Rangers vs. Capitals playoff preview

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 14, 2009 4:36 PM EDT

The Blogs

The first of my playoff previews focuses one of many high-profile matches in the opening round, with the #2 seed Washington Capitals hosting the #7 New York Rangers.

The Storylines

Oh, look! It's Sean Avery! What wacky pranks will he come up with next? The question that interests me here is whether Washington tolerates Avery's calculated taunts, or if they choose to swat this pest early.

On the Washington side, Alex Ovechkin has captured trophies and filled up countless highlight reels with his regular season exploits, but true NHL legends are made in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. How will he fare in his second playoff run?

The Numbers

	New York		Washington
Record	43-30-9	12th	50-24-8	5th
Pts %	.579	12th	.659	4th
Goals For/Game	2.44	27th	3.27	3rd
Goals Against/Game	2.58	6th	2.93	19th
5-on-5 GF/GA	0.90	23rd	1.10	8th
PP%	13.9	28th	25.2	2nd
PK%	87.8	1st	80.6	17th
Shots/Game	32.4	7th	33.5	2nd
Shots Against/Game	29.7	15th	29.5	12th
FO %	50.8	15th	51.7	7th

This deck is stacked pretty heavily in Washington's favor. Take, for instance, those power play numbers. While it looks like #2 vs. #28 is already a big advantage for Washington, that 13.9% PP for the Rangers doesn't even count the 13 shorthanded goals they gave up, a league high. Yes, the Caps gave up 10 shorties too, but at least they scored twice as often on the PP to make up for that.

Goaltending

New York

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Henrik Lundqvist	70	4153	38	25	7	3	168	2.43	2007	1839	.916	3

Washington

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Jose Theodore	57	3287	32	17	5	4	157	2.87	1572	1415	.900	2

Lundqvist is a star performer, but he'll have to absolutely steal games for the Rangers to have a chance.

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

New York	Penalties Drawn			Washington	Penalties Drawn
Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-	Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-
Brandon Dubinsky	45	38	+7	Alex Ovechkin	42	35	+7
Sean Avery	41	33	+8	Brooks Laich	33	14	+19
Scott Gomez	34	30	+4	Alex Semin	30	32	-2
Ryan Callahan	34	18	+16	Donald Brashear	26	33	-7
Colton Orr	32	43	-11	Mike Green	25	34	-9
Aaron Voros	31	36	-5	Matt Bradley	23	16	+7
	Penalties Taken				Penalties Taken
Colton Orr	32	43	-11	Alex Ovechkin	42	35	+7
Brandon Dubinsky	45	38	+7	Mike Green	25	34	-9
Aaron Voros	31	36	-5	Milan Jurcina	7	34	-27
Sean Avery	41	33	+8	Donald Brashear	26	33	-7
Paul Mara	20	33	-13	Alex Semin	30	32	-2
Scott Gomez	34	30	+4	Shaone Morrison	18	31	-13

As mentioned above, a key player here is Avery; if he can goad the Caps into some bad penalties, it provides a chance for the Rangers to get an early lead and then hang on.

The Prediction

I have to take the Washington Capitals in a cake walk here. As much as I like John Tortorella as a coach, I just don't think he has the horses to keep up with the Caps in this one.