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Nashville Predators attendance - how big is the issue?

On 104.5's afternoon sports radio show, George Plaster was ruminating on the Nashville Predators off-ice issues, and bemoaning the fact that the team hasn't hired a local person to run their sales effort. Much was made about last night's crowd of 10,581 being one of the worst in a long, long time (since December 1, 2005, to be exact).

Here are the monthly numbers for this season and the last two, taking announced attendance figures from the Predators website...

Star-divide

Oct Nov
 Year Avg Games Avg Games
 2007 13,983 6 14,706 5
 2008 13,682 5 14,009 4
 2009 13,399 6 13,556 8

So what do you think, folks? Is the economy to blame? A low-scoring, grind-it-out team? Too many games packed closely together in November? The shutdown of Saturn in nearby Spring Hill?

One factor that we don't have a good up-to-date read on yet is the difference between announced attendance and paid attendance. "Announced attendance" means all tickets distributed, which includes those given away by the team for free. In the NHL, that figure can run from an average of 200 per game up to more than 2,000 for some franchises that are desperate to fill the building. From the 2007-8 season to 2008-9, Nashville's giveaways dropped by roughly 800 tickets per game, as the team sought to maximize paid attendance and hit key targets there.

So the big question is, how are giveaways trending this year? Paid attendance figures come out only sporadically.

UPDATE: As Paul McCann notes, an update from The Tennessean covering the first 6 home games saw a paid attendance increase of 75 per game, which suggests that at least during early in the 2008-9 season, 1,065 tickets were given away for each game, while in the first six of this year, that figure dropped to 503. The drop so far, then, appears entirely to be a reduction in giveaways. It will be interesting once we get November paid attendance figures to see how the trend proceeds.

 1st 6 home games*** Total Avg Paid Freebies
 2008 13,886 12,821 1,065
 2009 13,399 12,896 503

For the 2008-9 season in total, the difference between total attendance (15,010) and paid (14,190) implies an average giveaway of 820 per game. That's well down from 1,815 freebies a game during the 2005-6 season.

The stakes here are indeed large; if the Preds don't hit 14,000 average paid attendance again, they could miss out on 25% of their revenue sharing from the NHL, which is a significant chunk of change (anywhere from $2 - 4 million depending on how things shake out).

Obviously, the solution is for all of you readers to take the following message to heart:

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

***The figures for the 1st 6 home games of 2008 are different than the October numbers in the 1st table because the 6th game of that season was on November 1st. I just wanted to point that out to avoid confusion.

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reasons...

8th home game in 16 days. coming off rare back to back home games two nights earlier. on a monday night which is always a terrible draw unless Detroit is in town and it’s a national game and it’s a holiday week, non-household-name canadian team in town, titans game of the year 24 hours before. weekday games before January are always down in attendance.

this team will never draw well during the week before January until we become a perennial winner and even then we probably won’t.

by HartnellsMop on Dec 1, 2009 5:47 PM EST reply actions  

I believe this is the most early home games that we have ever had in Oct/Nov. There is nothing I like more than going to the games but the current pace of 12 home games in 32 days is really pushing it so I can imagine that a casual fan would really be put off by all the games. On any given night, I would speculate that half the fans are casual fans that will not go to more than a few games a month. You spread those folks out over more games and it is obvious that attendance will be down.

The economy is not good and the schedule has not been our friend. We can only hope that the team continues with strong play through the holidays so fans will still turn out after the first of the year when attendance usually picks up.

by Preds On The Glass on Dec 1, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions  

The Saturday game factor

IF you forget the months and just look at the first 14 home games from last season compared to the 14 games so far this season, our numbers are still below last year. However, you have to consider that last year 8 of our first 14 home games were on a Saturday night, compared to only 5 this year.

SO, the small upside to all of this is that we’re still fairly close to last years numbers at this point AND we still have 10 Saturday night games on the schedule (compared to only 6 remaining at this point last year)

HOWEVER, I don’t want to sound too optimistic. It’s up to us to do everything we can to get more butts in the seats. I’m taking a page from Dirk’s book and asking for additional tickets as Christmas presents.

Poor economy be damned, the Nashville Predators have a Stanley Cup to win!

"Get to the Choppa!"

by PredHead on Dec 1, 2009 6:36 PM EST reply actions  

Might be down a touch...

Would echo what’s said above. This simply isn’t a story until mid-February… if numbers are dramatically down at that point, then it’s news… wonder if there’s some sort of tiered pricing platform they could do for games before Jan. 1 or if that would even make a dent? Lower bowl = $50 Oct-Dec, $75 (or whatever) Jan-April. Similar to seasonal pricing for resorts.

by atty123 on Dec 1, 2009 6:42 PM EST reply actions  

That's an interesting idea

Some teams have experimented with that sort of dynamic pricing model.

By the way, welcome to OtF!

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 1, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

George Plaster has....

always been hard to listen to sometimes. He just SOOOOOO opinionated. It’s to the point where he believes that just because he’s lived most or all of his life in Nashville he therefore knows what matters to every one in the city. I’m sure the fact that he helped organize the rally back in ’07 adds a little helium to his ballooning ego as well.

As a Nashville native, I love George. I’m thankful for what he’s done. But when he gets on his pulpit I just tune him out.

by shlonny on Dec 1, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions  

Priceless

Love the AC plug at the end. Well done.

by stackiii on Dec 2, 2009 12:01 AM EST reply actions  

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