Individual projections for the Nashville Predators

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 5, 2009 5:20 PM EDT in Fantasy Hockey Comment 2 comments

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Is this the year that David Legwand takes a step forward as an offensive force for Nashville?

This might be a hair late given the fact that the Nashville Predators have already played Game One of the NHL season, but I wanted to get individual player projections cast in ~~stone~~ pixels before we got too far down the road.

Here's how my projections for last season went, and looking back I'm pretty satisfied with the results.

So check after the jump for how I think the individual offensive numbers will shake out, and tell me where I'm right or wrong in the comments...

Name	GP	G	A	Pts	Comment
Jason Arnott	70	35	30	65	Might benefit the most from Sully's presence.
Wade Belak	50	1	2	3	If he scores, it'll be a heck of a celebration.
Francis Bouillon	70	2	10	12	By the end of the year, he'll make people forget Greg Zanon.
J.P. Dumont	80	20	55	75	Has two genuine goal-scorers on his line, and lots of PP time.
Martin Erat	75	18	40	58	A career-high in points, but not enough to get excited about.
Marcel Goc	70	4	10	14	Think of him as the new Radek Bonk, but costing half as much.
Ben Guite	60	2	6	8	Think of him as the new Scott Nichol, but costing half as much.
Dan Hamhuis	80	5	20	25	Doesn't get the attention that Weber & Suter do, but he's gold.
Patric Hornqvist	60	12	20	32	2nd strong pre-season in a row, but in a battle for playing time.
Ryan Jones	65	10	15	25	Off to a slow start coming out of training camp, must earn opportunity.
Kevin Klein	80	4	12	16	Should prosper as a Top 4 defenseman after years of preparation.
Teemu Laakso	30	1	3	4	Will be eased into NHL action.
David Legwand	75	22	34	56	A healthy rebound from last season, but not quite career highs.
Mike Santorelli	70	16	20	36	Speed and chemistry with Legwand & Erat give cause for hope.
Jerred Smithson	82	1	5	6	Defensive specialist isn't relied upon for scoring.
Steve Sullivan	70	30	40	70	Offensive dynamo is the key to improved team play.
Alexander Sulzer	55	1	6	7	Must work his way back into the lineup, but skill set is valuable.
Ryan Suter	82	12	40	52	Continuing to mature as a top-level defenseman.
Jordin Tootoo	65	6	6	12	Will this be enough to earn #22 a new contract with Nashville?
Joel Ward	70	8	15	23	Expected to play major role on 3rd line and special teams.
Shea Weber	82	17	35	52	Must establish consistent performance at last year's elite level.
Colin Wilson	50	8	20	28	Can't expect everyday NHL dominance yet, but coming soon.
	GS	W	Sv %	SO	Comment
Dan Ellis	24	10	0.908	3	He will get his chance to shine, likely earning a job somewhere else next year.
Pekka Rinne	58	35	0.915	8	Will be pressed by Ellis, but appears ready for the challenge.

There are a few overall trends that guided these projections:

Top line dominance

The 2009-10 Nashville Predators should be led by production concentrated in the five-man unit of Sullivan-Arnott-Dumont up front, and Suter-Weber on the blueline. The return of Steve Sullivan to this group provides a major boost.

Young guns jockeying for position

Between Mike Santorelli, Ryan Jones and Patric Hornqvist, the Preds have three wingers who could show up anywhere from the 2nd line down to the 4th, or even watch in the press box, depending on how they're going at any given time. Barry Trotz isn't shy about juggling the lineup, and none of these three have earned a permanent job.

Rinne reigns

Although Dan Ellis earned the start in Game #1 due to his stellar pre-season work, I still expect Rinne to assume command as the regular starter. Both should be motivated to strong seasons, as they face free agency next summer.

A step towards mediocrity

As a team, this projection has Nashville potting 235 goals, a significant step up from last season's 207, but nothing too large. After all, 235 goals would have only been 17th-best in the NHL last year.

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Comments

belak score a goal? you are an optimist. since i have the benefit of hindsight sat night i hope that hit doesnt do to dumont what the burrows hit seem to do last year. he should score more this year if sully stays healthy. erat 18? i hope so. the bad thing is he should have 25-30 if he would ever turn TOWARD the net. hornqvist received some praise for his work on the top line saturday night from many writers/bloggers/commenters. i guess im the only one that thought he was as lost as last years easter egg. ryan jones was lost saturday, but i still think he has what it takes to surpass your expectation. he was one of the few that would go to the front of the net last season. granted that was in limited chances. lastly tootoo. he needs much bigger numbers than you surmise. closer to last years prediction( not reality). if he is single digit goals and assists again this year poile will have a tough decision to make. ive had this conversation before and again seemed to be the lone poster w/ the position of letting him go. on our shoestring budget we cant pay a mil for an agitator that contributes no offense and cant play on the PK when we could get one for half that.hopefully it wont come to that.

by predswilrule on Oct 5, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great call on the predictions

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"DO NOT get stuck behind Kyle Wellwood in the buffet line. This isn't really etiquette, but it will prevent you from starving to death"- Down Goes Brown on Etiquette for Jason Spezza's wedding

by Space Weed on Oct 5, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs