Predictions for the 2007-8 NHL Season, Part One

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 3, 2007 10:39 AM EDT

With today's North American launch to the 2007-8 NHL season, it's high time to chip in with the obligatory predictions. So here we go...

Eastern Conference Standings

1. Ottawa Senators (NE champ)

2. Florida Panthers (SE champ)

3. Pittsburgh Penguins (ATL champ)

4. New York Rangers

5. Atlanta Thrashers

6. Buffalo Sabres

7. Toronto Maple Leafs

8. New York Islanders

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9. New Jersey Devils

10. Washington Capitals

11. Montreal Canadiens

12. Carolina Hurricanes

13. Philadelphia Flyers

14. Tampa Bay Lightning

15. Boston Bruins

Western Conference Standings

1. Detroit Red Wings (CEN champ & President's Trophy)

2. Anaheim Ducks (PAC champ)

3. Calgary Flames (NW champ)

4. San Jose Sharks

5. Minnesota Wild

6. Dallas Stars

7. Nashville Predators

8. Vancouver Canucks

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9. Colorado Avalanche

10. Columbus Blue Jackets

11. Los Angeles Kings

12. St. Louis Blues

13. Edmonton Oilers

14. Chicago Blackhawks

15. Phoenix Coyotes

The basic idea here was to take a rough cut and predicting Goals For and Against for each team, running that through PythagenPuck to get an approximation of points in the standings, and that plugging in additional points for Shootout Victories and overtime losses (sometimes you lose 4-3 in regulation and get no points, sometimes you lose 4-3 in OT and get one). In the end, it's a combination of seat-of-the-pants guesswork and formulaic balancing, so it's got a whiff of scientific application along with standard barstool bluster.

I guess what surprised me a little bit was seeing Calgary and Florida come out so highly, but the common denominator there is solid goaltending and at least a decent offensive punch. Some of the other teams with confidence in net are crippled with more anemic attacks (like Dallas, Vancouver, Minnesota and New Jersey).

In the Western Conference, it was interesting to see the results of this analysis match up with hunches that I posted a few weeks ago in response to Mirtle's playoff prediction poll. I thought at the time that Colorado would miss out, and that line of reasoning still holds true. I think adding Ryan Smyth only augments an area of the team that was already strong, while the addition of Scott Hannan isn't that much of an upgrade to a defense that lost it's leading +/- player in Ken Klee.

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Comments

Dude, are you high? The Panthers winning their division? Because of Vokoun? The Leafs and the Islanders (two teams that have done NOTHING to improve, and no Toskala isn't much of an upgrade for TOR) in the playoffs over Washington and Carolina?! Or even Philly? Dude, are you high?

by Anonymous on Oct 3, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

As far as the Panthers go, they've got plenty of young talent that's improving, and Vokoun is a big upgrade at the most important position on the team. The Southeast was a fairly close division last year, and I see Florida making the biggest jump.

I like some of the things that Washington is doing, but I don't see much of an improvement defensively there.

by The Forechecker on Oct 3, 2007 10:45 PM EDT reply actions