A Hart-Breaking Issue

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 26, 2007 4:06 PM EST

It's been a couple weeks, so the Penalty Plus/Minus numbers have been refreshed to capture the NHL games up through Sunday night, November 25. Alexander Ovechkin has taken the lead over Sidney Crosby, with a +18 to Sid's +15. We still see this list overwhelmingly dominated by big-name talent, as opposed to energetic grinders.

Perhaps one way to use this new metric is to provide another factor for the Hart Trophy debate; after all, if you're focusing on the top players in the league in order to figure out who should be the MVP, you might start with the current scoring leaders:

**NHL Scoring leaders as of Nov. 26, 200**
POS	Player	TM	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
C	Vincent Lecavalier	TAM	23	16	22	38	10
C	Sidney Crosby	PIT	23	12	21	33	3
LW	Ilya Kovalchuk	ATL	23	19	14	33	4
LW	Henrik Zetterberg	DET	23	16	16	32	10

Convincing arguments could go in any number of directions from here. Lecavalier is our leading scorer, but Sid's close behind and the reigning MVP. Kovalchuk is leading a resurgent post-Hartley Thrashers team, and Zetterberg is a dynamic two-way star on the best team in the Western Conference. But let's bring Penalty Plus/Minus into the mix...

**Penalty Plus-Minus for NHL Scoring Leaders**
POS	Player	TM	Committed	Drawn	Penalty +/-
C	Vincent Lecavalier	TAM	11	10	+1
C	Sidney Crosby	PIT	24	9	+15
LW	Ilya Kovalchuk	ATL	8	4	+4
LW	Henrik Zetterberg	DET	17	5	+12

Now we start to see some separation; Crosby and Zetterberg aren't just lighting the lamp themselves, but they're also putting their respective teams in better position to succeed by drawing penalties and generating power plays. Lecavalier and Kovalchuk aren't doing so to anywhere near the same degree. While some may scoff and say that creating 15 extra power plays may only result in 3 or 4 extra goals for a given team, one has to remember the defensive component as well; not only does the team on the PP stand a decent chance at scoring a goal, but they also enjoy the benefit of their opponent striving merely to clear the zone and rag time off the clock.

Vincent Lecavalier in Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue 2003

Penalty to Vincent Lecavalier, 2 Minutes for Holding...

As we head into the later stages of the season, it will be interesting to see how this leaderboard changes over time. Since this is a new metric, there's nothing to say that current trends will hold true throughout the rest of the year. Opposing defenses could start hauling down Lecavalier to prevent his scoring chances, or Crosby could get frustrated with Pittsburgh's on-ice disappointments and take more penalties himself.

And for the curious, Sean Avery currently stands at 11 penalties drawn against 8 committed, for a +3 figure. As the poster child for the question of whether agitators commit or draw more penalties, his numbers will be followed closely.

Tweet Comment 4 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

The first thing that sprang to my mind about Avery was "who is he agitating?" If he's drawing penalties from talented players, even if he is taking a similar number of his own, you can argue that his style of play is paying off, at least when his penalty is coincident with a skilled player. If he's goading grinders and enforcers into penalties while still sitting a lot himself, then not so much.

by false_cause on Nov 26, 2007 5:39 PM EST reply actions

Interesting point, in that if you can rattle the other team's star player that's definitely to your team's advantage, but Avery's agent basically argued over the summer in a salary arbitration that his client generates offense for the Rangers above and beyond the typical Goals & Assists statistics, simply by creating power play opportunities for New York.

This list excludes coincidental penalties, so it strictly measures who's drawing (or committing) calls that affect the number of players on the ice.

In other words, who cares who the guy is that slashed you, as long as it puts us up a man, that's the important thing.

by The Forechecker on Nov 26, 2007 5:46 PM EST reply actions

Good stuff Forecheck.

If hockey writers were progressive (and we know they aren't) they would take this into consideration when they vote for awards.

Do you have any of this info in team-by-team format? I would be interested in looking at the numbers for my Avs

by Jibblescribbits on Nov 27, 2007 12:32 PM EST reply actions

For a team-by-team view, you can take the data in the Google Spreadsheeet (follow the link "Penalty Plus/Minus" in the article) and summarize that way, understanding a couple caveats:

1) The sum total of these values will remain below zero, due to penalties that are Committed by a player, but aren't Drawn by a particular opponent (i.e. Delay of Game), and

2) This doesn't include bench minors like Too Many Men.

by The Forechecker on Nov 27, 2007 1:40 PM EST reply actions