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Game Day Preview: Nashville Predators @ Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators' Alexei Kovalev, of Russia, celebrates with goaltender Pascal Leclaire and Daniel Alfredsson, of Sweden, after the Senators defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-1 in NHL hockey action Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Montreal. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz)

More photos » Ryan Remiorz - AP

3 months ago: Ottawa Senators' Alexei Kovalev, of Russia, celebrates with goaltender Pascal Leclaire and Daniel Alfredsson, of Sweden, after the Senators defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-1 in NHL hockey action Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Montreal. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz)

It's the old "out of the frying pan, into the fire" for the 2-5-1 Predators tonight  as they continue their road trip against the 5-2 Ottawa Senators.

The last time the Preds visited Ottawa (11/29/07), they enjoyed two huge wins; on the ice, they beat the Senators 6-5, while off the ice, the NHL Board of Governors approved the sale of the team to the current ownership group.

But enough reminiscing, let's get down to the matchups and see if there's a hero ready to step forward for Nashville...

Star-divide

Meet the Enemy

There was some murmuring that lingering injury concerns might keep star center Jason Spezza out of the lineup tonight, but it appears that he's ready to go. The big story over the summer, obviously, was the Dany Heatley saga, in which the prolific goal-scorer demanded a trade out of town, then tied his GM's hands by refusing to go to Edmonton once a deal was struck. Eventually he landed in San Jose, in exchange for Jonathan Cheechoo, Milan Michalek, and a second-round draft pick.

Michalek, at least, is off to a decent start with 4 goals in 7 games, while Cheechoo has just two assists. The other new face in town is winger Alex Kovalev, signed as a free agent for two years; he's tallied three goals and one assist so far.

The projected lines, courtesy of Silver Seven:

Kovalev-Fisher-Alfredsson
Michalek-Spezza-Cheechoo
Foligno-Regin-Neil
Ruutu-Shannon-Kelly
(inj: Winchester)
 
Phillips-Volchenkov
Picard-Karlsson
Carkner-Campoli
(inj: Kuba)

Meet the Good Guys

Splitting up the defense pair of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber appeared to pay dividends last night in Boston; the Preds were more consistently driving the play into the Bruins' end, and during the final minutes as Nashville became desperate for a tying goal, the pair was reunited to maximum effect.

Up front, the story continues to be an astounding lack of production from key players. The only goals last night both came due to forwards charging the net (David Legwand driving with Jerred Smithson shooting home a loose puck, Colin Wilson finishing a rebound chance from Patric Hornqvist). Can that formula be built upon to at least generate some short-term results? Nashville's high-skill forwards (Steve Sullivan, Martin Erat, and J.P. Dumont) have combined for a paltry two goals (both deflected in off opponents' skates), 0 assists, and 16 shots over the last three games.

Your Predators lineup:

Sullivan - O'Reilly -  Dumont

 Erat - Legwand Ward

Scatchard - WilsonHornqvist

Jones - Smithson - Goc

Bouillon Weber

Suter - Klein

Franson - Sulzer

Even Strength Play

 TEAM GP TOI GF GA GF/60 SF/60 Sht % GA/60 SA/60 Save Pct. +/- per 60
 Ottawa 7 320.6 16 13 3.0 31.2 9.60% 2.4 25.1 .903 0.6
 Nashville 8 389.4 10 17 1.5 25.1 6.10% 2.6 29.7 .912 -1.1

5-on-5 data from Behind the Net

Fairly daunting numbers so far, as Ottawa's offense is banging out twice as many goals, while giving up fewer than Nashville. The bright spot for the Preds has been goaltending. On defense, the team has settled down after blowout losses last week, but the offense is still lacking.

Ottawa PP vs. Nashville PK

The Senators, who enjoyed such a dynamic power play thanks to the Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson trio for the last few years, have fallen on hard times with the man advantage so far, puttering along at an 11.5% clip that is 29th in the NHL. Nashville's penalty kill is also uncharacteristically poor, ranking 28th with a 69.2% rate. They did fend off both chances in Boston last night.

Nashville PP vs. Ottawa PK

As mentioned above, Ottawa's PK is disappointing at 11.5%; for a bit of perspective that makes them more than 3 times as effective as Nashville, which is suffering through a laughably-bad 3.7% after last night's 0-for-3.

They might want to try Scatchard-Smithson-Belak up front, with Bouillon and Sulzer on the points, just to see what happens.

Goaltending

Remember at the end of the 2007-8 season, when the Columbus Blue Jackets were giddy over their amazing young goaltender, Pascal Leclaire? Well, a year later, they dumped Leclaire in favor of the next great thing, Steve Mason. Leclaire has gotten off to a good start in Ottawa, and may be able to settle down a goaltending situation that has been chaotic for many years.


Pascal Leclaire

#33 / Goalie / Ottawa Senators

6-2

200

Nov 07, 1982

GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Pascal Leclaire 6 359 4 2 13 2.17 158 145 .918 0


Based on the fact that he was good, but not particularly outstanding in goal last night, I'm guessing that Dan Ellis gets a rest tonight in favor of Pekka Rinne. Barry Trotz has gone to keeping his goalie selection a secret until closer to game time.


Pekka Rinne

#35 / Goalie / Nashville Predators

6-5

206

Nov 03, 1982

GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Pekka Rinne 4 191 0 3 11 3.46 104 93 .894 0

Summary

The road is getting tougher,with a top-notch opponent tonight, and a Saturday night game at Chicago coming up next. Nashville has plenty of questions, but few answers at the present time.

All we do know, is that the Predators need a hero tonight... do you think Bonnie Tyler might be able to pop in a few goals?


0 recs  |  Comment 20 comments |

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Forechecking, Lines, Power Play, Oh My!

Right now, this team isn’t playing a consistent defensive system, isn’t playing consistent lines (and the lines that are consistent aren’t effective for the entire game), and isn’t putting players in the best position to succeed.

At some point, with so many players “off” I expect the ultimate change will have to be made. In truth, as much as I like Barry Trotz as a person and coach, it’s hard to argue against that change.

That said, we’re not there yet. Here’s my attempt to simplify things defensively, provide an identity and bring the aggressiveness back to the ice.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some good thoughts...

but I don’t think Wilson’s ready for 1st-line duty yet. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if he might be better served getting heavy duty down in Milwaukee. While I like his strength and vision, his speed is just not NHL caliber quite yet. It’s a mighty big jump from the NCAA to the NHL, and it’s not like he had the reputation as a speed-burner at the college level, like Paul Kariya did.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 22, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe, but...

Wilson looked good to me. He’s been one of our best players overall.

He’s only looked lost in that one game where Trotz pulled names from a hat for lines.

Besides, it can’t get much worse.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Lines

Something happen to Scatchard (besides that vicious, intent to injure cross-check he received from Begin at the end of last night’s game) that he won’t be in the lineup? After the cross-check I wouldn’t doubt he has whiplash, but I haven’t read that he is out.

Lines should be:
Sullivan – O’Reilly – Dumont
Erat – Legwand – Ward
Scatchard – Wilson – Hornqvist
Jones (Belak) – Goc – Smithson

Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

by SLake on Oct 22, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I Really Dislike...

…the Sullivan, O’Reilly and Dumont line. They started well last night, but didn’t hold up to the rigors of an entire game and often were kept in the Nashville end. Too many playmakers as well, along with little net presence.

Missed your normal level of game day posts yesterday SLake. Hope to read more from you tonight.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

For getting almost 20:00 of ice time I felt like that line was pretty invisible last night, though they apparently had 9 sog combined. Aside from O’Reilly hitting the crossbar it didn’t seem to me like they were that much of an offensive threat.

I thought the PP looked pretty good on the first two tries (though abysmal on the 3rd) so hopefully they can break that streak soon enough.

by Blarg-o on Oct 22, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In fairness...

They had an extremely strong first period and led all forwards in EV ice time, rightfully so.

Once the game wore on, however, their lack of strength and Sully’s inability to successfully bring the puck up through the neutral zone resulted in way too much time in the Nashville end. As defensive forward lines, that isn’t a great threesome.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

Yeah, I was busy last night and while I was able to watch the game, I didn’t have internet access again until this morning.

I too dislike the Sullivan – O’Reilly – Dumont line due to their lack of grit and tendency to get too fancy when the situation requires that they bear down and will things to happen. While Erat has an issue with hogging the puck, I really don’t think I’ve ever seen as many behind the back passes in a single hockey game than I did last night from this line!

Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

by SLake on Oct 22, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have we seen Sullivan-Legwand-Erat yet?

I’m not sure if we’ve seen that combo yet this season, but it might help. Right now it seems like Sully gets up ahead of his linemates and easily handled by the opposing defense.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 22, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like that line from a counterattack and forechecking standpoint.

Watch out, though, if they get stuck in the Nashville end.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

My mistake

I forgot to update the lines to take Belak out and put Scatchard in, I’ll fix that.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 22, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great preview

Sens lines have changed slightly, though: Regin is in as third line centre, bumping Shannon to fourth line wing. Shean Donovan will sit.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Oct 22, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, I'll update the post!

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 22, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Dirk

I appreciate the plug this morning.

Thanks.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No problem, it was a good piece.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 22, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dirk, SLake...

I’ll ask this question of you as I asked Mark over at HockeyIndependent:

Do either of you have any feeling regarding how long Barry Trotz has to right the ship?

I have no inside information, but it’s hard to fathom he is the coach for the 11/5 game in Anaheim if he doesn’t earn at least five and maybe six points over the next five games.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Additionally,

Dirk your great link to Laviolette and Fenton’s upcoming coaching connection makes me feel that even more strongly.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really depends on the players...

I really think it depends on the players. As long as they continue to work hard and show signs of progress towards righting the ship, I think that Trotz is relatively safe. However, if the players show any sign of discontent en mass then I think it’ll definitely put Trotz squarely in the hot seat.

Thus far I have not seen any sign of discontent amongst the players. They are working hard and as a matter of fact demonstrated last night exactly what was worked on during practice this week. The Smithson goal and a rush by the top line minutes later were executed exactly as it has been diagrammed on the white board and run in drill after drill. The team really focused on building speed through the neutral zone, getting pucks and bodies to the net off the rush, and crashing the net after every shot.

They had some success at it yesterday, but have got to continue to become more consistent in order to win at this level…

Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

by SLake on Oct 22, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think he’s lost his players either. However, you would think that wins and losses have to play a factor at some point.

There’s talent on this team, maybe not Chicago or Detroit-level talent, but there’s talent. Right now, Trotz is not getting anywhere near the potential results that this team should accomplish.

Who has ever heard of a power play under 5% for any length of time? That’s unbelievable.

by David Singleton on Oct 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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