The Blogs
The Storylines
Both the Penguins and Capitals faced stiff challenges during the first round, and now the NHL's hype-meter is threatening to blow with the prospect of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin facing off in the Eastern Conference Semifinal.
The Numbers
| Pittsburgh | Washington | |||
| Record | 45-28-9 | 8th | 50-24-8 | 5th |
| Pts % | .604 | 8th | .659 | 4th |
| Goals For/Game | 3.15 | 6th | 3.27 | 3rd |
| Goals Against/Game | 2.84 | 17th | 2.93 | 19th |
| 5-on-5 GF/GA | 1.18 | 5th | 1.10 | 8th |
| PP% | 17.2 | 19th | 25.2 | 2nd |
| PK% | 82.7 | 8th | 80.6 | 17th |
| Shots/Game | 29.0 | 18th | 33.5 | 2nd |
| Shots Against/Game | 30.3 | 17th | 29.5 | 12th |
| FO % | 49.1 | 18th | 51.7 | 7th |
Overall, this is a tight matchup; Washington plays a slightly more up-tempo game in that both Goals For and Against are higher than Pittsburgh's. The Penguins are the better team at even strength, while the Caps rely on a dangerous power play.
Goaltending
Pittsburgh
Washington
Varlamov made a name for himself in the first round, but he'll have a much harder time stopping a deep and diverse Pittsburgh attack.
Penalties
No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:
| Pittsburgh | Penalties Drawn | Washington | Penalties Drawn | ||||
| Player | Draws | Fouls | Pen +/- | Player | Draws | Fouls | Pen +/- |
| Evgeni Malkin | 62 | 39 | +23 | Alex Ovechkin | 42 | 35 | +7 |
| Sidney Crosby | 43 | 29 | +14 | Brooks Laich | 33 | 14 | +19 |
| Matt Cooke | 30 | 35 | -5 | Alex Semin | 30 | 32 | -2 |
| Eric Godard | 29 | 39 | -10 | Donald Brashear | 26 | 33 | -7 |
| Jordan Staal | 28 | 17 | +11 | Mike Green | 25 | 34 | -9 |
| Chris Kunitz | 27 | 27 | 0 | Matt Bradley | 23 | 16 | +7 |
| Penalties Taken | |||||||
| Evgeni Malkin | 62 | 39 | +23 | Alex Ovechkin | 42 | 35 | +7 |
| Eric Godard | 29 | 39 | -10 | Mike Green | 25 | 34 | -9 |
| Matt Cooke | 30 | 35 | -5 | Milan Jurcina | 7 | 34 | -27 |
| Brooks Orpik | 25 | 34 | -9 | Donald Brashear | 26 | 33 | -7 |
| Bill Guerin | 22 | 30 | -8 | Alex Semin | 30 | 32 | -2 |
| Sidney Crosby | 43 | 29 | +14 | Shaone Morrison | 18 | 31 | -13 |
Both teams have some eye-popping talent which can turn defenders inside-out, but Washington has done the better job capitalizing (pun thoroughly intended) on their power play opportunities.
The Prediction
Two factors in particular lead me to pick the Pittsburgh Penguins. First, they've been a much better team since Dan Bylsma took over behind the bench, meaning that (like Anaheim and Carolina) they're probably a better team than "The Numbers" section above indicates, since it is based on total-season results. Secondly, Washington's goaltending is likely to be exposed against a strong Penguins team.
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