Game Day Preview: Nashville Predators @ Dallas Stars
Tonight in Dallas, the Stars will try and exact revenge for an Opening Night shootout loss the Predators dropped on them, while Nashville will look to regain momentum after two straight defeats featuring an anemic offense.
After the jump, let's break down the matchup...
In Our Last Episode...
The Predators and Stars met for the first time this season on Saturday, October 3rd, as the Preds jumped out to a 2-0 lead. Dallas battled back to tie it, but Nashville ultimately prevailed in the shootout on a goal by Mike Santorelli, and outstanding work by Dan Ellis in goal. Recall the highlights...
Meet The Enemy
Brandon from Defending Big D provides the following scouting report on Dallas:
It's been déjà vu for Stars fans this season, with three of the four games ending in shootout losses. While Marty Turco hasn't been terrible, it's been frustrating to see his obvious unease in net and the tentativeness the defense has played with in front of him. With Alex Auld in net against the Flames there was a different feel to the team, as Auld was solid and made several great saves early as the Stars took advantage of a tired Calgary team in a 5-2 win.
What's been most disturbing is the way the Stars' penalty kill has become their biggest weakness. They are at the bottom of the NHL currently and allowed two more power play goals against Vancouver as the unit looked worse and worse. What started off as an aggressive strategy when the team went a man down evolved into ‘let's watch them pass the puck with ease and not do anything about it'. Some speculate that Crawford is using too many of his skill players on the unit who aren't keen about throwing their bodies into the shooting lanes, and the team is really starting to miss players like Stu Barnes (retired) and Nik Hagman (in Toronto).
It's not all doom and gloom; the Stars have yet to actually lose a game and have looked pretty good for long stretches. Jamie Benn and James Neal lead a group of talented and exciting young forwards for the Stars, and Brad Richards is once again leading the team in points. After a long, spirited practice where the team got back to basics on Tuesday it will interesting to see how they respond against Nashville.
A lousy penalty kill? That might be just what the doctor would order for an ailing Predators power play...
On the injury front, Mike Modano and Steve Ott are not expected to play.
Meet The Good Guys
The line shuffling has begun, and based on the report at The Tennessean yesterday, the Nashville lines may look as follows:
Santorelli - Legwand - Jones
J.P. Dumont is slowly but surely recovering from the hit he took in the season opener, while Jordin Tootoo is still a ways from coming back.
I am a bit surprised to see Jones moved up alongside Legwand, but this may not be a promotion, depending on how the ice time shakes out. If it works like it did on Monday, I might have to swap those 2nd and 3rd lines around entirely.
Frankly, I think this could be an exciting move; if Wilson can anchor a 2nd offensive line and spark decent production out of Erat, that frees up Legwand to play the shutdown role, something that he should be well-suited for.
Even Strength Play
In 5-on-5 action, the Stars have outscored opponents 9-4, the 2nd best ratio in the NHL behind Buffalo, and they are winning the Shots On Goal battle by a 29-23.1 margin per 60 minutes of play. Nashville, on the other hand, has been outscored 7-5, with a dead-even 29.8 Shots per 60 minutes, For and Against (all data from Behind the Net).
In other words, baton down the hatches, boys. The Stars will be coming in waves, and the Preds need to look for opportunities to create turnovers and take them the other way.
Dallas PP vs. Nashville PK
The Stars are 4-of-19 with the man advantage, a middling but productive rate (21%). The Preds PK stands at 73.3% (20th) currently, so this part of the matchup is really up for grabs.
Nashville PP vs. Dallas PK
This will be a battle of two struggling special teams units; the Predators are a mere 1-for-13 (7.7%) on the power play so far (after that PP goal less than two minutes into the first game, they've come up dry), 29th in the NHL. On the other hand, the Stars have given up a whopping 7 goals in 16 shorthanded situations, a 56.2% PK rate that is worst in the league. They will also miss Steve Ott, who is 2nd among Dallas forwards with 2:13 of shorthanded ice time per game.
There's no way the Stars will stay at that low PK rate for very long, but one more game wouldn't hurt, right?
Goaltending
Dan Ellis gets the start for the Preds; he stopped 38 of 40 shots against Dallas in the previous matchup, along with 4 of 5 attempts in the shootout.
Marty Turco has an all-time 11-6-2 record against the Predators, along with a 1.99 GAA in 20 games.
Summary
There's no question that David Legwand and Martin Erat are in the spotlight for Predators fans, as the team needs them to provide consistent scoring punch if they have any chance of making the playoffs. Will a reshuffled lineup and an opponent who is struggling on the PK provide the cure for what ails the Preds? We'll find out tonight...
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Comments
Legwand and Erat
I honestly thought that the sportswriters who picked us to be 14th or 15th in the division were nuts but now I don’t know. I love the team as much as ever but i’m skeptical with the way our D is giving up goals and nobody but our 1st line is scoring. Hopefully Wilson will give us a boost. I like Goc and Guite but Jones doesn’t look like he did last year. I think Ward will get back to his old form soon which is a bonus. What I miss most is the Preds physical play which doesn’t seem the same. I know Tootoo is out but there seems to be a much smaller physical presence with this team so far. Maybe i’m wrong. I think Dallas is going to go extra hard tonight for revenge on their home opener.
GO PREDS!
Legwand and Erat
Oh, I forgot. Both of those guys are getting WAY OVERPAID for what their value added. We could pay a couple grinders to do what those two are doing. MAN UP LEGWAND AND ERAT!
I like the lines that SLake put together yesterday:
Sullivan – Arnott – Hornqvist
Erat – Wilson – Ward
Santorelli – Legwand – Jones
Smithson – Goc – Guite/Belak
Nice combination of speed and one “net-crasher” (Hornqvist, Ward and Jones) on each of the top three lines. Wilson with Erat and Ward feels like a good fit.
And is anyone else impressed with Goc? He appears to be a very capable player judging from the first few games. I’d actually like him centering Jones and Santorelli on the third line and dropping Legwand all the way down (isn’t it about time to give up on him?).
If I wasn’t going to scratch Legwand (like I would tonight) , I think this is our best line combos for tonight
by Smashvillian on Oct 14, 2009 2:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was the closest...
Forechecker,
As I said yesterday, I wouldn’t vote for any of those lines suggested and put up my own idea which was actually the closest to the actual lineup for tonight. What do I win? Can you give me back some of those points you took me for last week in the OTF Fantasy Hockey league? ;-)
Don’t honestly understand scratching Goc for Guite, but like the lineup for tonight with our current resources. I’m hoping that Trotz will actually give both the second and third lines about equal ES time and take big time minutes away from the fourth line (they will get their minutes on the PK and Belak will take a shift or two to pound away at Barch).
Defensive pairings should also be interesting to watch to start and then as the game progresses. The second pairing of Hamhuis and Klein has not been successful and Bouillon has probably been our third best defender overall. Will we see a change amonst the bottom 4 D as we saw in the second half against Edmonton? WIll Laakso pair with Hamhuis and Klein with Bouillon or will we stick with what we’ve gone with thus far and tell them to make it work?
Games at Dallas are always challenging and tonight will be no exception. Ellis has got to exude confidence from the net out, the defense needs to communicate better and simplify their game, and the forwards have got to show an urgency to get pucks and bodies to the net whenever we cross over that far blue line…
Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...
Wilson..
I’m excited to see Wilson play. I think we can expect to see a great performance by him tonight, I think he will take advantage of Legwand and Erat’s slump.
by Smashvillian on Oct 14, 2009 2:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Powerplay troubles...
Two things that must be addressed:
1) Sullivan and Erat have got to realize that teams have picked up on tape that they like to carry the puck up through the middle of the ice on a breakout and rarely do they make a pass to elude the first forechecker, but instead try to deke through them. The two of them need to keep their head up through the NZ and either make a pass to an open teammate or dump the puck deep and get after it with speed (Suter does this the best). The PP cannot be successful until full team control of the puck (puck settled, puck-carrier facing the goal) is achieved. Trying to carry the puck in all the time up the middle with the only option across the blueline to move it backwards to the wing traps the other four skaters at the blueline and makes it easy to defend because of the lack of depth to the attack.
2) When we get full team control of the puck established in the zone, THOSE WITHOUT THE PUCK MUST MOVE THEIR FEET!!! Far too often over the past three years we have been caught, "standing on “X’s” on the PP leading to forced passes and bad turnovers. If you do not have movement with or away from the puck-carrier, the PK can stand still in the passing and shooting lane and eliminate all options very easily. Jones is particularly bad at this when he is standing in front of the net on the PP. When the puck is on the halfboards, the player at the net should pop out to the corner to provide an outlet for the puck carrier and create a two-on-one with the strong side defender. There are plenty of other options as well, but this was a very successful one with Kariya and Legwand working it to perfection in the past. The puck-carrier is far too often criticized for a weak turnover when in fact it is his teammates that provide no passing options and are standing still in a spot that renders them useless.
Extra word of advice tonight is to remember that Turco loves to play the puck, arguably as much as any other netminder in the league, therefore on all dump-ins make sure they are either high on the glass, cross-corner, or soft chip-ins down the boards to keep the puck away from the 3rd defender Dallas loves to utilize…
Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

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