Hurricanes vs. Penguins Eastern Conference Finals preview

by Dirk Hoag on May 18, 2009 1:59 PM EDT

The Blogs

The Storyline

The Penguins continue their quest to return to the Stanley Cup Finals after having defeated Washington in a star-studded affair, while Carolina hopes for a replay of 2006 following their seventh-game overtime knockout of the #1 seed Boston Bruins. Both teams turned on the jets after a mid-season coaching change, but which one will claim the Prince of Wales Trophy and play for the Cup?

The Numbers

	Carolina		Pittsburgh
Record	45-30-7	11th	45-28-9	8th
Pts %	.591	11th	.604	8th
Goals For/Game	2.88	16th	3.15	6th
Goals Against/Game	2.70	8th	2.84	17th
5-on-5 GF/GA	1.00	16th	1.18	5th
PP%	18.7	18th	17.2	19th
PK%	80.4	19th	82.7	8th
Shots/Game	32.6	6th	29.0	18th
Shots Against/Game	29.5	12th	30.3	17th
FO %	51.3	8th	49.1	18th

Neither of these teams jumps out at you as being particularly elite, but the Penguins do have a slight edge in terms of overall GF/GA.

Goaltending

Carolina

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Michael Leighton	19	1029	6	7	2	1	50	2.92	507	457	.901	0
2008 - Cam Ward	68	3928	39	23	5	10	160	2.44	1901	1741	.916	6

Pittsburgh

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2008 - Marc-Andre Fleury	62	3641	35	18	7	5	162	2.67	1850	1688	.912	4

Be prepared to hear, over and over again, that Cam Ward has never lost a playoff series. Folks, that's not a statistic, it's just a fluky fact. Carolina does get the nod in this area, though, as Fleury has just been "good enough" to get Pittsburgh this far, while Ward's .927 playoff save percentage and 2 shutouts are tops among remaining goaltenders.

Penalties

No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:

Carolina	Penalties Drawn			Pittsburgh	Penalties Drawn
Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-	Player	Draws	Fouls	Pen +/-
Erik Cole	49	25	+24	Evgeni Malkin	62	39	+23
Eric Staal	45	24	+21	Sidney Crosby	43	29	+14
Tuomo Ruutu	40	37	+3	Matt Cooke	30	35	-5
Tim Gleason	30	28	+2	Eric Godard	29	39	-10
Chad LaRose	26	16	+10	Jordan Staal	28	17	+11
Ray Whitney	23	16	+7	Chris Kunitz	27	27	0
	Penalties Taken				Penalties Taken
Tuomo Ruutu	40	37	+3	Evgeni Malkin	62	39	+23
Joni Pitkanen	13	30	-17	Eric Godard	29	39	-10
Tim Gleason	30	28	+2	Matt Cooke	30	35	-5
Erik Cole	49	25	+24	Brooks Orpik	25	34	-9
Eric Staal	45	24	+21	Bill Guerin	22	30	-8
Niclas Wallin	8	21	-13	Sidney Crosby	43	29	+14

When it comes to Penalty Plus/Minus in the playoffs, as I noted last Friday the Staal brothers lead the NHL so far with matching +6 ratings. At the overall team level, Carolina had the most power plays (374) in the league this year, with Pittsburgh not too far behind (360) in a 3-way tie for 4th. Whereas the Penguins were middle-of-the-pack in terms of penalties they had to kill off (347), however, the Hurricanes had the 3rd-fewest in the league with 301. If Carolina can maintain that discipline and tip the special teams opportunities in their favor, it could prove to be a significant advantage.

The Prediction

After facing off against his greatest individual rival, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and his mates face a more non-descript opponent in Carolina; Eric Staal is recognized among puck-heads as a fantastic player, but after that the big names are few and far between. By getting valuable contributions from a variety of role-players, however, I expect the Carolina Hurricanes to triumph through a combination of special teams superiority and better goaltending.

Poll

Which team will win this series?

Carolina Hurricanes

16 votes

Pittsburgh Penguins

16 votes

32 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Interesting analysis…either outcome wouldn’t surprise me, as Carolina is a deeper team than I think most recognize and the certainly have a great goalie.

One thing I might say for the Pens is the shot totals…They’re at 35.1 / game in these playoffs (highest among actives other than Detroit). With the new aggressive style that new coach Dan Bylsma has installed, the Pens have really turned it aroun. They absolutely shelled Varlamov into submission. As a more tested playoff vet — and with a much more favorable schedule — I don’t expect Ward to wear down nearly that much, but I think the Pens will create a lot of scoring chances on him with puck possession and skill plays from their elite scorers.

Whether they can convert (or if Ward or a defender can stop it) will be the key to the series to me.

by Hooks Orpik on May 18, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions