The Blogs
The Storyline
The Penguins continue their quest to return to the Stanley Cup Finals after having defeated Washington in a star-studded affair, while Carolina hopes for a replay of 2006 following their seventh-game overtime knockout of the #1 seed Boston Bruins. Both teams turned on the jets after a mid-season coaching change, but which one will claim the Prince of Wales Trophy and play for the Cup?
The Numbers
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | |||
| Record | 45-30-7 | 11th | 45-28-9 | 8th |
| Pts % | .591 | 11th | .604 | 8th |
| Goals For/Game | 2.88 | 16th | 3.15 | 6th |
| Goals Against/Game | 2.70 | 8th | 2.84 | 17th |
| 5-on-5 GF/GA | 1.00 | 16th | 1.18 | 5th |
| PP% | 18.7 | 18th | 17.2 | 19th |
| PK% | 80.4 | 19th | 82.7 | 8th |
| Shots/Game | 32.6 | 6th | 29.0 | 18th |
| Shots Against/Game | 29.5 | 12th | 30.3 | 17th |
| FO % | 51.3 | 8th | 49.1 | 18th |
Neither of these teams jumps out at you as being particularly elite, but the Penguins do have a slight edge in terms of overall GF/GA.
Goaltending
Carolina
Pittsburgh
Be prepared to hear, over and over again, that Cam Ward has never lost a playoff series. Folks, that's not a statistic, it's just a fluky fact. Carolina does get the nod in this area, though, as Fleury has just been "good enough" to get Pittsburgh this far, while Ward's .927 playoff save percentage and 2 shutouts are tops among remaining goaltenders.
Penalties
No OtF preview would be complete without a look at Penalty Plus/Minus, to see which players will head to, or send other players to, the box:
| Carolina | Penalties Drawn | Pittsburgh | Penalties Drawn | ||||
| Player | Draws | Fouls | Pen +/- | Player | Draws | Fouls | Pen +/- |
| Erik Cole | 49 | 25 | +24 | Evgeni Malkin | 62 | 39 | +23 |
| Eric Staal | 45 | 24 | +21 | Sidney Crosby | 43 | 29 | +14 |
| Tuomo Ruutu | 40 | 37 | +3 | Matt Cooke | 30 | 35 | -5 |
| Tim Gleason | 30 | 28 | +2 | Eric Godard | 29 | 39 | -10 |
| Chad LaRose | 26 | 16 | +10 | Jordan Staal | 28 | 17 | +11 |
| Ray Whitney | 23 | 16 | +7 | Chris Kunitz | 27 | 27 | 0 |
| Penalties Taken | Penalties Taken | ||||||
| Tuomo Ruutu | 40 | 37 | +3 | Evgeni Malkin | 62 | 39 | +23 |
| Joni Pitkanen | 13 | 30 | -17 | Eric Godard | 29 | 39 | -10 |
| Tim Gleason | 30 | 28 | +2 | Matt Cooke | 30 | 35 | -5 |
| Erik Cole | 49 | 25 | +24 | Brooks Orpik | 25 | 34 | -9 |
| Eric Staal | 45 | 24 | +21 | Bill Guerin | 22 | 30 | -8 |
| Niclas Wallin | 8 | 21 | -13 | Sidney Crosby | 43 | 29 | +14 |
When it comes to Penalty Plus/Minus in the playoffs, as I noted last Friday the Staal brothers lead the NHL so far with matching +6 ratings. At the overall team level, Carolina had the most power plays (374) in the league this year, with Pittsburgh not too far behind (360) in a 3-way tie for 4th. Whereas the Penguins were middle-of-the-pack in terms of penalties they had to kill off (347), however, the Hurricanes had the 3rd-fewest in the league with 301. If Carolina can maintain that discipline and tip the special teams opportunities in their favor, it could prove to be a significant advantage.
The Prediction
After facing off against his greatest individual rival, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and his mates face a more non-descript opponent in Carolina; Eric Staal is recognized among puck-heads as a fantastic player, but after that the big names are few and far between. By getting valuable contributions from a variety of role-players, however, I expect the Carolina Hurricanes to triumph through a combination of special teams superiority and better goaltending.
Poll
Which team will win this series?
Carolina Hurricanes (16 votes)
Pittsburgh Penguins (16 votes)
32 total votes
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