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Searching for answers on the Nashville Predators' blueline

With Nashville's defensive difficulties of late, and today's recall of Cody Franson, speculation is naturally growing about how the defense pairings should look.

Do the defense pair of Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein (each a -7 so far) bear the brunt of the blame? Should one of them be scratched or traded, while guys like Francis Bouillon and Teemu Laakso are moved up?

To help answer that question, let's look inside the numbers...

Star-divide

The following data comes from Behind the Net, and relates to 5-on-5 play only. Next to each player I've noted which pairing they've generally played on:

 NAME TOI/60 RATING GFON/60 GAON/60 SFON/60 SAON/60 CORSI
 Ryan Suter -1
17.59 +4.06 2.84 1.71 31.3 25.6 +15.9
 Shea Weber -1
18.87 +4.1 2.65 1.59 28.1 25.4 +14.8
 Dan Hamhuis -2
17.88 -3.91 0.56 4.47 26.3 20.1 +3.4
 Kevin Klein -2
15.66 -4.47 0 4.47 23.6 19.2 -4.47
 Teemu Laakso -3
10.89 +0.68 0.92 1.84 16.5 36.7 -22.04
 Francis Bouillon -3
16.24 -0.61 0 1.85 17.9 32.0 -22.79

Let's take these columns one at a time:

TOI/60: A simple measure of ice time per game; this tells us that Teemu Laakso is playing a lesser role (to no surprise, given his rookie status). One column I didn't add in here (for space purposes) was the Quality of Competition; to sum up those values, it suffices to say that Suter & Weber face the toughest opponents, and that Laakso faces the easiest by far. Again, no surprise there in sheltering the rookie.

RATING: This tells us, per 60 minutes of 5-on-5, the impact on Goals For and Against that each player has had. Little surprise here, to see the top pair standing out, the bottom pair middling, and the 2nd pair awful.

GF ON/60: How many Goals For are being scored by the Predators per 60 minutes of play when each of these guys is on the ice. Again, matching what our eyes are telling us, the top pair is doing OK but the rest are doing terribly.

GA ON/60: The same thing, but for Goals Against. Hamhuis and Klein are getting lit up like a Christmas tree.

SF ON/60: How many Shots On Goal are being fired by the Preds, prorated to 60 minutes of play. The bottom pairing starts to stick out, as team offensive output drops by nearly half as compared to the other units.

SA ON/60: More bad news for that bottom pairing; shots are coming hot and heavy at the Nashville net when they're out on the ice.

CORSI: The balance of Total Shots (which includes Missed and Blocked) when each player is on the ice. This falls right in line with the Shots On Goal view; the 3rd pair is facing a shooting gallery, while the top pair is driving the play forward. The second pair is basically breaking even.

Bottom line? I'm not sure there's good evidence to show that promoting either Teemu Laakso or Francis Bouillon into a larger role makes any sense at this time. Laakso, in particular, is facing the easiest opposition but is having some of the worst results in terms of driving Shots For and Against. With Bouillon, one can make the argument that he's still rounding into game shape after having started training camp so late; but that argument only buys him some time, it doesn't let him off the hook.

Does something need to change with the Predators' defense? Absolutely; the gaffes we've seen of late (almost all of which have involved the Klein/Hamhuis pair) have been awful. It doesn't matter if you play 15 minutes of sound defense, only to have a couple brain cramps that lead to easy goals for your opponent.

So let me toss something different out there for consideration; what if the Suter/Weber pairing were broken up? Perhaps Hamhuis/Weber and Suter/Klein might allow one of Suter and Weber to be on the ice for most of the game, taking a leading role while their partner backs them up. It's an idea...

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One problem...

Dirk, as a lover of stats myself, we have to be careful with them- particularly at early stages of the season where the sample size of data is small.

If the pairings are consistent, statistics would tend to average out between the pair somewhat- which is why the stats are almost equal for each pair.

Our eyes have shown us, however, that a Hamhuis-Bouillon pairing (used late in the first couple of games) was pretty effective.

I suspect, that before Trotz breaks up Weber and Suter, he’ll go back to giving more key minutes to a Hamhuis-Bouillon pairing late into games (if the team can be assured they are over the first period onslaughts).

Weber and Suter may ultimately be split up, but for team that has been outscored this much, there’s a reason they still have a positive +/-.

It will be interesting to see how Trotz handles this. I’m curious if they wish they had kept Ryan Ellis on the roster.

My Blog @ http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/?author=59

by David Singleton on Oct 16, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Ellis wasn't ready...

Ryan Ellis wasn’t prepared to go through an NHL season at this point. They kept him as long as possible to get him as much experience as possible, but he simply wasn’t forcing his way onto the roster quite yet.

Needs to get stronger and continue to develop his game at both ends of the ice. Unfortunately, right now he is sitting out with a broken wrist, but he’ll learn from watching and I’m sure take it in stride…

Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

by SLake on Oct 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I Agree

It’s just that sometimes, when desperation is nipping at you and trying to take control, it’s funny the thoughts one may have.

Trotz appears to be really impressed by what he has seen from Ellis (and so was I in the little that I saw in camp). I was just thinking out loud about if Trotz ever thinks “Ellis is no worse than right now, we should have kept him and let him grow in Nashville”. Ellis’s strengths are exactly where we are having issues: hockey sense and being positionally sound. Just idle curiousity on my part.

My Blog @ http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/?author=59

by David Singleton on Oct 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m definitely sensitive to reading too much into stats based on only six games, but I’ll stick by my main point that I don’t see any convincing evidence that larger roles for Bouillon or Laakso are going to help.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 16, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

trade?

im hoping the rumor of a trade of hammer for a forward is the reason for the call up. certainly i hope we dont split suter and weber, but could klein and a rookie along w/ boullion and a rookie work? actually it cant get much worse.

by predswilrule on Oct 16, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

ZoneStart

Desjardins added the faceoffs attended by zone (offensive/defensive/neutral) to behindthenet. I found that, especially for Defensemen, it is a useful tool to qualify Corsi, who in itself can be misleading, for every coach has a different pecking order for offensive and defensive zone situation. An example: Komisarek had a brutal Corsi last year for the habs, moreso than his linemate Markov; looking at zone starts, you see that they both were on the ice for a massive number of defensive zone draws compared to their teammates, and that Komisarek had 226 Offensive Zone Starts (against 328 for Markov).

(Bouillon was sheltered last year, mostly because he was asked to cover for the weaker Brisebois most of the season)

This year, you’ll notice that for the Predators , Suter and Weber are the heavy lifters when it comes to defensive zone starts. That makes sense and, I think, serve as a useful sniff test for the validity of the stat. Looking at Bouillon’s (30 OZone, 24 DZone) and Laakso’s (24 OZone 14 DZone) line, sitting from where I am (that is in an office in Québec City, having last seen the Predators play sometimes in 2008), if I add those to what you already established, it looks like Bouillon has the inside track for an audition on the second pairing if they decide to try some roster shuffling. It’s a total shot in the dark on my part, tough.

by Olivier on Oct 16, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks for the addition

Zone Start definitely adds to the information used here (which is almost always a good thing), but it’s a relatively minor component. I think I recall that an extra faceoff in a particular zone is worth about 0.25 Corsi.

In other words, if a guy got 10 extra Offensive Zone starts as opposed to Defensive, you’d want to subtract ~2.5 from his total Corsi value (then normalize it to 60 minutes of play, etc.).

But you’re right, when you bring Zone Starts into the mix Laakso’s numbers look even worse, and Hamhuis gets a bit of a boost.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 16, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

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