The Predators' win in Dallas: inside the numbers

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 6, 2009 5:20 PM EDT in Statistical Analysis

One thing I plan on toying with this season is providing a statistical summary of each Predators game, which allows for comparative analysis of individual players. This goes above and beyond the traditional box score, to reflect both the individual shots that a player takes, along with team results to try and bring defensive considerations into play.

Follow after the jump to take a look at an early prototype, and offer up your suggestions in the comments...

The following reflects even strength play only, from the season opener Saturday night in Dallas:

Even Strength		Individual Totals							On-Ice Totals
Player	Pos	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	Hits	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Tot Diff
David Legwand	C	16:44	0	0	1	1	0	0	8	11	-3	16	18	-2
Michael Santorelli	C	15:29	0	0	3	1	1	0	9	12	-3	18	18	0
Jason Arnott (C)	C	15:09	1	1	7	0	0	2	7	9	-2	11	23	-12
Marcel Goc	C	11:57	0	0	1	0	2	1	2	4	-2	8	11	-3
Steve Sullivan (A)	L	16:40	1	0	1	0	1	0	7	8	-1	11	24	-13
Ryan Jones	L	7:09	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	-3	3	7	-4
Martin Erat	R	16:48	0	0	4	3	0	1	9	11	-2	20	15	5
Patric Hornqvist	R	12:48	0	1	1	0	0	1	3	8	-5	6	19	-13
Jerred Smithson	R	11:26	0	0	0	1	0	5	1	4	-3	3	11	-8
Ben Guite	R	10:22	0	0	0	0	0	5	1	3	-2	2	10	-8
J.P. Dumont	R	5:08	0	1	1	0	0	2	3	3	0	5	9	-4
Wade Belak	R	5:06	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	6	-6
Shea Weber (A)	D	20:58	0	0	2	2	1	4	11	10	1	19	21	-2
Dan Hamhuis	D	20:52	0	0	2	1	1	2	6	14	-8	13	25	-12
Ryan Suter	D	20:23	0	0	2	1	0	2	13	8	5	22	20	2
Francis Bouillon	D	17:23	0	0	1	1	0	7	3	11	-8	7	29	-22
Kevin Klein	D	12:33	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	7	-3	8	14	-6
Teemu Laakso	D	6:02	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	-4	4	7	-3

The "On-Ice Totals" represent team totals while a given individual is on the ice. For instance, during Teemu Laakso's 6:02 of even strength play, the Preds had 0 shots on goal while the Stars had 4, for a differential of -4. When you consider Total Shots (which brings shots that were blocked or missed the net), the Preds fired 4 and the Stars 7, for a Total Shots Differential (or Corsi) value of -3.

Now, a typical analysis might point out that Martin Erat and Ryan Suter were the only Preds with positive Total Shots Differentials, indicating that the team as a whole was massively outshot as Nashville struggled to hold on while Dallas pressed, particularly in the 3rd period.

So my question to you, dear reader, is what features would make the most sense to add to this (without taking up additional space - we do want it to fit)? I could use color coding to make particularly positive or negative values stand out, or could normalize the results based on ice time.

Are there different columns you'd like to see? Some on here that should be removed? The options are wide open here, and I'm looking for input.

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Comments

PK time allowance

The shots on goal differential is interesting but is there a way to “normalize” it for PK time. Anyone doing PK duty is of course going to face more shots then they reasonably would at even strength. The base stat makes it appear that Hamhuis and Bouillion were getting lit up when in fact they both took the majority of PK minutes played by defensemen. The inverse of that is of course that Erat never plays PK but gets lots of ice-time on the PP. Not a complaint at all as I find that overall it gives you some insight into the quality of ice time for each player. The one stat I’d like added is faceoff wins.
Great work on this.

by ky_titans on Oct 6, 2009 9:50 PM EDT reply actions

I Agree

Looking at the chart, I was surprised by Bouillion’s numbers because I thought he played a pretty strong game. After I read your comment they made sense. So I agree, PK and PP time would be a nice addition. Nice work, Dirk.

"Get to the Choppa!"

by PredHead on Oct 6, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

PP and PK work would be presented in a separate table, the one above is meant for EV play only.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 6, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Curses!

You beat me to it Dirk! I was considering doing something like that.

Good work!

My Blog @ http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/?author=59

by David Singleton on Oct 6, 2009 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

There’s nothing that says you can’t try to do your own thing, have at it.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 7, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Nicely Done

Well done Dirk and an interesting take on the game. I would echo PredHead’s surprise at Bouillion’s stats as I was favorably impressed with his performance while watching the game. I think to be more meaningful you would need to divide by TOI. Color coding is good idea. Thanks for your extra work!

by howdy2u on Oct 7, 2009 9:02 AM EDT reply actions

I think what I might do is leave the raw totals in the table, but only use color highlights for extreme values that take TOI into account. So, for example, Ryan Jones and Jerred Smithson were both on the ice for 1 SOG For, but Smithson had almost twice as much even-strength ice time.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 7, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Missed Shots as a measure of defensive effectiveness?

I guess looking at the entire game missed shots give an indication of puck control, but does it say anything about the individual players on the ice? By definition they are harmless, but could they not also represent good defensive pressure being put on the shooting player? Is there a better indicator of the balance of the game that can be gleamed by looking at the standard stats? This is certainly more informative than the +/-. Just wondering.

by howdy2u on Oct 7, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember that the SOG For and SOG Ag columns ignore Missed Shots (and Blocked Shots as well), so if you just want to look at that, you certainly can.

For instance, 14 of the 25 Total Shots that Dan Hamhuis faced from the Stars got through to the net, while for Francis Bouillon, only 11 of 29 got through. Does that tell us something about how they played, perhaps?

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 7, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions