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Predators Game Day Preview: Nashville @ Edmonton

The red-hot Nashville Predators start a 3-game swing through western Canada tonight in Edmonton, against an Oilers squad that lost Tuesday to Los Angeles, ending a 5-game winning streak.

Can the Preds finish off an excellent December with some wins on the road? Let's check out the matchup...

Star-divide

Meet the Enemy

Derek Zona from The Copper & Blue was good enough to answer a few questions about the Oilers:

1) With Hemsky out of the lineup, who should Preds fans watch out for this evening up front? Penner's having a big year, but who else is playing well offensively?

Whoever is playing with Penner.  He's carrying the forward corps in all facets right now and he is the team's best penalty killer.  Brule's scoring numbers have taken a great leap forward, but the underlying numbers don't look good at all and when he's away from Penner all of his numbers fall apart.  Two guys to watch are Robert Nilsson and Ryan Stone.  Nilsson has been playing extremely well since his return from injury - he's been battling in the corners and his magical passing skills have been on display.  He also scored a beauty goal against the Red Wings.

Stone's game is simple - get it in deep and hit 'em hard.  He's not a great talent, but when he's in the lineup, the team has a different look.  He's not a headhunting hitter - he just finishes every check and has had a few defensemen looking over their shoulders.

2) What's the scoop with Khabibulin? Some were upset about his long-term, high-dollar deal when it was signed, and now to see him out with back trouble, what's the plan in goal?

Got me.  I'm one of those that was upset with his age 35 SPC, especially for an injury-prone guy, and now we can see why.  A herniated disc is not something that an older player just bounces back from and Khabibulin isn't known for his quick recovery times.  I think right now they're stuck with Jeff Deslauriers in goal and Devan Dubnyk as the backup.  Deslauriers has done yeoman's work and played much better than I could have imagined.  It's a shame Dubnyk is the backup though - he needs to be in the AHL getting more games under his belt. 

The situation is going to stay this way until Khabibulin is back or goes on LTIR and the Oilers get to exceed the cap by his contract amount.  I would imagine that if they are still hanging around the eighth spot, they will make a trade for a veteran goalie for the stretch.

3) How are the Oilers playing differently under Pat Quinn than they did under Craig MacTavish?

Tactically, Quinn and Renney don't believe in matching lines or defensive pairings.  Scott Reynolds has tracked the defensive changes for a few games and Renney simply goes 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3 for the entire game.   We've known since the summer that Quinn rolls lines in a 1-2-3-4-1-2-3-1-2-3-4 manner and he's been true to form.  You can check our game threads to watch us going nuts when the third line and the third pairing end up on the ice in the last two minutes.  Or when the 4th line starts in their own end in the last ten minutes. 

It's the beauty of being an Oiler fan.

Meet the Good Guys

With seven different goal scorers Tuesday night along with Sully's hat trick on Monday, Nashville's offense is enjoying a productive stretch. Can they maintain the pace against an Edmonton team which gives up 3 goals per game?

The lines carrying over from Tuesday are shown below. What remains to be seen is whether Wade Belak will dress, and if Cody Franson plays after getting recalled yesterday:

Forwards
Sullivan - Arnott - Erat
Ward - Legwand - Smithson
Hornqvist - Goc - Dumont
Jones - Spaling - Belak
Defense
Suter - Weber
Hamhuis - Klein
Bouillon - Sulzer

Red Light District also looked at the Preds' incredible run over the last 17 games, and the task ahead to close out 2009.

Even Strength Play

5-on-5 data from Behind the Net
 TEAM GP GF GA GF/60 SF/60 Sht % GA/60 SA/60 Save Pct. +/- per 60
 Nashville 34 63 60 2.3 29.5 7.9 2.2 29.1 .924 0.1
 Edmonton 33 71 69 2.8 27.9 9.8 2.7 32.4 .918 0.1

At long last, the Preds have popped over the break-even point in 5-on-5 action, thanks to the outburst of the last two games. Nashville has also risen to middle-of-the-pack status in shooting percentage, a reflection of multiple things, but certainly in part a sign that the boys are getting more chances from in close rather than firing from the perimeter. I hope to have more detailed analysis on that front soon.

Advantage: none

Edmonton PP vs. Nashville PK

Between the injury-related absences of Sheldon Souray (who has since returned) and Ales Hemsky (out for a long time), it's somewhat remarkable that the Oilers have maintained a middling power play; meanwhile, Nashville's penalty killers have sunk down to 29th (77.2%) in recent days, an uncharacteristic performance by Predators standards (helpful tip: let's see more Bouillon on the PK).

Advantage: Edmonton

Nashville PP vs. Edmonton PK

This side of the special teams battle isn't very special; the Preds' power play is back to 27th (16.3%), while the Oilers PK is 25th (78.6%). Neither team takes many penalties, so this isn't likely to play a huge factor.

Advantage: none

Goaltending

With #1 goalie Nikolai Khabibulin out with a bad back, we're likely to see Jeff Drouins-Deslauriers tonight for the Oilers. He won that 6-1 game back on October 12, and has fared well as the backup, but how long he can keep up the #1 role is an open question:


Jeff Deslauriers

#38 / Goalie / Edmonton Oilers

6-4

200

May 15, 1984

GP MIN W L GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Jeff Deslauriers 15 865 8 5 38 2.64 443 405 .914 1


Pekka Rinne wasn't exactly outstanding against the Lightning Tuesday night, but he gets the nod again tonight for Nashville:


Pekka Rinne

#35 / Goalie / Nashville Predators

6-5

206

Nov 03, 1982

GP MIN W L EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Pekka Rinne 24 1347 14 6 60 2.67 649 589 .908 2

Advantage: none

Summary

The Oilers strike me as a team, much like Vancouver, that's not as bad as their 15-14-4 record indicates. Losing both Hemsky and Khabibulin is definitely a tough break, but there is a combination of talent and grit here that makes this a dangerous team.

That, and the fact that Pat Quinn's getting hot under the collar these days tells me that Edmonton could come out flying tonight. The Preds will need to play a typical road game; weather the early storm and don't get cute around the bluelines. Dig hard for the net, and try to stay out of the penalty box as much as possible.

It's an 8:30 Nashville start tonight on Fox Sports Tennessee - no HD, unfortunately, and nor will there be any on this entire road trip. Do they not have HD up there in Western Canada?

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments |

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Good preview but I’m searching for an explanation as to why we don’t get the advantage under goaltending? Both Rinne and Ellis, whoever starts, are better than Deslauriers, by a fair piece, statistically and intangibly, IMO.

Anyway, it’d be nice to know your thinking behind that one.

Edmonton’s lines likely look like this:

Penner – Gagner – Brule
Jacques – Horcoff – O’Sullivan
Moreau – Potulny – Cogliano
Nilsson – Stortini – Stone

Gilbert – Souray
Smid – Visnovsky
Grebeshkov – Staios

by Chris Burton on Dec 17, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

Penner – Gagner – Brule
Jacques – Horcoff – O’Sullivan
Moreau – Potulny – Cogliano
Nilsson – Stortini – Stone

I don’t think so. O’Sullivan is in the dog house right now and played on the 4th line last game. Nilsson moved up to play with Horcoff and did well

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Dec 17, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, my bad, I pulled them off the Oil-LAK thread.

Thanks Dirk. My problem is I’m thinking more of what I see on my TV screen as opposed to the actual stats. I mean, it just FEELS like Pekka is way better than Deslauriers :P.

by Chris Burton on Dec 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

The difference here is potential and durability. Pekka should be able to handle the 50-60 game workload of being a #1, as he’s done in Milwaukee more than once. He also has more ability to put the team on his back, as we saw down the stretch last season.

I don’t think he’s really played all that well over the last few weeks, with occasional lapses that make the difference between decent and outstanding goaltending.

If you gave me a choice as to which guy I’d want on my team, I’d take Rinne hands-down. But going into tonight’s game, I just don’t see a big advantage for Nashville in this one. Take with appropriate-sized grain of salt, considering that I don’t have the same familiarity with how Deslauriers’ been playing lately.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 17, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

While they’ve each had some solid stretches, both Rinne and Ellis have been good, but not great this season. And if you look at the stats (most importantly save percentage) I don’t see any advantage for Nashville tonight.

Now, if he has to carry the #1 load for several weeks, I doubt that Deslauriers will maintain his performance to date, but so far he’s been a bit of a bright spot for Edmonton.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 17, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

If we're talking statistically

Defaulting to what Deslauriers has done in 15 games, not much of a sample size, when Rinne has better stats in 79 career games, doesn’t make much sense. Yes, you weight recent performance, but 15 games will never obscure years of statistical superiority in both the AHL and the NHL. If you want to argue hot-hand, whatever, but there’s not statistical argument for Deslauriers> Rinne.

by Sam Page on Dec 17, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

And just to be clear, I’m not saying Deslauriers > Rinne; just that going into tonight’s game, I don’t see a significant edge either way. On the whole, I like Rinne a lot more, but he’s not been at the top of his game lately, while Deslauriers has been doing well for Edmonton.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 17, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow! I didn’t realize that anyone other than Oilers fans busted out the advanced stats from behind the net. For the Oilers, we love to pour over advanced stats to figure out why we’re losing so that we know who to point the finger at.

I didn’t think teams that are doing in the well were as likely to look at them.

GOILERS!

by Hockey Noob on Dec 17, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

goilers?

WINASHVILLE!

"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis

Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.

by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 17, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

You’ll find a few other sites particularly within the SB Nation loop that use the advanced stats, like Japers Rink for Washington and Die By the Blade for Buffalo.

Frankly, a couple years ago I did a lot more advanced stats work, but providing day-to-day coverage here has distracted me from that quite a bit. I hope to get back to it in the coming weeks if I can manage to stop letting other stuff suck away all my time.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 17, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

If you don't have Fox Sports

You can watch the game on Yahoo for free

by Lil cutie on Dec 17, 2009 7:14 PM EST reply actions  

Oilers message board saying Moreau is out with the flu. Also, don’t know about y’all, but I really like the Oilers 3rds, which they’re wearing tonight.

by Chris Burton on Dec 17, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions  

hopefully their 3rds are as unlucky as ours seem to be.

"Get to the Choppa!"

by PredHead on Dec 17, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

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