Penguins vs. Capitals 2nd-round preview

by Dirk Hoag on May 1, 2009 3:58 PM EDT

The Blogs

The Storylines

Both the Penguins and Capitals faced stiff challenges during the first round, and now the NHL's hype-meter is threatening to blow with the prospect of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin facing off in the Eastern Conference Semifinal.

The Numbers

	Pittsburgh		Washington
Record	45-28-9	8th	50-24-8	5th
Pts %	.604	8th	.659	4th
Goals For/Game	3.15	6th	3.27	3rd
Goals Against/Game	2.84	17th	2.93	19th
5-on-5 GF/GA	1.18	5th	1.10	8th
PP%	17.2	19th	25.2	2nd
PK%	82.7	8th	80.6	17th
Shots/Game	29.0	18th	33.5	2nd
Shots Against/Game	30.3	17th	29.5	12th
FO %	49.1	18th	51.7	7th

Overall, this is a tight matchup; Washington plays a slightly more up-tempo game in that both Goals For and Against are higher than Pittsburgh's. The Penguins are the better team at even strength, while the Caps rely on a dangerous power play.

Goaltending

Pittsburgh

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Marc-Andre Fleury	62	3641	35	18	7	5	162	2.67	1850	1688	.912	4

Washington

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Jose Theodore	57	3287	32	17	5	4	157	2.87	1572	1415	.900	2
2008 - Simeon Varlamov	6	329	4	0	1	0	13	2.37	159	146	.918	0

Varlamov made a name for himself in the first round, but he'll have a much harder time stopping a deep and diverse Pittsburgh attack.

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

Pittsburgh	Penalties Drawn			Washington	Penalties Drawn
Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-	Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-
Evgeni Malkin	62	39	+23	Alex Ovechkin	42	35	+7
Sidney Crosby	43	29	+14	Brooks Laich	33	14	+19
Matt Cooke	30	35	-5	Alex Semin	30	32	-2
Eric Godard	29	39	-10	Donald Brashear	26	33	-7
Jordan Staal	28	17	+11	Mike Green	25	34	-9
Chris Kunitz	27	27	0	Matt Bradley	23	16	+7
	Penalties Taken
Evgeni Malkin	62	39	+23	Alex Ovechkin	42	35	+7
Eric Godard	29	39	-10	Mike Green	25	34	-9
Matt Cooke	30	35	-5	Milan Jurcina	7	34	-27
Brooks Orpik	25	34	-9	Donald Brashear	26	33	-7
Bill Guerin	22	30	-8	Alex Semin	30	32	-2
Sidney Crosby	43	29	+14	Shaone Morrison	18	31	-13

Both teams have some eye-popping talent which can turn defenders inside-out, but Washington has done the better job capitalizing (pun thoroughly intended) on their power play opportunities.

The Prediction

Two factors in particular lead me to pick the Pittsburgh Penguins. First, they've been a much better team since Dan Bylsma took over behind the bench, meaning that (like Anaheim and Carolina) they're probably a better team than "The Numbers" section above indicates, since it is based on total-season results. Secondly, Washington's goaltending is likely to be exposed against a strong Penguins team.