It's time to hand out some awards...

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 6, 2009 3:14 PM EDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 9 comments

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Pekka Rinne has taken over the #1 job in the Nashville net with an outstanding rookie season. (AP Photo/Frederick Breedon)

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Even though the season's not quite over, speculation runs rampant at this time of year about the NHL's postseason awards. James over at From the Rink has asked each of us SB Nation hockey bloggers to designate winners for the major awards not just for the league at large, but for our own teams as well. So, without further ado, the On the Forecheck awards go to...

Firstly, for your Nashville Predators:

Hart Trophy: J.P. Dumont; a bit of a surprising choice to some, I'm sure, but he, Arnott & Weber were the only core players on the team with positive GF/GA results in 5-on-5 action. Toss in his team 2nd-best Penalty Plus/Minus rating of +9 (which is ultimately the difference-maker between he and Jason Arnott), and you have a player whose offensive production took a bit of a step back, but his overall contributions were still enormous.

Norris Trophy: Shea Weber: his impact on 5-on-5 play was the strongest on the team, and his goal-scoring obviously came back to the forefront after a lost 2007-8 campaign. Nashville fans are incredibly fortunate to see this young gun mature into the player we've all thought he can be; it seems like there are usually a dozen or so "next great young defensemen" who never seem to put it together like Weber did this year.

Vezina Trophy: Pekka Rinne, duh?

Calder Trophy: Pekka Rinne, double duh?

Selke Trophy: Joel Ward: It's still stunning to think how this guy just dropped out of the blue and established himself as a key player on this team. Whether in even strength or penalty killing situations, he uses his size and experience to good effect in keeping the play out of Nashville's end.

A lot of the weight behind these decisions came from the following table. It breaks down the game into 5-on-5, 5-on-4 (PP), and 4-on-5 (PK) situations, using the impact on Goals For/Against per 60 minutes (from Behind the Net), along with Games Played and Time On Ice to determine, balancing both offensive and defensive results, how a player has impacted the team GF/GA in each situation. Lastly, the Penalty Plus/Minus factor gets brought in, to represent how a player helps create favorable or unfavorable conditions for the team (for further details, check out my previous article using this type of analysis).

NAME	GP	5-on-5 TOI	5-on-5 Rat	5-on-5 Imp	PP TOI	PP Rat	PP Imp	PK TOI	PK Rat	PK Imp	Tot Rat Imp	PPM	PPM Imp	Tot Imp
J.P. Dumont	56	13.46	0.56	7.04	3.37	2.28	7.17	0.06	-8.8	-0.49	13.71	+9	1.38	15.09
Jason Arnott	50	13.68	0.58	6.61	4.02	2.28	7.64	0.17	3.69	0.52	14.77	-5	-0.77	14.01
Joel Ward	53	12.11	0.29	3.10	1.12	-1.6	-1.58	2.3	2.69	5.47	6.98	+9	1.38	8.36
Martin Erat	53	13.55	-0.02	-0.24	3.26	1.05	3.02	1.11	2.63	2.58	5.36	+1	0.15	5.52
Shea Weber	55	17.02	0.58	9.05	4.14	-0.87	-3.30	1.59	1.55	2.26	8.01	-19	-2.91	5.10
Steve Sullivan	15	13.85	0.75	2.60	3.31	3.22	2.66	0.3	3.96	0.30	5.56	-6	-0.92	4.64
Kevin Klein	37	11.63	0.86	6.17	0.47	-7.13	-2.07	0.45	3.29	0.91	5.01	-3	-0.46	4.56
Ryan Jones	31	10.16	0.42	2.20	1.57	-0.87	-0.71	0.02	4.73	0.05	1.55	+14	2.14	3.69
Ville Koistinen	28	11.23	0.31	1.62	2.73	0.3	0.38	0.09	5.37	0.23	2.23	-4	-0.61	1.62
Wade Belak	43	5.23	0.39	1.46	0.02	-3.5	-0.05	0	0	0.00	1.41	-2	-0.31	1.11
Radek Bonk	52	12.05	-0.41	-4.28	2.21	2.83	5.42	0.47	1.51	0.62	1.75	-6	-0.92	0.84
Alexander Sulzer	2	6.52	0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0.04	5.87	0.01	0.01	0	0.00	0.01
Jerred Smithson	56	10.82	-0.37	-3.74	0.07	-4.11	-0.27	2.7	1.49	3.75	-0.25	-10	-1.53	-1.78
Antti Pihlstrom	33	10.81	-0.45	-2.68	0.28	0.25	0.04	0.35	-0.11	-0.02	-2.66	+4	0.61	-2.05
Patric Hornqvist	19	10.1	-0.65	-2.08	0.99	-4.64	-1.45	0.02	5.19	0.03	-3.50	+3	0.46	-3.04
Mike Santorelli	6	10.47	-3.05	-3.19	1.65	-4.97	-0.82	0.04	1.38	0.01	-4.01	0	0.00	-4.01
David Legwand	56	13.97	0.23	3.00	2.69	-2.5	-6.28	1.96	-0.87	-1.59	-4.87	+1	0.15	-4.72
Greg Zanon	56	16.3	0.34	5.17	0.08	-4.11	-0.31	3.63	-2.71	-9.18	-4.32	-8	-1.22	-5.54
Ryan Suter	56	17.24	-0.44	-7.08	3.78	0.16	0.56	2.16	1.84	3.71	-2.81	-18	-2.75	-5.56
Scott Nichol	27	8.06	-0.15	-0.54	0.08	-3.97	-0.14	2.71	-3.93	-4.79	-5.48	-1	-0.15	-5.63
Greg de Vries	46	13.08	-0.88	-8.82	0.11	-3.76	-0.32	1.9	2.31	3.36	-5.78	-15	-2.30	-8.07
Jordin Tootoo	47	11.44	-0.93	-8.33	0.71	-2.02	-1.12	0.03	4.04	0.09	-9.36	+5	0.77	-8.60
Vern Fiddler	52	10.52	-1.02	-9.30	0.38	-4.19	-1.38	2.73	-2.75	-6.51	-17.19	+9	1.38	-15.81
Dan Hamhuis	56	16.89	-0.67	-10.56	1.42	1.15	1.52	3.51	-2.97	-9.73	-18.77	-2	-0.31	-19.07

For the league at large? I won't burden you with another table, so here's my winners:

Hart: Mike Green, Washington Capitals. What he's done this year is simply remarkable. His impact on GF/GA across all situations (using the analysis above) is at elite levels, including the top rating on the PK (+12.16), and 3rd-best on the PP (+22.97).

Norris: Mike Green, again.

Vezina: Tim Thomas, Boston Bruins. That .933 save percentage is just sick.

Calder: This is a hair splitter, but I'm going with Pekka Rinne over Steve Mason. Rinne has the better save percentage while facing a heavier workload, and is relied upon more heavily by his team. Both of these guys have had excellent seasons, however.

Selke: Patrik Elias, New Jersey Devils. Top-notch defensive numbers combined with 31 goals and a point-per-game pace? Yikes, what a year.

So what do you folks think? Am I nuts on these?

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Comments

Playoffs....

With the way that this season has gone, I would be thrilled just to get into the playoffs. Anything after that would just be a bonus. These final 3 games are going to be hard though. St. Louis gets to play Phoenix and Colorado in their final 3….

Christie kicks it high and short...Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25...He dishes it back to Wycheck...He throws it across the field to Dyson...

Crowd roaring after Suter’s goal tied it up… Preds win the faceoff and Arnott crosses the blueline, slapshot and a SCORE! Arnott blows it by Hasek and the Preds take the lead 4-3…

by Michaeltastic on Apr 6, 2009 5:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My Preds MVP is Sully.

The way he helped the team move from 14th to 8th after he made his comeback is incredible.

Welcome to Smashville, Tennessee.

by Aditya T (smashville) on Apr 6, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d bet that if Sully was ready to go right from the start of the season, you’d be right. Since he joined halfway through, and took about 15 games to get up to speed, his total positive contribution has been confined to this last quarter of the season.

He has been dynamite, though!

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 6, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you explain this "Total Imp" stat to me a little more?

I clicked on your link and I’m still a little confused as to the individual components. Without knowing too much about the stat, it seems to equally weight several very different factors.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Apr 6, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll try...

For each situation (5-on-5, 5-on-4, 4-on-5), the Rating shows the impact on Goals For/Against per 60 minutes of play when that player is on the ice. For instance, if, when Joe Schmoe plays, the team outscores the opposition 3 to 2 per 60 minutes, but while he’s on the bench, it’s 2 to 2, then that player has a +1.0 “rating”. His presence on the ice tips the GF/GA balance by +1.0 in the team’s favor.

I take that rating, and multiply it by Games Played and Time On Ice per game, to get a totally summed up impact on Goals For/Against for each of those situations. I run this for each situation (EV, PP, PK) and add them together, then also throw Penalty Plus/Minus into the mix. Besides the on-ice performance of a player in different situations, it’s also important to note how each skater helps create favorable or unfavorable conditions. For instance, J.P. Dumont created a net of 9 power plays for the Preds, while Jason Arnott left them shorthanded 5 times. That right there was worth a couple goals against, and tipped the scales in Dumont’s favor here.

It’s important to remember that this analysis compares individual performance against that of the team, and so in that sense, does help determine which guys are “most valuable” to their particular team.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 6, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK that's interesting

While it’s better than plus/minus, this statistic still seems to have the problem of not separating a player form the play of the other guys on his line and his goalie. In the context of the team though, it helps. When comparing players to the rest of the league, though, I would imagine the players on the best teams would look disproportionately better.

I also think it needs to be determined exactly how much a power play or penalty kill hurts a team, in order to factor in penalty plus/minus. I think this would also help refine SV%.

Obviously I say this with no alternative, and I’m glad you’re trying to use improvements on traditional stats. I’ve had some ideas for stats and if I get around to fleshing them out (maybe this summer) I’ll email you or submit a fanpost.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Apr 7, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. As far as separating an individual from his linemates, I could bring in the quality of teammates/quality of competition metrics from Behind the Net, that’s worth looking into. As for separating from the goalie, the idea there would be to use Shot Quality, and I don’t have the data structured appropriately (yet) to break that down by individual like this.

2. As for how much a power play or penalty kill helps/hurts a time, the rule of thumb is that such a situation is worth ~0.15 goals, based on the additional opportunity to score a goal & lessened opportunity to give one up.

I don’t make a claim that this stuff is perfect, just that it offers perhaps more info than other views, which typically focus only on offensive contribution measured in goals and assists.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Apr 8, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

our MVP is NOT Sully. Though he has been a huuuuuuuuuuge reason for the resurgence, Rinne and Weber have been contributing more. Sully is for sure one of the best leaders we have but as far as hockey performance, Weber and Rinne.

I’d disagree with your Hart choice, and probably your Norris choice as well Dirk. I am a hockey noob compared to you but it seems to me that Green’s numbers are inflated, and mainly because he is out there with Semin-Backstrom-Ovechkin. I don’t watch much Capital hockey but I have to think that all defensive and PK attention is on these three guys, especially Ovechkin who is running away with the Richard. If Green played on say, the Peverley line in Atlanta, Florida’s top line, or even Sullivan-Arnott-Dumont, he probably has 55 points and 18 or 19 goals.

I would argue that if you put Shea Weber on Ovechkin’s PP unit he probably scores 30+ goals, too, and gets a ton of assists from rebounds going in off of his wicked shot. His shot is better than Green’s and he’s better defensively. I’m not saying Weber should win the Norris but I don’t think Green should run away with it either.

by Chris Burton on Apr 6, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs