The NHL's West is the Best... again

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 13, 2010 10:21 AM EST in Statistical Analysis

I was taking a look through the standings this morning, and was struck by just how strong the Western Conference teams appear as a whole right now. Naturally, a part of this standings inflation is due to the Overtime Loser Point, which remains a pox on the face of the NHL, but when you look at head-to-head records between Western and Eastern teams, the dominance does indeed stand out.

To put it in perspective, in their record against the East, the West is playing like last year's Phoenix Coyotes, while on the opposite end of the matchup, the Eastern Conference looks like the New York Islanders. Follow after the jump for all the details...

The following table shows the combined record of each conference against the other, for this season the two previous:

	West vs. East	82-game pace	East vs. West	82-game pace
2010-11	37-18-8	106	26-28-9	79
2009-10	155-87-28	103	115-118-37	81
2008-9	141-103-26	94	129-113-28	87

I've added a Google Spreadsheet in which you can view these inter-conference records by team and season, to parse out whatever meaning you like.

Alongside each record, I put the equivalent result if a single team were to play at that pace over the course of an 82-game season. As you can see, what was a relatively mild gap two years ago has spread into a yawning chasm. The West, on average, plays at a playoff-caliber pace, while the East would be in the running for a lottery pick.

Now of course, we're only about 20% of the way through the current campaign, so we'll have to wait to see if the trend reverses itself over the next few months, but considering that the Red Wings haven't even played an Eastern foe yet, there's potential for things to get even more extreme.

So why is it that the West seems so superior to the East? Are they hardier for having to endure the hardships of greater travel? Is there a greater focus on high-paid "stars" in the East, leaving the Western teams more balanced?

Feel free to sound off in the comments with your own theories...

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How much does this really mean?

a few really bad teams (NYI, Toronto, and Atlanta in the E, Edmonton in the West)
really skews the overall numbers.

As does the charity point for overtime losses and the shootout 3-point games (which, really, are a skillz competition and not hockey).
This year, Nashville has lost to Pittsburgh and Washington (at home) in overtime,
legitimate wins (for most of NHL history), legitimate losses where the loser got nothing (until recently).

The good teams in East (and West) probably fare alot better than the overall numbers.
Do we really care if Edmonton and Columbus and Calgary and Minnesota get the lion’s share of points versus the SouthLeast Division?

We only get 18 games against the East (and did very well), which works out to 1 per team plus three ‘doubles". Last year those three doubles were against Atlanta (two wins), Florida (two wins), and NJ (shootout “win”, legitimate loss).
We beat playoff teams like Montreal, Ottawa Philly and Pittsburgh (though the last two were in a shootout ’win" so you can’t say we could beat them in real hockey) but lost to Buffalo, Boston and TORONTO for cryin out loud.

Without the shootout ‘wins’ and if we had extra games against Boston and Pittsburgh instead of Atlanta and Florida,
what do you really think our record would be?

This is akin to the excuses we have every spring for losing in the first round. “Well, if we weren’t in the West” and “didnt’ play Det/SJ/Chi” we’d win One, its the teams fault for playing the way they do and not getting a higher seed (and weaker comp.).
Two, if we did the same in the East, and played Washington, we’d probably lose, and deserve to, unless Rinne pulled a Halak. Three, even when we had home ice (versus SJ), we crapped the bed twice. Bad matchup against a good SJ club? Then why was SJ a playoff flop, except for when they played us? How good was SJ really?

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 11:10 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

And

How much of this is skewed by Detroit,
which would be the best franchise (regular season and post) of the past twenty years,
regardless of where they played?
And they have to endure the toughest travel.
Without the Wings, the West powerhouse would be who, San Jose? and there annual belly flop into oblivion?

Saying the average team is PHX versus NYI is absurd. Unless you realize that PHX loads up on charity points (or at least last year they did)..

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 11:15 AM EST reply actions

1) Detroit doesn’t have the toughest travel schedule.

2) The Red Wings haven’t even played the East yet this season, so the current-year numbers may well get even more extreme.

3) The comparisons to PHX and NYI were based on the point totals, not style of play, or how those points were earned.

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by Dirk Hoag on Nov 13, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Point 3

Style of play is not relevant, but how the points are earned and versus which teams certainly are.To say PHX was a success story last year is true, but you have to factor that they had a historic amount of shootout wins. Again, not real hockey.

And when Nashville went 12-4-2 last year,
it included ‘double ups" against Atlanta and Florida, two of the SouthLeast.
They didn’t fair as well against the playoff (good) teams, with only two victories, skater versus skater, in 9 games. Without the "pox on the face’ of 3 point games and OTL loser points, Nashville had its struggles against the good East teams as they did with the West.
They ate up the non playoff teams (one legitimate skater versus skater loss).

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

What's your point?

You can find individual teams that did better or worse than the trend, obviously. I’m pointing out conference-wide results which show a pretty wide performance gap.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker, or join our legions on Facebook at Facebook.com/OnTheForecheck.

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 13, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

Who they play can skew the results, as does OTL and SO 'wins'

Nashville: 12-4-2, sounds like world beaters. They could be the Caps in the E.
Or:
Nashville: two skater versus skater victories in 9 games against playoff teams.
They could be a borderline playoff team in the E, much like the W.

Both numbers are true, but tell different stories.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

BCS

Would you be interested if Boise St. or TCU could beat up on Kentucky and Vanderbilt?
Its more interesting to see how they would fare against Auburn and Alabama?

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

And the top recent full-season records against the East go to:

1) Columbus in 2008-9: 13-3-2
2) L.A. in 2009-10: 14-4-0
3) San Jose in 2008-9: 12-3-3
4) Nashville in 2009-10: 12-4-2
5) San Jose in 2009-10: 12-4-2
6) Vancouver in 2009-10: 13-5-0

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker, or join our legions on Facebook at Facebook.com/OnTheForecheck.

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 13, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Playoff versus playoff teams

Any easy way to get the numbers for how the good teams match up against the good teams, taking away OTL points and shoot ‘wins’?

I only looked up Nashville last year, but did it manually. Managed two legit w (montreal, ottawa), three legit losses (Boston, NJ, Buffalo), and four shootout games (3-1, Phi, NJ, Pitts and Wash), in 9 games against playoff teams.

This year: two losses (Caps and Pens) versus one win (at TB), though obviously we have no idea who the playoff teams are amongst the three, though we could guess all three could make it.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 13, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions

I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader

Feel free!

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker, or join our legions on Facebook at Facebook.com/OnTheForecheck.

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 13, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

WEST IS BEST

you seem to have a burr under your saddle but the west is, and has been, dominant over the east for the last few seasons. dirk is just assigning the numbers to a team from last year for clairity purposes. and as far as “legit wins”. if they count in the win column… its legit. im sure you are happy w/ the new tiebreaker rule this year, but until this season began they are legit wins.

by predswilrule on Nov 13, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Does anyone have "The End" stuck in their head now?

by DonBorvio on Nov 13, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

Are you guys ready to petition for a realignment that transfers you to the East?

If I were to realign things, I would reassign you guys to the South East, kick out the Caps and move them to the Atlantic (which houses the teams I hate), and kick Pittsburgh out of the Atlantic Division and into the Western Conference to be with Columbus, St. Louis, Detroit, and Chicago.

Nashville belongs more with the South Eastern teams, culturally and otherwise. Some people might disagree with my move of Pittsburgh but the Pens are geographically close to Columbus and I think a good rivalry could develop between them.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Nov 13, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'm down with this..

We’d dominate that division probably every year. I just hope it wouldn’t make us soft.

by DonBorvio on Nov 14, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions

12-4-2

Judging by that, it seems like they would be great in that division, so long as that division was packed with the weakling teams.
But put Nashville against the East playoff teams last year, they had two skater versus skater wins in 9 tries, with 3 shootout wins.
It seems like Nash would be middle of the ladder in the East, just like they are in the West. We can beat the teams we are supposed to beat (usually), but struggle to defeat the good teams. Which is whey we had home ice twice a while back: we took advantage of beating Stl, Chicago, and Columbus (still do, on the last one) when they were easy points.
Come playoff time, though, there is no hiding from the fact we have to beat a decent team four out of seven tries. And, to date, we haven’t shown that ability.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 14, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

Logical, but disastrous

We need to be in the same division as at Least one of Chicago and Detroit. These teams have alot of fans (StL too) that travel well, and we still need the visitors support at the gate. Last night there it was a sellout, thanks largely to the Chitown fans who traveled.
Personally, I think Atlanta, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa in the same division as us, would only lead to 12 home games that draw poorly. With the 3 NHL Norris holdovers, we are guaranteed of solid draws for the foreseeable future for at least 9 home games, and the ’playoff’’ atmosphere that comes with a bipartisan crowd.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 14, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Tiebreaker is a small step

in the right direction.

We are still the only pro league of the ‘big four’ that awards a point for an overtime loss.
And shootouts still count in the standings (outside the tiebreak) as 2 points, as much as a real hockey win.
If the OT loser point and the SKILLZ competition point aren’t good enough for to decide things in the NHL playoffs (and it clearly is not), why have it in the regular season? The shootout is good for the fans, but it shouldn’t artificially boost certain teams (coyotes last year) artificially.

Let’s look as the Preds this year: 3 times beaten in OT (and 3 loser points, and two skillz competition wins (and 2 hockey ties treated as wins). 5 extra points that wouldn’t have been there, 20 years ago. It may get us to the playoffs and/or improve our seeding, so its to our benefit, this year. But it has screwed other teams in the past.

If they treated real wins differently than shootout wins, and didn’t reward OT losses with a point, the standings would be more reflective of the teams’ quality.

Or, at least, do the 3-2-1 system by other leagues and systems.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 14, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

I’m sure the Caps and Pens will make the playoffs this year. In spite of their two bad losses, Tampa is a much improved team and may have a decent shot at the playoffs.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Nov 13, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

Likely

But its too early to tell. Nashville is out of the top 8 right now,
but should be there in the end, once they play like we know they can.

Tampa is a better team, but how long can they cope without Vinny and Gagne?
How long will Ellis maintain this recent play? And, can Stamkos and St. Louis continue to be arguably the top two offensive players in the League?
The other divisions had more playoff entries last year, PHI, PITTS, and NJ in the Atlantic, with the NYR losing out on a last game Shootout (ugh),
and Boston, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Montreal in the NE. I know Buff and NJ are off to horrible starts, but if/when they pick it up, they both have the ability (and goalkeeping) to go on a run to at least negate their poor starts.
the Caps (based on your name, I guess you are glad for it) should still be considered the class of the division, and one of the ‘surefire’ playoff teams in the league, so long as their goaltending is competent. It looks like that is the case.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 14, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

I think that the difference in the conferences is that there’s a wider gap between the competitive teams at the top and the also-rans and no-chances than there is in the West.

I also think that the top competitors in the West are better-built for playoff hockey with defensive style and often tougher systems that take advantage of the difference in the way penalties are called in the postseason. But that’s off-topic.

The reason may be as simple as East coast bias economics. Teams in the East get a lot more coverage, so it’s easier to inflate player values. I’m not saying that Crosby and Malkin aren’t worth $8.7M each, but when you compare that to the Sedin twins in Vancouver, who get $6.1M against the cap each, you’re left with two pairs that put up similar points, except Vancouver also has an extra $5.2M worth of cap space, which would buy them Jeff Carter to complete that line. I’d take Sedin-Sedin-Carter over Crosby-Malkin-Nobody any day. I don’t know if I want to say Western players are underpaid or Eastern guys are overpaid, but there are many differences like that which add up.

by J.J. from Kansas on Nov 15, 2010 9:30 AM EST reply actions

True

The top teams in the East could easily skate with the top teams in the West.
Even the middle to lower playoff teams.
The #7 and 8 seeds in the east last year were Philly and Montreal, and we know what they did.
The comparable seeds in the West, the Preds and Avs, aren’t built for post-season success, and I am not sure either has won a playoff round post-lockout.

I think a more relevant calculation would be to track (as I noted above) how the top teams do against the top teams. Specifially with Nashville, The Preds are 12-4-2 against the East as a whole, which implies dominance, but they struggled against the good teams.
even if they were in the East, and had to play Atl and such and rack up the points,
they would still pace behind the good teams and likely would be a lower playoff team in the East as well.

by DontfeedtheBelak on Nov 15, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions