Blues vs. Canucks playoff preview

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 14, 2009 11:47 PM EDT

The Blogs

St. Louis Game Time vs. Nucks Misconduct

The St. Louis Blues defied low expectations and devastating injuries to not just make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, but climb all the way up to the #6 seed and a date with the Northwest champion Vancouver Canucks.

The Storyline

Vancouver is loaded with expectations, the front office for having acquired Mats Sundin, and the Sedin twins for playing out their contract, with the specter of previous disappointing playoff performances hanging over their impending free agency. St. Louis has boldly gone where nobody thought they could go, so might they play "fast and loose", and get the jump on the Canucks?

The Numbers

	St. Louis		Vancouver
Record	41-31-10	15th	45-27-10	7th
Pts %	.561	15th	.610	7th
Goals For/Game	2.77	19th	2.96	11th
Goals Against/Game	2.77	12th	2.60	7th
5-on-5 GF/GA	0.94	19th	1.21	3rd
PP%	20.5	8th	18.8	16th
PK%	83.8	3rd	81.4	16th
Shots/Game	27.7	28th	28.5	24th
Shots Against/Game	28.5	6th	29.2	10th
FO %	49.1	18th	51.9	5th

That gap in 5-on-5 GF/GA is the largest among the Western Conference matchups, and is probably the single most significant stat in this table (since the bulk of any game is played 5-on-5).

Goaltending

St. Louis

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Chris Mason	57	3215	27	21	7	7	129	2.41	1544	1415	.916	6

Vancouver

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Roberto Luongo	54	3181	33	13	7	5	124	2.34	1542	1418	.920	9

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

St. Louis	Penalties Drawn			Vancouver	Penalties Drawn
Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-	Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-
David Perron	46	24	+22	Alex Burrows	58	48	+10
David Backes	41	54	-13	Ryan Kesler	37	23	+14
B.J. Crombeen	32	38	-6	Kevin Bieksa	34	35	-1
Cam Janssen	31	32	-1	Daniel Sedin	32	18	+14
Keith Tkachuk	27	29	-2	Henrik Sedin	31	23	+8
Dan Hinote	25	19	+6	Darcy Hordichuk	28	30	-2
	Penalties Taken				Penalties Taken
David Backes	41	54	-13	Shane O'Brien	27	57	-30
B.J. Crombeen	32	38	-6	Alex Burrows	58	48	+10
Barret Jackman	23	35	-12	Mattias Ohlund	13	46	-33
Brad Winchester	25	34	-9	Kevin Bieksa	34	35	-1
Cam Janssen	31	32	-1	Darcy Hordichuk	28	30	-2
Keith Tkachuk	27	29	-2	Willie Mitchell	22	27	-5

For Vancouver, the Dastardly Duo of Ohlund and O'Brien ranked among the very worst in Penalty Plus/Minus, and a critical factor for the Canucks will be how referees call the game during the playoffs. If the zebras opt to "let the players decide the game", they might get away with fewer penalties than would otherwise be the case.

The Prediction

There are a couple tempting notions that could lead one to call for an upset here, but nothing strong enough to make the difference. I'll take the Vancouver Canucks.