Can the Nashville Predators' tradition of faceoff specialists help the power play?

by Dirk Hoag on Nov 3, 2010 12:21 PM EDT in Statistical Analysis

One of the hallmarks of Nashville Predators teams in recent years has been the presence of some of the game's best faceoff specialists, going back through Scott Nichol, Radek Bonk, Yanic Perrault, and Mike Sillinger. It's an area of hockey at which a low-budget team can reasonably aim to excel, as opposed to snagging a 50-goal scorer on the open market, and the latest in this line of faceoff studs is veteran plugger Jerred Smithson.

In his article this morning on the Preds' faceoff performance so far, David Boclair gave us this quote from Barry Trotz:

"People don't put enough value in the faceoffs," Trotz said. "Everything offensively starts with the faceoff. Everything defensively starts with the faceoff. If you don't win the faceoff, you're defending.

Particularly when it comes to faceoffs in either end of the ice, that's definitely true. Neutral zone draws don't influence shots for & against anywhere near as much as others. Lose a faceoff in your own end at even strength, and it leads to the equivalent of a 10-15 second power play for your opponent. But how does this insight affect our view of the Preds?

Follow after the jump for a detailed look at how the main men on the faceoff dot are performing for Nashville...

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First, let's take a team-wide view broken down by the zone in which the faceoff occurs, and the situation (power play, even strength, shorthanded). Recall that in general, teams on the power play win 55% of draws, so shorthanded teams win 45%:

Nashville Predators team faceoff totals as of 10/31/2010

	Offensive			Neutral			Defensive			Total
PP	27	-	51	7	-	13	2	-	3	36	-	67
	52.9%			53.8%			66.7%			53.7%
EV	68	-	136	70	-	149	89	-	159	227	-	444
	50.0%			47.0%			56.0%			51.1%
SH	2	-	3	5	-	12	26	-	60	33	-	75
	66.7%			41.7%			43.3%			44.0%
Total	97	-	190	82	-	174	117	-	222	296	-	586
	51.1%			47.1%			52.7%			50.5%

Now in general, that's not too bad; the overall PP and SH numbers are within one faceoff win of league averages, and the even-strength results are slightly above norm, but not significantly so. The question, however, is whether the Preds might be able to improve on these numbers and try to establish some sort of advantage when it comes to faceoffs. For that question, let's look at some of the individuals involved (in order of FO's taken):

Cal O`Reilly

#16 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 187

Born: Sep 30, 1986

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Cal O`Reilly	10	1	6	7	0	0	0	0	1		11

	Offensive			Neutral			Defensive			Total
PP	15	-	27	3	-	6	1	-	1	19	-	34
	55.6%			50.0%			100.0%			55.9%
EV	27	-	44	13	-	38	20	-	37	60	-	119
	61.4%			34.2%			54.1%			50.4%
SH	0	-	0	0	-	1	1	-	2	1	-	3
	0.0%			0.0%			50.0%			33.3%
Total	42	-	71	16	-	45	22	-	40	80	-	156
	59.2%			35.6%			55.0%			51.3%

Solid numbers here from Cal, who has basically received a battlefield promotion into the top offensive center's role. Hidden in here are stronger results in both the offensive & defensive zones as opposed to center ice.

Jerred Smithson

#25 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-3

Weight: 206

Born: Feb 04, 1979

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Jerred Smithson	10	0	1	1	-1	2	0	0	0		13

	Offensive			Neutral			Defensive			Total
PP	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-	0
	0.0%			0.0%			0.0%			0.0%
EV	8	-	12	15	-	22	31	-	47	54	-	81
	66.7%			68.2%			66.0%			66.7%
SH	1	-	1	2	-	3	12	-	24	15	-	28
	100.0%			66.7%			50.0%			53.6%
Total	9	-	13	17	-	25	43	-	71	69	-	109
	69.2%			68.0%			60.6%			63.3%

As noted this morning, Smitty is the maestro of the faceoff dot for the Predators, and currently stands 3rd on the NHL's conventional list of faceoff leaders at 63.3%, even without taking a single power play draw.

David Legwand

#11 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 204

Born: Aug 17, 1980

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - David Legwand	10	2	3	5	-2	8	0	0	0		20

	Offensive			Neutral			Defensive			Total
PP	2	-	5	3	-	3	0	-	0	5	-	8
	40.0%			100.0%			0.0%			62.5%
EV	4	-	16	17	-	39	9	-	24	30	-	79
	25.0%			43.6%			37.5%			38.0%
SH	1	-	1	0	-	2	2	-	11	3	-	14
	100.0%			0.0%			18.2%			21.4%
Total	7	-	22	20	-	44	11	-	35	38	-	101
	31.8%			45.5%			31.4%			37.6%

Yikes, this isn't good no matter how you slice it.

Colin Wilson

#33 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 214

Born: Oct 20, 1989

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Colin Wilson	10	2	3	5	5	0	0	0	1		15

	Offensive			Neutral			Defensive			Total
PP	2	-	4	0	-	1	0	-	1	2	-	6
	50.0%			0.0%			0.0%			33.3%
EV	9	-	26	11	-	18	5	-	9	25	-	53
	34.6%			61.1%			55.6%			47.2%
SH	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-	0
	0.0%			0.0%			0.0%			0.0%
Total	11	-	30	11	-	19	5	-	10	27	-	59
	36.7%			57.9%			50.0%			45.8%

With only 59 faceoffs taken, it's perhaps a little early to get concerned, but the early results aren't good for Colin, either.

A Smithsonian recommendation

So here's my question - why is it that coaches place such strong emphasis on the defensive side of winning faceoffs, putting their best guys out there for defensive-zone and shorthanded draws, but they don't place a similar weight on the power play? Look at Smithson's results, and you'll see not a single PP faceoff, and almost a 4-to-1 ratio of defensive to offensive zone draws.

Especially during the 2nd period when the offensive zone is closer to the team's bench, it would seem to make sense to put a guy like Smithson out there to take a PP faceoff and help get the Preds on the attack, then switch off quickly for an offensive specialist. I would suggest that those 10-15 seconds of advantage from the marginal faceoff wins that Smitty could provide are worth far more than any relative lack of offensive skill that he would provide until coming off for a player like Steve Sullivan or Colin Wilson.

For a team that has struggled in recent years to get its power play rolling, perhaps it's time to consider some new ideas, and putting your least offensively-productive forward on the PP would certainly qualify.

UPDATE: Now that Marcel Goc has returned from injury, he'd make another fine option as well to increase Nashville's power play faceoff work, and he provides a little more offensive punch, too.

The Preds don't play at home again until Saturday, November 13 vs. the Chicago Blackhawks, but you can plan ahead and use the OtF discount to save money on Nashville Predators tickets for this, or any other home game. Heck, you can even get an early start on your holiday gift-shopping and get some Preds tickets for stocking-stuffers!

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Comments

Faceoffs during the penalty kill were a big problem last year too, which is why I think the PK was so bad.

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Nov 3, 2010 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

Another recommendation

Don’t try to figure out what’s going on in Trotz’s mind. His thought processes are illogical so since you say Smithson might be a boost to the PP that means it cannot be what he’s thinking. I’ve thought about 1) why not carry the puck into the offensive zone instead of playing dump and chase; 2) why not keep the lines that you play during the game together on the PP instead of making jumbalaya lines; or 3) Why not keep the most offensively talented guys on the ice during the PP instead of putting Tootoo and Ward out there? Note: I’m not bashing either of them but they’re NOT top 6 offensive talent on the Preds…and I’m not talking about during injuries…this ALWAYS goes on.

So, since you said this, it won’t happen :)

BTW, it was an interesting article and a good read and certainly food for thought!

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Nov 3, 2010 1:40 PM EDT reply actions

Hmmm...

I’ll agree that it often seems to make obvious sense to do certain things, and sometimes (often) Trotz repeatedly refuses to do these things; but the fact remains that he gets brilliant, unparalleled results from what he works with. The results speak for the process, and that’s good enough for me.

In a basic sense, it seems to me that Trotz seems to avoid doing one specific thing because it is the best way to do that one specific thing (which could result, for example, in an excellent PP, but at the cost of tiring the top lines out and causing poor 5 on 5 play). Instead, he seems to do each specific thing in the way that best fits into his plan, and does the most good overall. Nashville’s record (especially in one-goal games, where both teams show up to play at similar levels and you might expect the effect of good vs. poor coaching to be the most noticeable) says Trotz is pretty brilliant.

Also, does anyone else get the sense that Trotz’s whole “I am taking charge of the PP personally, and we’re going to score the **** out of some goals” was just to make fans the happy, (I seem to remember a poll showing ~70% or something of Preds fans were most worried about the PP after last season, vs. other issues) while the emphasis seems to remain, perhaps on the PK somewhat, but mostly on even-strength play and not taking penalties?

by Smashvillain on Nov 3, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoever is in charge of the PP is not doing a very good job. But I almost don't even bother bringing it up because it just doesn't change. I did this time cause it's still early in the season :)

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Nov 3, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

And you can add 4) Why play Sully on the point during the power play?

by Predaceous on Nov 3, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

It'd be nice to finally get Ryan Ellis up here to QB the PP.

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Nov 3, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

last season i , thankfully wrongly, predicted we would miss the playoffs for this precise reason. losing nichol, fiddler, bonk and perrault over a couple seasons made me very weary of chasing teams on the pk and in general. that part was true, but we overcame that by being a very ggod 5v5 team. so maybe , once healthy at center, smithers needs to be back w/ leggy and wardo on the shut down line. i dont see how a coach could value our shutdown line and winning faceoffs, as trotz does, and keep letting leggy take shutdown line faceoffs.

by predswilrule on Nov 3, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions