of their reliance on a particular teammate for the 1st assist on their goals. In other words, what portion of their total goals came directly after a specific teammate played the puck? May I have the envelope please...

Top 30 Goal-Scorers Ranked by Reliance
Scorer	Goals	Top 1st Assist Man	Assists	Pct
Daniel Sedin, VAN	36	Henrik Sedin, VAN	20	55.6%
Slava Kozlov, ATL	28	Marian Hossa, ATL	15	53.6%
Jason Pominville, BUF	34	Daniel Briere, BUF	17	50.0%
Chris Kunitz, ANA	25	Teemu Selanne, ANA	12	48.0%
Milan Michalek, SJS	26	Joe Thornton, SJS	12	46.2%
Dainius Zubrus, WSH	24	Alex Ovechkin, WSH	11	45.8%
Marian Gaborik, MIN	30	Pavol Demitra, MIN	13	43.3%
Martin Straka, NYR	29	Michal Nylander, NYR	12	41.4%
Jonathan Cheechoo, SJS	37	Joe Thornton, SJS	15	40.5%
Michael Ryder, MTL	30	Saku Koivu, MTL	12	40.0%
Trent Hunter, NYI	20	Mike Sillinger, NYI	8	40.0%
Martin St. Louis, TAM	43	Vincent Lecavalier, TAM	17	39.5%
Damond Langkow, CGY	33	Jarome Iginla, CGY	13	39.4%
Zack Parise, NJD	31	Travis Zajac, NJD	12	38.7%
Alexei Ponikarovsky, TOR	21	Mats Sundin, TOR	8	38.1%
Paul Kariya, NSH	24	Martin Erat, NSH	9	37.5%
Marco Sturm, BOS	27	Patrice Bergeron, BOS	10	37.0%
Petr Sykora, EDM	22	Ales Hemsky, EDM	8	36.4%
Alex Tanguay, CGY	22	Jarome Iginla, CGY	8	36.4%
Mike Fisher, OTT	22	Daniel Alfredsson, OTT	8	36.4%
Joe Sakic, COL	36	Andrew Brunette, COL	13	36.1%
Dany Heatley, OTT	50	Jason Spezza, OTT	18	36.0%
Daniel Alfredsson, OTT	29	Dany Heatley, OTT	10	34.5%
Ray Whitney, CAR	32	Rod Brind'Amour, CAR	11	34.4%
Sidney Crosby, PIT	36	Mark Recchi, PIT	12	33.3%
Mark Recchi, PIT	24	Sidney Crosby, PIT	8	33.3%
Patrik Elias, NJD	21	Scott Gomez, NJD	7	33.3%
Jason Spezza, OTT	34	Dany Heatley, OTT	11	32.4%
Steve Sullivan, NSH	22	J.P. Dumont, NSH	7	31.8%
Teemu Selanne, ANA	48	Andy McDonald, ANA	15	31.2%

While it's no surprise to see the Sedin twins atop this list, there are a few noteworthy entries in this table that warrant your attention. Notice, for example, how the Ottawa top line of Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson are intertwined, and how the playmaking skills of Joe Thornton are so vital to the production of both Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo. Take special notice, as well, of players who have changed teams - how will Dainius Zubrus fare without Alex Ovechkin, or Jason Pominville without Daniel Briere? Will Martin Straka miss Michal Nylander, or Patrik Elias miss Scott Gomez? While it's possible that they'll find new linemates with which they'll develop the ever-elusive "chemistry," I wouldn't bet on it. But what about the opposite end of this scale? Which goal scorers relied the least upon a specific teammate for that First Assist?

Top 30 Goal Scorers Ranked by Independence
Scorer	Goals	Top 1st Assist Man	Assists	Pct
Patrick Sharp, CHI	20	6 players	2	10.0%
Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL	42	Slava Kolzov, ATL	6	14.3%
Scott Walker, CAR	21	Eric Staal, CAR	3	14.3%
Miroslav Satan, NYI	27	Viktor Kozlov, NYI	4	14.8%
Shane Doan, PHX	27	Steve Reinprecht, PHX	4	14.8%
Mats Sundin, TOR	27	Kaberle & Tucker	4	14.8%
Matthew Lombardi, CGY	20	4 players	3	15.0%
Martin Havlat, CHI	25	Keith & Vrbata	4	16.0%
Erik Cole, CAR	29	Stillman & Whitney	5	17.2%
Alex Ovechkin, WSH	46	Dainius Zubrus, WSH	8	17.4%
Mike Modano, DAL	22	Lehtinen & Lindros	4	18.2%
Patrice Bergeron, BOS	22	Marc Savard, BOS	4	18.2%
Alexander Semin, WSH	38	Alex Ovechkin, WSH	7	18.4%
Lee Stempniak, STL	27	Bill Guerin, STL	5	18.5%
Chris Drury, BUF	37	Daniel Briere, BUF	7	18.9%
Mike Sillinger, NYI	26	Trent Hunter, NYI	5	19.2%
Nathan Horton, FLA	31	Olli Jokinen, FLA	6	19.4%
Bill Guerin, STL	36	Doug Weight, STL	7	19.4%
Alexander Frolov, LAK	35	Mike Cammalieri, LAK	7	20.0%
Jaromir Jagr, NYR	30	Michal Nylander, NYR	6	20.0%
Chris Clark, WSH	30	3 players	6	20.0%
Brad Richards, TAM	25	Martin St. Louis, TAM	5	20.0%
Ryan Getzlaf, ANA	25	Chris Perry, ANA	5	20.0%
Stephen Weiss, FLA	20	Martin Gelinas, FLA	4	20.0%
Gary Roberts, FLA	20	Olli Jokinen, FLA	4	20.0%
Dan Boyle, TAM	20	Lecavalier & Richards	4	20.0%
Mike Cammalieri, LAK	34	Anze Kopitar, LAK	7	20.6%
Dustin Penner, ANA	29	Marchant & Perry	6	20.7%
Pavel Datsyuk, DET	27	Tomas Holmstrom, DET	6	22.2%
Ryan Smyth, EDM	36	Shawn Horcoff, EDM	8	22.2%

Taking the reverse analytical angle from above, it's impressive how these individuals light the lamp without leaning on a particular playmaker, especially leading goal-scorers like Kovalchuk & Ovechkin.

This kind of reasoning leads to some interesting considerations for game-by-game analysis. When facing the Canucks, does it make sense to focus on denying Henrik Sedin the puck, so he can't set up his goal-scoring brother? That might prove more effective than putting a shadow on Daniel. Conversely, those scorers on the second list seem to be more adaptable in creating shots for themselves and deserve the full attention of an opposing defense.

Tweet Comment 4 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

This stat should rely heavily on how much the coach juggled the lines. You can only score with those your on the ice with and the more time you spend with a player the more likely you'll score from their assist. It would be a pain but you could some how weight TOI with a given player and the propensity to score with said player but I wouldn't twiddle with it. It is just something to keep in the back of your mind when reading the stat. In particular I wonder about the Spezza/Heatley/Alferdson since the numbers are close to a third. How much time did they have to score with from assists generated from other forwards.

by Mogen_david on Aug 27, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting analysis. Odd that Iginla would figure in close to 30% of Langkow's goals even though they didn't tend to play together at ES last year...

by Kent W. on Aug 27, 2007 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

mogen_david, I think the time-on-ice factor would come into play when trying to assess the "chemistry" between a given set of players. For this purpose, I'm not too concerned whether Scorer A spent more time with Playmaker B vs. Playmaker C, but rather just where the greatest number of his goals came from.

Now, what you're suggesting would indeed be useful if you could point out to a coach that when Scorer A was on the ice with Playmaker B, their scoring rate per minute of ice time was greatly improved over Playmaker C. I suspect (or would hope) that teams already use those factors in their analysis, they just don't make it very easy for us humble amateurs to work with the raw data.

by The Forechecker on Aug 27, 2007 8:24 PM EDT reply actions

Forechecker, you are right but you then draw conclusions implying chemistry.
"Notice, for example, how the Ottawa top line of Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson are intertwined, and how the playmaking skills of Joe Thornton are so vital to the production of both Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo."
Some of the intertwining of Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson is related to the amount of time they spent together (Desjardins has Spezza playing with Heatley 90% of the time). In the case of SJ and Thornton your right that Thornton drives the front line but since Cheechoo spent very little time with out Thornton (Desjardins has him with Thornton for 70% of his ice time) it should come as no surprise that the majority of his goals came from Thronton. Michalek on the other hand spent about 40% with Thornton and 37% with Marleau. Making your argument stronger. Like I said I just see TOI shared as something that will influence the stat. Just something that colors your interpretation like team defense colors your interpretation when comparing straight GAA for goalies. Or line matching/opponents influence how you interpret plus/minus. Of course a lot of this argument is just me defending my idea and not a disagreement with your methods or conclusions.
Having watched a lot of Sharks Hockey last year the Thornton effect is pronounced (I wonder about the Crosby effect might be fun to look at the assistants and see ho many are reliant on a particular goal scorer and how many are pure playmakers).

by mogen_david on Aug 28, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions