How Hard Is The Road Ahead?

by Dirk Hoag on Jan 18, 2008 4:28 PM EST

With NHL playoff races tight in both conferences, one factor that could help decide who makes it and who doesn't is Strength of Schedule. In order to help sort this issue out, I've updated the NHL Super Schedule so that the metrics for opponent strength (Win Percentage, Goals For, Goals Against, etc.) have been updated with team values through the games of January 17, 2008. There is also a new field at the far right (Date Value) which can be used to sort and select based on dates, so for example today being January 18, 2008, that translates to 39465 in that column. You can download your own copy of the spreadsheet from Google into Excel, OpenOffice Calc, or whatever spreadsheet program you like, and hammer away at the numbers yourself.

So who's got the hardest and easiest rows to hoe as we come into the final half of the 2007-8 Regular Season? Instead of focusing on Opponent's Win Percentage (which is horribly skewed by the standings point awarded for OT/SO Losses), I prefer to take the ratio of Opponents Goals For/Goals Against, as I believe that to be a better indicator of whether your favorite team is likely to fare well against that foe. For instance, Edmonton's number of shootout wins helps them to a .490 Win Percentage, but their GF/GA is a lousy 0.83, tied for worst in the league with Tampa Bay; chances are, opponents are picking up at least a point each night against the Oilers. The following table reflects data for the games of January 19 through the end of the regular season:

Relatively speaking, the Southeast Division boasts the easiest opposition (hardly shocking, since they play each other so much), claiming 5 out of the top 6 spots. On the opposite end you'll see many of the Central Division teams near the bottom, a further demonstration of how that group has improved as a whole. Among the Western Conference contenders, Minnesota and Vancouver stand out as perhaps having a clearer road to the playoffs than Nashville, Columbus and Chicago. Over in the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia enjoys a softer schedule than its Atlantic Division counterparts, whereas Toronto faces a more difficult slate of games than the rest of the Northeast.

Granted, with 33-38 games remaining for each team, there is still a wide enough variety of opposition to keep these numbers relatively close across the league; as the season winds down, wider seperation will develop, so I'll update this table regularly as the playoffs approach.

I hope you'll find this tool useful for analyzing your own team's stretch run, and if you have any additions or modifications you'd like to see made to this resource, just drop a note in the comments and I'll see what I can do.

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Neat! Well done.

by Mojo Tooth on Jan 18, 2008 7:27 PM EST reply actions

This is a cool idea, but I can see at least one way to improve this as an analytical tool. Somehow, you need to account for the fact that teams cannot play themselves. For example, it's not surprising that LA should have the hardest remaining schedule, since they're the weakest team in the league and their division is otherwise pretty strong. The same thing goes for the teams in the Central. All of them have "harder" schedules ahead because they have to play Detroit. Meanwhile Detroit's schedule is comparatively much easier because they don't have to play themselves.

While there may be some way to eliminate this problem mathematically, I think an easier fix would be to eliminate intra-divisional games from the matrix altogether. For example, take teams like Washington and Philly in tightly-packed divisions such as the Atlantic or Southeast. The record of intra-divisional opponents is going to hover somewhere close enough around .500 as to be statistically insignificant. Moreover, the record of the team in question highly influences the direction and size of that deviation.

The strength of the non-divisional opponents these teams have to face is more significant from an analytical perspective, in my opinion. Analyzing extra-divisional games eliminates some of the 'noise' created by teams' inability to play themselves.

For example, as a fan of the Caps, I'm more interested in whether or not the Caps have to play a remaining non-divisional schedule heavy on weaker opponents (LA, Toronto and Edmonton) or stronger ones (Philly, Ottawa, Detroit). Again, this is because I know that the Canes, Panthers and Thrashers have roughly the same intra-divisional schedule as the Caps, which should more or less balance out over the course of the season.

All that said, you've provided a great foundation for further thought. Thanks for the hard work.

by Christopher on Jan 25, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions