What price should the Nashville Predators pay for Phil Kessel?
While most of the hockey media has Phil Kessel pretty much signed, sealed and delivered to the Toronto Maple Leafs, word is still circulating that the Nashville Predators are still "very much in the hunt", and according to John Glennon at The Tennessean, "Kessel would indeed be agreeable to playing in Nashville."
The question on many Preds fans' minds, however, is whether this is a deal worth pursuing. Kessel is obviously talented, but would his salary (likely $4-5 million) fit within Nashville's operating budget, and what might the team have to give up in trade?
After the jump, let's dig into these questions and see where it might lead...
In terms of what Nashville might give up in a potential trade, let's rule some guys out, first. The 5 big forwards (Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, Legwand, Erat) and 3 top defensemen (Weber, Suter, Hamhuis) are likely untouchable, either due to no-trade clauses or their current value to the franchise. I'd exclude Joel Ward and Kevin Klein as well, due to Ward's irreplaceable role as an all-around player, and Klein being one of the few defensemen left on the team with any NHL experience. And after all the years spent grooming him, you just know Pekka Rinne isn't going anywhere (not that Boston needs a #1 goalie anyway).
So that leaves us with the following...
Trade Options
Alexander Radulov
I can already hear most Predators fans yelling "good riddance!", but Radulov's NHL rights might prove to be an interesting portion of any deal. While he's a high-caliber talent worthy of Boston's attention, the little matter of if, and when, Radulov wants to return to the NHL is an open question. If Poile can carve some present-day hockey value out of Radulov's rights at this point, that would be a major boost to the organization.
Future Draft Picks
David Poile loves to stockpile draft picks, particularly middle- to late-round ones, but this may be a case where getting a proven young player is worth giving up the chance that a particular future selection turns into a 36 goal-scoring winger by 2013 or so. Especially when you consider that the number of such players the Preds have drafted and developed over the last 10 years is... 0 (Scott Hartnell's come close, and of course he's long gone).
Jonathan Blum
He's talented, and on the rise, but did the draft of Ryan Ellis (who in many ways is a similar player) create room to make a move here?
Dan Ellis
Might the Bruins prefer Ellis as a backup for Tim Thomas instead of Tuukka Rask? This would certainly help the Preds manage Kessel's salary, although it would put tremendous responsibility on Pekka Rinne to handle the #1 goaltending job without an established safety net.
Cody Franson
He's huge, he piled up points at the AHL level last year, and is now ready for the NHL. Might the Bruins want to groom him under Zdeno Chara's enormous wing?
Ryan Jones
Yes, I know he just signed a new two-year contract, but let's face it, Kessel is a proven Top Six winger, while Jones is still a work in progress.
Jordin Tootoo
The Bruins already boast Milan Lucic as a rough-and-tumble winger who can score, so Tootoo probably has less appeal to the Bruins than perhaps other teams.
Colin Wilson
Forget it, I just wanted to see if you were paying attention!
Salary Concerns
Certainly, bringing in Kessel at a likely price of $4-5 million per season will make an impact on Nashville's budget. According to CapGeek.com, the Preds currently have 22 players under contract for this season at a combined salary of $42.7 million (assuming Colin Wilson at the AHL level). Previous statements from David Poile indicate that the team is likely targeting the $44-46 million range for this season.
In other words, if enough salary leaves the team as part of a trade (Jones and/or Ellis, for example), the Preds might actually be able to shoehorn Kessel into the existing budget. Such an acquisition might actually help the team generate more revenue as well, but that's a long ways down the road.
Summary
So what say you, Preds fans? What do you think it would take, and what would you be willing to give up, to acquire Phil Kessel? Can our mild-mannered GM David Poile possibly defeat Brian "Lord Truculence" Burke in the quest for Kessel's services?
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Comments
I think Kessel’s underrated in general, he’s young and an excellent offensive talent — exactly what the Preds need. Throwing Radulov into a deal like that makes sense if Boston’s interested… the Bruins really can’t afford to take on any salary so it’s going to be prospects in a deal like this.
Great trade I think if Poile can pull it off.
Blogging on hockey at fromtherink.com
I'd be willing to trade any of those pieces
(except Wilson of course!) depending on what the total package is. Regarding salary, the Preds should just suck it up and pay 4-5MM, considering how well Kessel fills an organizational need.
Also, while we’re talking Rask, thought I’d bring this back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUVGz0MVyKI
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
One of Franson/Laakso and picks ……. GIVE THEM RADULOV IF THEY’LL TAKE THE LITTLE TRAITOROUS SOB. Pick wise, stay within the cost for an offer sheet. A 1st and 3rd if it’s below $4.5mil (avg) and 1st, 2nd, 3rd if we’re paying more than $4.5mil.
Anything above $4.25mil is a stretch. We lost money last year with a smaller payroll and Sullivan’s salary covered by insurance for the first half of the season. $45.5-46.5mil requires a playoff appearance to even think about breaking even. After running some scenarios at capgeek.com (I love that site) we’d be looking at about a 46.3 cap hit with Kessel at $4mil per using Belak as the 7th d-man …. Jones, O’Reilly, Ward, Smithson, Guite, Goc, Tootoo rounding off the bottom lines and scratch.
bruins perspective here…
colin wilson or ryan suter and picks is what is being thrown around on this end.
i dont see a deal happening without one of them being involved….none of those other prospects come close to kessel’s value. not even close.
kessel is a guy who scored 36 in only 70 games while playing the end of the season hurt enough that he required off season surgery. he would step in and easily be the best player on the preds.
thinking a 2nd or 3rd tier prospect and a couple of picks is going to get it done is silly.
(fyi: if kessel only wanted 4mil he would be staying in a spoked B)
boston doesnt want salary back so no current player likely in the trade unless its a younger cheaper one. i think its all irrelavent anyway. while im sure boston would rather send him here than toronto, kessel has to be signed. when it comes down to it WE WONT PAY HIM ENOUGH, so whatever we offer as trade bait wont matter
ERAT vs Kessel
I’d like to know- what makes Erat so untouchable? Last year he had 17 goals, and 33 assists, which totals 50 pts. His career high is 57 pts. He makes $5.25 million!!!!! Is that really worth it?? Kessel scored 60 pts last year, and he is younger! Plus, Erat is a defensive liability, and hardly ever has a good plus/minus rating. C’mon, what are we paying this guy for?
by lukestanleystp on Sep 16, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions
What to give up
Blum, Radulov rights, and…. ?
Not sure what it’s going to end up costing the Preds to get Kessel.
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