Debating the question: Should the Nashville Predators give Antti Pihlstrom a one-way contract?

by Dirk Hoag on Jul 15, 2009 10:41 AM EDT

As John Glennon reported yesterday, the negotiations between the Nashville Predators and restricted free agent Antti Pihlstrom have hit a roadblock over the issue of a one-way contract. Pihlstrom, who made $530,000 last season, wants a one-way contract, which will pay him the same salary whether he's on Nashville's roster or sent down to the AHL affiliate in Milwaukee. For all practical purposes, such a contract would commit the Preds to keeping him at the NHL level all season.

Antti Pihlstrom

#42 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 5-10

Weight: 181

Born: Oct 22, 1984

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Antti Pihlstrom	53	2	5	7	-1	10	1	0	0	0	88	2.3

The threat is that Pihlstrom could head back to Europe rather than accept a two-way deal. So what do you think, folks? Has Pihlstrom earned his stripes as an NHL regular?

After the jump, we'll review the cases for and against...

The Numbers (5-on-5)

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	RATING	QUALCOMP	QUALTEAM	CORSI	GOALS/60	PTS/60	GFON/60	GAON/60
Antti Pihlstrom	LW	53	10.77	-0.33	-0.08	-0.13	12.1	0.11	0.63	1.26	1.47
Martin Erat	RW	71	13.59	0.04	0.04	0.06	5.1	0.81	1.93	2.55	2.80
David Legwand	C	73	14.03	0.20	0.03	-0.03	2.8	0.82	1.70	2.29	2.34
J.P. Dumont	RW	82	13.58	0.67	-0.02	0.06	0.6	0.65	2.26	3.18	2.96
Patric Hornqvist	LW	28	10.13	-0.66	-0.02	0.01	-1.1	0.42	1.27	2.33	2.75
Joel Ward	RW	79	12.14	0.16	0.01	-0.05	-1.6	0.75	1.69	2.31	2.44
Jason Arnott	C	65	13.82	0.69	0.00	0.13	-1.9	1.60	2.54	3.61	3.41
Jordin Tootoo	RW	72	11.36	-0.96	-0.05	-0.16	-4.1	0.29	1.10	1.39	2.42
Ryan Jones	LW	46	9.89	0.47	-0.05	-0.07	-4.5	0.66	1.45	1.58	1.19
Steve Sullivan	C	41	14.1	0.78	0.00	0.20	-5.8	0.73	2.18	3.01	2.49
Vernon Fiddler	C	78	10.57	-1.26	-0.01	-0.03	-6.7	0.51	0.87	1.67	2.91
Scott Nichol	C	43	8.24	-0.36	-0.04	-0.20	-8.8	0.68	1.19	1.52	2.03
Radek Bonk	C	66	12.2	-0.70	-0.01	-0.14	-9.0	0.22	0.97	1.34	2.31
Jerred Smithson	C	82	10.84	-0.37	-0.02	-0.20	-10.4	0.27	0.81	1.82	2.36

Data from Behind the Net

PRO

Pihlstrom's speed is a difference-maker even in the NHL, and his willingness to hit any opponent actively disrupts the other team's attack. This is reflected in his Goals Against/60 figure of 1.47, well below that of the other regular Nashville forwards, and his Corsi value of 12.1 (which means Nashville fires 12.1 more Total Shots, per 60 minutes of play, than the opponent while Pihlstrom is on the ice) leads the entire team. He achieved this while usually playing with inferior linemates (his QUALTEAM measures the quality of teammates on the ice with him), and while he only scored 2 goals on 83 shots, that 2.3 Shooting Percentage is likely a fluke, given his 27 goals for the Milwaukee Admirals in 2007-8, which led that team.

Given another year to let his hockey sense catch up with his tremendous skating speed, Pihlstrom could make an effective winger on a shutdown line, with breakaway potential in the transition game.

CON

Part of that outstanding defensive performance can be attributed to the quality of opposition that Pihlstrom regularly faced. His QUALCOMP of -0.08 is worst among the Nashville forwards, meaning his was matched up against 3rd- and 4th-liners to a great extent. Even though his Goals Against was admirably low (1.47), the fact remains that Goals For/60 Minutes was even lower (1.26) during Pihlstrom's shifts, which remains a losing combination.

His own personal ability to put the puck in the net was lacking; his shooting percentage was among the very worst in the NHL among forwards who played at least half the season, and his overall Points/60 Minutes of 0.63 shows that he didn't generate goals for his linemates, either. As he turns 25 this fall, there's little reason to believe that much upside remains in his offensive game. Most prospects have proven their goal-scoring ability by this point in their career, and Pihlstrom hasn't done enough in Nashville to warrant a one-way contract.

Poll

Should the Nashville Predators give Antti Pihlstrom a one-way contract?

Yes

33 votes

No

72 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 11 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

No offense Dirk but...

This whole story didn’t start with John. He picked up on the trail 3 days late. Its been discussed all weekend. This isn’t to pick at you by any means, it just gets tiring to see the wrong people sourced. It happens all the time of course at various places. Again, not picking at you, but had to rant a little. Thanks for letting me. Lol.

View my blog here: Felder's Blog

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by Brandon Felder on Jul 15, 2009 10:47 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I don’t know who reported it initially, but Glennon’s is the first article I’ve seen with quotes from Poile that laid out his position. I saw that you did have a tweet on Saturday that referred to “a little rumor I heard”, but I wasn’t planning to write up this piece based on just that.

Is there another report that I missed?

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Jul 15, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Not really

Its really more a rant against the MSM I guess. They never seem to indicate where stories come from. It got a lot of play on the Preds message boards and HB. Like I said, not attacking you at all, just venting. The more you make yourself known in the media section (and I hope you will Dirk) you’ll discover that the MSM will follow things you write and take it further because of their better contacts, and act like they came up with it. Just frustrating is all.

View my blog here: Felder's Blog

Listen to my radio show every Monday night at 6 pm CST here: WNSR

by Brandon Felder on Jul 15, 2009 11:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

In a way, I think the MSM still has a very valuable purpose there. They should keep an ear to the ground for rumors like this and turn it into a publishable piece by confirming with the GM, getting his standpoint on the situation, etc. That’s what a traditional journalist can do better than any blogger.

Where the problem lies is a reluctance on behalf of many in the MSM to credit the initial source of such information. Sometimes at the Tennessean we might see something vague like “internet reports suggested…”, but that’s about it. They can do much better in that regard.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Jul 15, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly!

Well put. That’s the thing. If you or I get a rare scoop we are proud and feel good to be the first to inform our readers and others. But then down the road everyone acts like JG or another MSM source got the scoop. If they would just identify the internet rumblings or whatever then the relationship between both parties would be better. They would piss and moan if we don’t source them (and they have plenty at other bloggers). Yet they don’t have the courtesy to return the favor.

View my blog here: Felder's Blog

Listen to my radio show every Monday night at 6 pm CST here: WNSR

by Brandon Felder on Jul 15, 2009 12:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m probably going against public sentiment, but I would not want to lose Pihlstrom. We have had a lot of turnover on the 3rd/4th lines this year and need to keep some continuity. I still feel that Pihlstrom has an upside that involves a few more goals and better numbers in other areas. If he could rise to an NHL average % of shots scoring, he would pick up some of the scoring slack that is desperately needed. He spent very little time on lines where he had a good chance to show his scoring potential last season.

by Preds On The Glass on Jul 15, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions

No, no, no, no!!

Does that answer your question? haha Seriously, we don’t need another player like him on our team. I was not at all impressed with his effort last season. I don’t care if he’s a fast skater. I would prefer someone, ANYONE, else really.

by whatthepuck on Jul 15, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

My sentiments lay somewhere between Preds On The Glass and whatthepuck. I’d like to see him stay and have enjoyed watching his efforts to break up plays, but in no way do I believe he’s earned the right to a one-way contract. He needs that two-way deal to motivate him to produce. If he doesn’t like it, then c’est la vie — enjoy Europe, Antti!

by expatwildcat on Jul 15, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

… Or to paraphrase Monty Python: “I wave my private parts at your Antti!”

by expatwildcat on Jul 15, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

A one-way leaves the team with no flexibility if he fails to perform. Perform and stay on the big club roster with the NHL salary ….. slip and enjoy AHL money. Good effort, lots of energy …. but little to show for it. It’s not as though he’s making demands from a strong position.

And Brandon, there is a difference in your little tweet about a rumor and an actual story. Instead of ranting about the MSM, get the quotes, find out the details and post them first. He did the leg work and was able to put out a fleshed out piece, you kept yours under 140 characters.

by 101st on Jul 15, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions

A: He’s paid to write out full reports and do the “leg work”.

B: He is granted almost instant access to get said quotes because he is the MSM. I can’t just call Poile like Glennon can.

C: I’m not going to get into a public message board battle with you because you already have a history in regards to me yet have never talked to me one on one. If you want to further hash it out though, feel free to email me. Its always posted at the bottom of my blog. I’m open to debate and criticism of my work.

View my blog here: Felder's Blog

Listen to my radio show every Monday night at 6 pm CST here: WNSR

by Brandon Felder on Jul 15, 2009 9:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions