Ducks vs. Red Wings 2nd-round preview

by Dirk Hoag on May 1, 2009 12:46 AM EDT Comment 1 comment

The Blogs

Battle of California vs. Winging It In Motown

The Storyline

Detroit couldn't have had a better opening round of the playoffs, dismissing the Columbus Blue Jackets with a convincing sweep, while the Ducks are already being heralded as "the best 8th-seed team ever" following their 1st-round victory over the San Jose Sharks. Expect high-quality, intense action between two teams that met in a classic series in the 2007 playoffs, which Anaheim won en route to winning the Stanley Cup.

The Numbers

	Anaheim		Detroit
Record	42-33-7	17th	51-21-10	3rd
Pts %	0.555	17th	0.683	3rd
Goals For/Game	2.90	14th	3.52	1st
Goals Against/Game	2.87	18th	2.93	19th
5-on-5 GF/GA	1.09	9th	1.20	4th
PP%	23.6	4th	25.5	1st
PK%	79.7	23rd	78.3	25th
Shots/Game	30.3	11th	36.2	1st
Shots Against/Game	30.5	19th	27.7	2nd
FO %	49.8	17th	55.1	1st

Detroit holds a clear edge in just about every territory, but give credit to the Ducks for the adjustments they made at the trade deadline. While most observers reckoned that the team was looking ahead towards the free agency period, new additions like Ryan Whitney and the return of Francois Beauchemain from injury have deepened and solidified a top-notch defense corps. I suspect the Anaheim skaters won't be totally mismatched, as would otherwise appear to be the case here.

Goaltending

Anaheim

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Jean-Sebastien Giguere	46	2458	19	18	6	3	127	3.10	1274	1147	.900	2
2008 - Jonas Hiller	46	2486	23	15	1	6	99	2.39	1217	1118	.919	4

Detroit

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Ty Conklin	40	2246	25	11	2	4	94	2.51	1033	939	.909	6
2008 - Chris Osgood	46	2663	26	9	8	0	137	3.09	1208	1071	.887	2

Anaheim made the gutsy decision to go with Jonas Hiller to start the playoffs, and he hasn't disappointed. Chris Osgood has, for now, shaken off criticism based on his awful regular season results, but Anaheim should pose more of a challenge than Columbus did.

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

Anaheim	Penalties Drawn			Detroit	Penalties Drawn
Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-	Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-
Corey Perry	52	48	+4	Henrik Zetterberg	38	18	+20
Ryan Getzlaf	36	50	-14	Pavel Datsyuk	30	10	+20
George Parros	33	33	0	Marian Hossa	30	25	+5
Bobby Ryan	27	15	+12	Valtteri Filppula	29	20	+9
Teemu Selanne	17	13	+4	Mikael Samuelsson	26	25	+1
Todd Marchant	17	16	+1	Kirk Maltby	23	14	+9
	Penalties Taken				Penalties Taken
Ryan Getzlaf	36	50	-14	Niklas Kronwall	10	26	-16
Corey Perry	52	48	+4	Marian Hossa	30	25	+5
Chris Pronger	10	39	-29	Mikael Samuelsson	26	25	+1
George Parros	33	33	0	Dan Cleary	22	23	-1
Scott Niedermayer	15	30	-15	Tomas Kopecky	21	23	-2
Rob Niedermayer	4	21	-17	Brett Lebda	5	23	-18

One of the keys to Anaheim's first-round victory was the outstanding work by their penalty killing crew, because if there's one consistent theme with the Ducks, it's a parade to the penalty box. Top offensive leaders usually have positive Penalty Plus/Minus values, but Ryan Getzlaf's -14 is one of the worst for a forward in the entire NHL. That PK effort will be essential if the Ducks are to survive the Red Wings' league-leading power play.

The Prediction

One thing Detroit should be able to do that San Jose couldn't was drive the net; the Wings are deep in talented goal-scorers who aren't shy about getting their nose dirty. That offensive depth, combined with the strength (and the likely number of opportunities) of the Detroit power play, should be the difference-maker, so I'm taking the Detroit Red Wings. Oh, and Earl? You're welcome.