Your 2008-9 Nashville Predators, performance vs. forecast

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 14, 2009 11:48 AM EDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 0 comments

As we continue reflecting on the season gone by, I wanted to share an assessment of how individual members of the Nashville Predators fared against the projections I made at the start of the season. The table below contains actual numbers alongside my preseason picks, and where they exist, the player names link to the articles I wrote for each player over at Kukla's Korner.

Overall, I think I nailed most of the skaters pretty well, obviously Joel Ward and Steve Sullivan were complete surprises, and a few players like Patric Hornqvist disappointed. As to the goalies, I expected Dan Ellis to take a bit of a step back, but not as large a one as it turned out to be. Pekka Rinne, on the other hand, took advantage of the opportunity and earned the #1 role by midseason.

Today, I'm just including a comment on each Pred, but will come back around to do individual profiles after the playoffs complete. For now, I've got to get my Stanley Cup predictions ready, so if you'll excuse me, I have some steaming pig entrails to read...

The Skaters

		Actual				Forecast
Player	Games	G	A	Pts	Shots	G	A	Pts	Shots	Comment
J.P. Dumont	82	16	49	65	176	32	48	80	220	Set career-high in assists, sometimes lacked assertiveness on offense.
Jason Arnott	65	33	24	57	196	29	40	69	240	Had best goal-scoring season ever, a rarity for a player of his age.
Shea Weber	81	23	30	53	251	15	24	39	225	Gigantic leap forward this year; surely has more All-Star games in his future.
Martin Erat	71	17	33	50	149	25	38	63	176	Would benefit from depth behind him.
Ryan Suter	82	7	38	45	143	9	27	36	155	Grew almost as much as Weber as a player.
Steve Sullivan	41	11	21	32	83					Should be a lock for the Masterton Trophy, but will he return?
David Legwand	73	20	22	42	175	19	38	57	172	On wish list: steady, gifted winger opposite Erat.
Joel Ward	79	17	18	35	133					He's like a $20 bill you pulled out of an old pair of jeans.
Dan Hamhuis	82	3	23	26	135	7	25	32	140	Needs more help on the 2nd pair.
Radek Bonk	66	9	16	25	102	12	25	37	110	Won faceoffs, but that's about it.
Ryan Jones	46	7	10	17	63	12	18	30	95	Must develop this summer, but has potential.
Vern Fiddler	78	11	6	17	114	8	20	28	80	Scored 11 goals for the 3rd straight season.
Jordin Tootoo	72	4	12	16	138	16	20	36	130	138 shots, 4 goals? 2.9% is brutal.
Jerred Smithson	82	4	9	13	74	3	5	8	35	Useful in limited, 4th-line and PK role.
Kevin Klein	63	4	8	12	41	3	10	13	60	Earned a regular shift, can he keep improving?
Ville Koistinen	38	3	8	11	42	7	29	36	120	Flopped as PP QB, likely leaving via free agency.
Greg Zanon	82	4	7	11	54					Shot blocker could earn ~$2 million on the market.
Scott Nichol	43	4	6	10	42	6	8	14	80	Had uncharacteristcally bad year on PK, even before injury.
Patric Hornqvist	28	2	5	7	54	18	15	33	140	What's Swedish for "bust"?
Antti Pihlstrom	53	2	5	7	88	2	4	6	25	And you thought nobody shot worse than Tootoo (2.3%).
Greg De Vries	71	1	4	5	38					2.78 GA/60 MIN on the 4-on-5 PK among NHL's very best.
Jed Ortmeyer	2	0	0	0	4	4	6	10	60	Spent vast majority of the season in Milwaukee.

The Goalies

		Actual				Forecast
Player	Games	W	L	GAA	Save Pct.	W	L	GAA	Save Pct.	Comment
Dan Ellis	35	11	18	2.93	.900	30	27	2.45	.914	Had a season like Chris Mason the year before, but should stay a Pred.
Pekka Rinne	52	29	16	2.38	.917	13	12	2.70	.905	Hugely impressive, but wore down at the end.