NHL Announces Hart Trophy finalists
Today the NHL announced the finalists for the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP, with a trio of Russian stars vying for the prize, including last year's winner, Alex Ovechkin, along with Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk and Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin.
Earlier this season I tinkered with a statistical model designed to specifically answer the question of which player is "judged to be the most valuable to his team," which is exactly what the Hart Trophy is supposed to reward. Basically, it breaks down the total contribution in terms of both Goals For and Goals Against in 5-on-5, 5-on-4, and 4-on-5 action, and also brings in the effect of Penalty Plus/Minus, the ability of a given player to create power plays for his team.
The table below breaks this out in detail for the 15 players who came out at the top of my list, including a leader who wasn't included among the Hart Trophy finalists...
For each of the situations (5-on-5, 5-on-4, 4-on-5, shown below as EV, PP & PK to make the table a little less bulky), we have Time On Ice per game, along with the Rating stat from Behind the Net, which reflects the net impact on a teams Goals For-Against balance from a given player's presence on the ice, per 60 minutes of play (Goals For while on the ice, minus Goals For while on the bench, minus Goals Against while on the ice, plus Goals Against while on the bench).
For instance, if a team scores just as much as they give up while Joe Schmoe is on the bench, but when he's on the ice they outscore the opposition by a goal every 60 minutes, his Rating would be +1.00. It doesn't matter whether he scores that extra goal per hour of play, or his checking prevents that many goals against, so this Rating brings together offense and defense in one measure.
I take the Games Played, Time On Ice, and Rating to come up with an Impact stat for each situation (for instance, below, Mike Green's EV play resulted, over the course of the season, in a total of +25.50 to the GF-GA balance of the Caps this year). EV, PP, and PK Impact are summed up as Total Rating Impact, and then I bring in the aspect of Penalty Plus/Minus. By drawing penalties from the opposition, a given player creates advantageous situations for his team that are independent of the goals and assists that he actually scores.
Again, this measure (outside of the Penalty Plus/Minus part) specifically reflects performance compared to the rest of one's team, so it is ideally suited for an MVP debate.
| NAME | GP | EV TOI | EV Rat | EV Imp | PP TOI | PP Rat | PP Imp | PK TOI | PK Rat | PK Imp | Tot Rat Imp | PPM | PPM Imp | Tot Imp |
| Mike Green | 68 | 16.79 | 1.34 | 25.50 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 27.73 | 2.46 | 6.86 | 19.13 | 72.35 | -9 | -1.38 | 70.98 |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 81 | 13.51 | 2.13 | 38.85 | 3.16 | 3.35 | 14.29 | 1.51 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 53.69 | +20 | 3.06 | 56.75 |
| Alex Semin | 62 | 13.18 | 1.78 | 24.24 | 3.74 | 7.28 | 28.13 | 1.52 | 1.65 | 2.59 | 54.97 | -2 | -0.31 | 54.66 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 79 | 15.94 | 0.5 | 10.49 | 5.11 | 6.21 | 41.78 | 0.92 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 52.85 | +7 | 1.07 | 53.92 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 82 | 14.53 | 0.94 | 18.67 | 3.61 | 6.3 | 31.08 | 0.87 | 3.01 | 3.58 | 53.33 | -9 | -1.38 | 51.95 |
| Zach Parise | 82 | 13.97 | 1.32 | 25.20 | 3.49 | 3.37 | 16.07 | 0.36 | 12.34 | 6.07 | 47.35 | +20 | 3.06 | 50.41 |
| Mark Streit | 74 | 16.79 | 1.71 | 35.41 | 4.89 | 1.61 | 9.71 | 2.36 | 0.1 | 0.29 | 45.41 | -13 | -1.99 | 43.42 |
| Evgeni Malkin | 82 | 15.03 | 1.14 | 23.42 | 5.06 | 2.01 | 13.90 | 1.06 | 0.81 | 1.17 | 38.49 | +23 | 3.52 | 42.01 |
| Patrik Elias | 77 | 12.46 | 0.54 | 8.63 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 15.14 | 1.85 | 5.86 | 13.91 | 37.68 | +13 | 1.99 | 39.67 |
| Nicklas Lidstrom | 78 | 16.57 | 1.15 | 24.77 | 3.62 | 1.82 | 8.56 | 3.22 | 1.51 | 6.32 | 39.66 | -10 | -1.53 | 38.13 |
One thing that makes me pretty comfortable with this right off is that our three finalists are among the top eight in this table. But you'll also notice that Washington defenseman Mike Green is way out ahead of the pack here. His contribution came through in all situations, and for a defenseman playing lots of minutes, a -9 Penalty Plus/Minus isn't bad at all.
It wasn't like his accomplishments were solely offensive; despite a great deal of criticism that he isn't a "real defenseman", take a look at what Green did on the PK. Among players with 40+ games played, and at least 2 minutes per game of PK duty, his Goals Against per 60 minutes of play (2.51) was 3rd best in the NHL, according to Behind the Net. Combine that with his Goals For/60 Min of 1.79, and the Washington PK did just fine while Green was out there.
I know that in general defensemen don't get considered for the Hart unless they had a truly eye-popping season, but in my book, that's exactly what Green has done this year.
NOTE: Another point that sticks out in this list is the number of Washington Capitals players appearing. What this reflects is the concentration of performance in a relatively small number of players on that team. Basically, the gap between the top end of the Caps roster and the depth players is wider than on other teams.
But regardless of my analysis, your three nominees are...
He is the very model of a modern hockey superstar...
A favorite for the Selke and the Lady Byng, could he pull off an unlikely three-trophy sweep?
He didn't just lead the league in scoring, he's the one who put the goofy sunglasses and hat on Ovechkin during the All-Star weekend. That's gotta count for something, right?
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Very Interesting. Could use some tinkering(don’t look at me), but I like it. Well done sir.
by Bonzai on Apr 29, 2009 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Four Capitals in the top five? Perhaps they’re just a really top heavy team?
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by James Mirtle on Apr 29, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That’s exactly the note I just added to the piece… the core of the Caps delivers an outsized portion of the results compared to other teams. It’s worth repeating (over and over) that this analysis highlights individual performance relative to the rest of the team, it’s not a “10 best players in the NHL” list.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Apr 29, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One possible tinker:
For instance, if a team scores just as much as they give up while Joe Schmoe is on the bench, but when he’s on the ice they outscore the opposition by a goal every 60 minutes, his Rating would be +1.00. It doesn’t matter whether he scores that extra goal per hour of play, or his checking prevents that many goals against, so this Rating brings together offense and defense in one measure.
Do you think this still undervalues defense, though? I would think that a goal prevented is more valuable than a goal scored. The marginal value of additional goals decreases, while the marginal value of prevented goals increases.
That said, this is light-years beyond “goals, assists, +/-”. Kudos!
by matskralc on Apr 29, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Quite true
In today’s NHL, indeed a goal prevented is worth more than a goal scored, but the margin of difference between the two is pretty small in practical terms. What I could do (taking a note down for a summer “to do”) is work out the relative value of Goals Scored vs. Goals Prevented, and weight the components appropriately here.
I could also bring shootout performance into the results.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Apr 29, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome breakdown with results that would surprise many.
The only thing I want to mention is that 4 Capitals players showing up on this list does not only mean that the top talent on the Caps is way ahead of the rest of the team. It also means that the top talent on the Caps is really amazing and better than most NHL fans are aware of.
To have 4 players on this list from one team is incredible. While Semin has started to get at least some recognition for being a true superstar Nicky Backstrom is still extremely underrated. He’s so young and yet already one of the top 3 centers in the NHL. If you were to say that to most NHL fans they’d think you’re nuts.
by ranndino on Apr 30, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great work and analysis. Thanks for the read.
by zephyr on Apr 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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