Nashville Predators set a fine scoring pace in the 1st half

by Dirk Hoag on Jan 3, 2010 10:01 PM EST in Statistical Analysis Comment 5 comments

With the Nashville Predators having kicked off the 2nd half of the 2009-10 NHL season with their 3-1 victory over Anaheim last night, it's a fitting time to check in with the projections that I had made back in early October for each individual Pred, and see how they've done to this point.

We've certainly seen some surprises along the way, but other stories have turned out as expected. In the comments below, I'd like to get your thoughts on what has impressed you about the Predators' 1st half.

Here's the listing of the Preds alongside my pre-season projection for their offensive stats, along with the pace they've set so far:

	Pre-season					Pace
Name	GP	G	A	Pts	October Comment	GP	G	A	Pts	2nd-half Comment
Jason Arnott	70	35	30	65	Might benefit the most from Sully's presence.	68	23	27	51	10-game goal scoring drought recently ended, team could use a resurgence from him.
Wade Belak	50	1	2	3	If he scores, it'll be a heck of a celebration.	45	0	4	4	Doesn't chuck the knuckles much, but playing well when asked to.
Francis Bouillon	70	2	10	12	By the end of the year, he'll make people forget Greg Zanon.	82	2	10	12	What did I tell ya? Zanon who?
J.P. Dumont	80	20	55	75	Has two genuine goal-scorers on his line, and lots of PP time.	68	14	37	51	Relegation to the Goc line hurts his individual numbers, but adds to team scoring depth.
Martin Erat	75	18	40	58	A career-high in points, but not enough to get excited about.	72	27	25	53	Red-hot streak reversed a lousy start. How will he return from injury?
Marcel Goc	70	4	10	14	Think of him as the new Radek Bonk, but costing half as much.	78	16	16	31	Bonk's 1st year in Nashville? 14 G, 15 A.
Ben Guite	60	2	6	8	Think of him as the new Scott Nichol, but costing half as much.	8	0	0	0	Looks like an Admiral this season.
Dan Hamhuis	80	5	20	25	Doesn't get the attention that Weber & Suter do, but he's gold.	74	8	16	23	The opening weeks looked like a disaster, but things have settled down.
Patric Hornqvist	60	12	20	32	2nd strong pre-season in a row, but in a battle for playing time.	80	25	18	43	Best hope for keeping up the scoring is that he leads the team in Shots. He's in the mix every night.
Ryan Jones	65	10	15	25	Off to a slow start coming out of training camp, must earn opportunity.	45	8	2	10	Can't seem to fight his way into a major role here.
Kevin Klein	80	4	12	16	Should prosper as a Top 4 defenseman after years of preparation.	80	2	14	16	First season as a Top 4 guy could be better, could be a lot worse.
Teemu Laakso	30	1	3	4	Will be eased into NHL action.	14	0	0	0	Still talked of highly by the organization.
David Legwand	75	22	34	56	A healthy rebound from last season, but not quite career highs.	82	20	31	51	Prospering as the shutdown guy.
Mike Santorelli	70	16	20	36	Speed and chemistry with Legwand & Erat give cause for hope.	45	4	2	6	His preseason magic just disappeared entirely.
Jerred Smithson	82	1	5	6	Defensive specialist isn't relied upon for scoring.	72	12	2	14	He's been opportunistic to this point, but I doubt he'll hit 10 goals.
Steve Sullivan	70	30	40	70	Offensive dynamo is the key to improved team play.	82	18	31	49	His speed isn't as big a difference-maker as it used to be, but he's still a threat.
Alexander Sulzer	55	1	6	7	Must work his way back into the lineup, but skill set is valuable.	21	0	2	2	Call him "Mr. Yo-Yo" for all his travel between Nashville & Milwaukee.
Ryan Suter	82	12	40	52	Continuing to mature as a top-level defenseman.	82	4	35	39	Looking forward to a key role on Team USA next month.
Jordin Tootoo	65	6	6	12	Will this be enough to earn #22 a new contract with Nashville?	37	4	14	18	Played well before getting injured.
Joel Ward	70	8	15	23	Expected to play major role on 3rd line and special teams.	78	14	29	43	We like him, we love him, we can't get enough of him.
Shea Weber	82	17	35	52	Must establish consistent performance at last year's elite level.	78	14	31	45	Battled through nagging injuries, and can do it all.
Colin Wilson	50	8	20	28	Can't expect everyday NHL dominance yet, but coming soon.	20	2	2	4	Preds need to tread slowly and make sure his groin is 100% before bringing him back.
Goalies	GS	W	Sv %	SO	Comment	GP	W	Sv %	SO	Comment
Dan Ellis	24	10	.908	3	He will get his chance to shine, likely earning a job somewhere else next year.	37	18	.906	0	Has been solid when called upon, will probably continue to get 1/3 or so of the work going forward.
Pekka Rinne	58	35	.915	8	Will be pressed by Ellis, but appears ready for the challenge.	55	31	.908	4	Hasn't taken a step forward in his 2nd NHL season, but hasn't fallen too far back, either. Improved team offense has helped tremendously.

The goalie numbers for "pace" use Games Played, as I couldn't find a good reference as to how many games each has started so far.

Not the goal-starved wretches that most (not all) predicted

The point that surprises most observers is that the Preds have managed to tally 2.79 Goals per Game, good for 13th in the NHL. What I had hoped for during the pre-season has largely come true, however; by pairing David Legwand with a pair of checkers (Joel Ward and Jerred Smithson, mostly) Nashville is better able to put together some decent scoring punch on a 3rd line, which recently has included Patric Hornqvist, Marcel Goc, and J.P. Dumont.

At their current rate, the Preds will score 227 goals this season. I projected them to score 235.

Going forward, I think there's a short-term hole that might be an area of focus at the trading deadline if the Preds decide to gear up for a playoff run. Marcel Goc has earned praise for centering Hornqvist and Dumont, but I really think Nashville could do much better in that role. Goc is better suited to 4th-line work and the occasional cameo taking a key faceoff, than centering a scoring line. The conventional wisdom has the Preds needed a scoring winger, but between Sullivan, Dumont, Erat and Hornqvist I think they've got that covered. A good pivot might also help that awful power play...

Hornqvist's triumph

During the exhibition season, it looked like Santorelli, Jones and Hornqvist all had an opportunity to earn a major role on the wing. What is important here is that there was pretty much only one prime slot available to compete for, as opposed to last season when rookies were expected to plug two major holes. Steve Sullivan's return has allowed the young players to develop at a more reasonable pace, and Hornqvist's determination to drive to the net and generate shots has clearly separated him from the pack.

A soft sophomore slump

Pekka Rinne has indeed assumed something close to a #1 starter's job this season, but hasn't shown the consistent dominance of last season's 2nd half. Many 2nd-year NHL goalies fall much harder than Rinne has this season (right, Steve Mason?), and there's no reason to believe that the team should be overly concerned here. If anything, a modest campaign makes it a little easier to sign him to a contract extension.

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Comments

Great work as usual

What really stands out to me is our scoring balance— between Hornqvist, Arnott, Sullivan, Dumont, Ward, Goc, Legwand, and Erat, we have enough guys capable of putting pucks in nets that it doesn’t hurt us nearly as much when one guy takes a night off like it did last year.

If Rinne picks up his form, look out. We could make a push for that 4th seed, which would be a huge accomplishment. Thats counting our chickens before they hatch, though—for now, consistency is the name of the game.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
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by Chris Burton on Jan 3, 2010 11:19 PM EST reply actions

You are a prophet. It’s amazing how close you were on a bunch of them. Good job.

by Preds On The Glass on Jan 3, 2010 11:45 PM EST reply actions

Joel Ward

Good work! Joel Ward is so freaking amazing on the puck, along the boards, and behind the net. I feel before the start of this season, a lot of people didn’t think he could produce and be the type of player he is. I think we can see a consistent 35+ points per season from him! Maybe more?

by Smashvillian on Jan 4, 2010 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Franson Left Out

Franson didn’t even make your preseason board! He and Buillion huge step up from DeVries and Zanon, aka, “the sculpture garden”.

by BerenzweigFan on Jan 4, 2010 7:34 PM EST reply actions

Welcome to OtF!

That’s right, based on how Laakso came out of training camp, and Sulzer’s two-way contract, it looked at the time like Franson wouldn’t get much time at the NHL level this season. He’s been outstanding, however. I love the way he doesn’t mess around, and gets pucks on net when he’s out there.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Jan 5, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions