Inside the Nashville Predators attendance surge

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 3, 2010 1:57 PM EST in Sports Business

Nashville Predators fans and bloggers have been trumpeting the team's announced attendance figures so far this season (up almost 3,000 per game), but does that truly mean that an upsurge in the demand for hockey is occurring here?

I have been slow to start waving the pom-poms, because in the back of my mind I've been concerned that a healthy portion of the new faces at Bridgestone Arena were likely lured in with discounted or free tickets, and not really contributing much to the team's bottom line. New CEO Jeff Cogen has been quite vocal about pulling out all the stops to get first-timers into the building in order to get them hooked on hockey, so it's only natural to surmise that this strategy is getting lots of newbies in the door on the cheap.

Follow after the jump as we look at some of the more detailed figures, and see just how "real" this surge truly is...

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When Josh Cooper of The Tennessean reported yesterday that the average paid attendance figure was 15,657, Preds fans were thrilled, because one of the realities of the hockey market here is that football dominates the scene from October to December. During these early months the Preds have often seen some meager crowds, only to draw much better after New Year's Day, thanks to the absence of football, and of course the drive to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Josh's report let us know at least that "comps" weren't actually a big factor here. But what about discounts?

The table below shows attendance data (as obtained from the Metro Sports Authority) from the first 9 home games this year as compared to the first 9 homes games from the last two:

Season	Avg. Total	Avg. Paid	Avg. Comps	Sales/Seat
2008-09	13,833	12,918	915	$44.11
2009-10	13,645	13,131	514	$36.14
2010-11	16,427	15,657	770	$36.85

The big news here is that year-over-year, not only is paid attendance per game up more than 19%, but the Predators are actually getting 1.9% more per seat in ticket sales (after tax and user fees). Overall ticket sales revenue for these first 9 games, then, are up more than 21% compared to last year.

Wow. Gimme those pom-poms!

As I wrote earlier this year, part of the reason the Preds were able to maintain solid attendance figures last season was due to a combination of discounting and/or shift in ticket sales (more upper bowl, less lower bowl). Given the economic turmoil that the nation is only starting to recover from, this isn't surprising news, but it explains why the Sales/Seat figure dropped so much from 2008-9 to 2009-10.

As to the road ahead? It appears that the Predators' multi-faceted marketing approach, which has greatly increased the team's visibility across just about every mass-communication medium you can think of, is paying off. The goal, of course, is to get to consistent sellouts, but with four already through 9 home games, the Preds have made remarkable progress already this season.

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Comments

Interesting stuff. I’d like to think that Nashville and its environs have finally realized that there’s a quality hockey franchise in town. Or at least that Jordin Tootoo is pretty entertaining (funny that I’d be the one saying that, but he is).

Does he call it Luongo underwear?

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Dec 3, 2010 2:08 PM EST reply actions

bravo, Jeff Cogen

by Chris Burton on Dec 3, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions

What you're missing

I knew you’d be too humble to say it, so I’ll say it for you:

Everyone at OtF, the Cellblock, Paul and Brandon, Jim, Buddy, and so on down the line…YOU guys have done an incredible job greasing the gears to make Cogen’s job easier. Blogs are an important part of political and issue campaigns—bloggers wind up carrying a lot of water, and this recent trend is no exception.

So, kudos to you and all the other Preds bloggers for all the work you all do.

by stackiii on Dec 3, 2010 2:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

On the other hand, we wouldn’t be able to have any impact at all without you, the reader, so thanks to you as well.

by Chris Burton on Dec 3, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Man

They never give us any credit for anything do they……… GO PREDS!

by SinBinPred on Dec 3, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

wow, good news on the progress.

Nucks Misconduct co-writer, ambassador and peacekeeper. Also on Twitter.
Well, we could try cryogenically freezing Sami Salo while he's healthy, and bring him out in time for the playoffs, but he'd find a way to get a 3rd-degree burn in the freezing process....

by missy on Dec 3, 2010 3:49 PM EST reply actions

Awesome.

All they need to do now is get new jerseys.

Negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by birky on Dec 3, 2010 3:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I just wish we could get all the games televised on a channel that most people can access. You can’t grow the sport is people can’t see it on tv to know what they are missing by not being there. Of course, I’m unable to attend games, but I can support the team by buying stuff! lol And I get really ANNOYED when the games are not on FOXTN nor on CIce. So far this season, there have been five games not shown at all. NOT the way to grow a sport.

"I am you, you are me, and we are all together" Beatles

by amyinsparta on Dec 3, 2010 6:36 PM EST reply actions

Comp notes

I’m doing some math in my head here, but comps, per those figures are a little north of 700, about where they were last season, up maybe 5 percent. In his CP interview, Cogen said they’d be up more like 10 percent, so he’s actually drawing the crowds without giving away nearly as many tix as he thought he’d have to.

by JRLind on Dec 4, 2010 8:51 AM EST reply actions

I’m guessing that math didn’t get you on Jeopardy. 514 → 770 is almost a 50% jump. Either way, it’s a lot less than the 1,500 or so that used to be given away a few years ago.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Preds (be sure to check out my discount offer on Nashville Predators tickets). Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker, or join our legions on Facebook at Facebook.com/OnTheForecheck.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 4, 2010 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

or were you comparing this year’s 9-game figure to season totals from last year? If so, my bad.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 4, 2010 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

Compare the PAID numbers so far this season to the TOTAL numbers for the past 6 seasons or so. Our average paid attendance is higher that our comp filled figures heading in and coming out of the lockout. That’s the good news.

The troubling thing is the average price. The team is discounting the hell out of tickets to get them sold. Where I see a problem here is that when the team starts easing back on the number of discounts we may see a drop in paid attendance … similar to the roll back on prices coming out of the lockout and the perceived jump in prices a couple years later. If the expectations of fans are now set on current, heavily discounted pricing it is going to take some skillful maneuvering to eventually sell more tickets at full face value.

One factor that isn’t covered in the reporting of the jump in attendance, both paid and total, is the impact of the shift in revenue split for concessions as part of the revised lease agreement. The team now gets a bigger share of the money generated on the concourse than it did during the Liepold era. Without seeing all of the numbers there is no way for us on the outside to know how much this offsets the difference from discounting ticket prices.

by 101st on Dec 4, 2010 9:57 AM EST reply actions

I think what they need to get is consistently large crowds before they can look at raising prices. It’s all about scarcity.

They’re certainly not anywhere near “Happily Ever After” yet, but a 21% boost year-over-year is very positive news considering how slowly the economic recovery is going.

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 4, 2010 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

It might be a couple years before the discounts can be eased back, but by then we’re going to have built a fanbase that is expecting the steep discounts. The average face value ticket is somewhere in the mid to upper $40s … they’re selling on average in the upper $30s. Ticket revenue is up just over $7k per game over two seasons ago with almost 3k more paying butts in the seats. A positive move for the team for sure, but there are still some details in there to temper my joy.

It will be interesting to see how well the numbers hold up when the team has a more concentrated home schedule. Nine home games in two months is a lot easier for the casual fan to afford than five in two weeks.

by 101st on Dec 4, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I will say this...

…personally I’m on pace to go to a LOT more games this year than last. I’ve been trying to take advantage of college night deals (which, incidentally, they added tonight’s and next Saturday’s game to the ‘college’ night lineup – meaning $25 lower bowl/$10 upper bowl) and the family four pack. To be able to get 4 seats, and good seats, for around $100 is amazing.

Taking the wife tonight.

Taking all three kids next week.

I bought some Bridgestone tires, even.

I’m doing my part.

by rusherman on Dec 4, 2010 10:31 AM EST reply actions 1 recs