On the Forecheck: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Strength of schedule could make or break NHL teams' playoff hopes

In the chase for the playoffs, some NHL teams have a harder road to travel than others, and as we flip the calendar over to February, the Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames will face the stiffest opposition during the rest of the regular season. Over in the Eastern Conference, the rich are likely to get richer as the current division leaders, Washington, New Jersey, and Buffalo, all face relatively easy remaining schedules.

Follow after the jump for the complete breakdown...

Star-divide

The following table shows the remaining games for each NHL team starting with tonight, February 1, along with the average Points Percentage and Goals For/Against ratio in 5-on-5 play for their opponents, as an indicator of schedule strength. We also have the number of times that each team has to play games on consecutive nights, using the NHL Super Schedule which I published last summer. Home and road totals are included last.

For the sake of context, the average NHL team has a .559 Points Percentage (thanks to the OTL point, most teams are above .500), which translates to a 91-point season across 82 games. When teams play after having played the night before (the 2nd half of a Back-To-Back Set), their Points Percentage typically dips significantly. Last season, such teams had a .500 Pts %, as opposed to .557 overall.

Interestingly, the Dallas Stars will face the toughest opposition, but have the fewest Back-To-Backs remaining. Obviously, the presence of Western Conference teams at the top of this list is due to them having to mostly play each other - the West is dominating the East this season, with an average Pts % of .573 to .545 (and yet the East has more Overtime Losses, which makes even that comparison look closer than it should be).

 Team Games Average Opp Pt % Avg Opp 5 on 5 GF/GA Back-To-Back Sets Home Road
 Dallas Stars 27 .602 1.08 2 14 13
 Columbus Blue Jackets 25 .598 1.08 3 15 10
 St. Louis Blues 27 .583 1.04 7 13 14
 Calgary Flames 27 .581 1.06 3 13 14
 Colorado Avalanche 28 .572 1.04 6 16 12
 Carolina Hurricanes 28 .572 1.03 5 13 15
 Nashville Predators 28 .572 1.02 5 15 13
 Detroit Red Wings 27 .572 1.04 4 14 13
 Vancouver Canucks 28 .570 1.00 6 10 18
 New York Rangers 26 .569 1.03 4 12 14
 Phoenix Coyotes 26 .569 1.05 6 10 16
 Edmonton Oilers 29 .564 1.01 6 12 17
 Florida Panthers 27 .560 1.02 6 15 12
 New York Islanders 26 .556 1.00 6 15 11
 Atlanta Thrashers 28 .556 1.04 7 16 12
 Boston Bruins 29 .556 1.03 5 12 17
 Tampa Bay Lightning 28 .555 1.04 5 15 13
 Chicago Blackhawks 27 .555 0.99 7 14 13
 Anaheim Ducks 27 .555 1.01 6 15 12
 Minnesota Wild 27 .555 1.03 4 15 12
 San Jose Sharks 27 .554 1.01 4 11 16
 Pittsburgh Penguins 26 .553 1.01 7 14 12
 Los Angeles Kings 27 .550 0.99 3 16 11
 Toronto Maple Leafs 26 .549 0.96 5 15 11
 Montreal Canadiens 26 .545 1.01 5 14 12
 Philadelphia Flyers 29 .539 0.96 6 12 17
 Ottawa Senators 26 .537 1.03 4 10 16
 Buffalo Sabres 29 .537 0.96 7 13 16
 Washington Capitals 27 .534 0.95 5 14 13
 New Jersey Devils 28 .520 0.97 7 14 14

This strength-of-schedule could have a net impact of a 2-4 points or so down the stretch (for example: 27 games, 2 points per game available, and a difference of .050 = 2.7 total points). Given the incredibly tight competition in the Eastern Conference, where positions 6-12 are separated by a mere two points, that's definitely enough to make or break a few teams' playoff hopes.

How will this impact your favorite team?

3 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Wow

When I first saw this list I thought you listed the Western and Eastern Conference separately.

great work.

The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 1, 2010 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

Good thing I hate the Rangers.
They are slipping fast and it brings me joy to know their road tougher than most.
Thanks for the research

by Prometheus74 on Feb 1, 2010 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

Why not list the average winning percentages of the opponents remaining on the schedule? That stat changes this list significantly. Just listing one offensive category, no defensive stats and no winning percentage doesn’t accurately convey the difficulty of the remaining schedules. The Preds were said to have one of the easiest schedules in the second half. That’s not quite what this chart says.

by Predaceous on Feb 1, 2010 3:41 PM EST reply actions  

The Avg Opp 5-on-5 GF/GA measures the balance of both offense and defense.

Give me a few minutes and I’ll take a look at Winning Percentage instead of Points Percentage to see if it makes a significant difference (or do you already know that it does?).

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 1, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

FYI, I ran the numbers using Winning Percentage rather than Points Percentage and it didn’t change things much. Top 4 teams stayed exactly the same, Bottom 6 are the same teams although Ottawa moves from 4th-easiest to 2nd.

The Preds slip down one spot using that measure.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 1, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Back-To-Back Sets

Lots of Back to Back games still ahead for most teams. You can blame the Olympics. Thats what happens when you get an 18 game break. Teams are going to have to be in shape to make a late season run, after an 18 game rest.

by RongCapsFan on Feb 1, 2010 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

sorry

I ment to say 18 day rest

by RongCapsFan on Feb 1, 2010 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

Judging by the relatively "easier" strength of schedule

For the first time ever, I’ll be looking forward to that annual Maple Leafs run to 10th place in the East this season. We need this, Boston.

Supporter of the Sergei Berezin "Give and Go" - You give me puck, then you go to hell

by bkblades on Feb 2, 2010 2:13 AM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Nashville Predators.
Start posting about the Predators »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Bradtoylaser_small
NHL 11 Team Play (PS3)
Small
Realignment...Gone Mental!
Reggiemiller_small
Do Predators fans have realistic hopes that the team can compete for the Stanley Cup?
Predators_licenseplate_small
The Biggest Battle to Keep An Eye on at Training Camp
Picture-7100_small
The Road Less Traveled, or Highway to the Comfort Zone?
Small
A Guide to Predators Ticket Sales
Small
Room For Improvement
74395_small
The Chairman of the Predators ....
Hockey_puck_small
Fifty years of hockey in Nashville?  Really?
Small
Cheap shot by Puck daddy

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

On the Forecheck's online store

About Me

Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.

Get OTF on your Kindle!

Me_medium_medium

Got a question or a suggestion? Feel free to email the.forechecker@gmail.com.

Follow Forechecker on Twitter

Named by Sports Media Challenge as a Top 10 NHL Blog

SBNation.com Recent Stories

PHILADELPHIA - MAY 16:  A fan of the Philadelphia Flyers holds up a sign reading "Next Goalie" behind goalie Carey Price #32 of the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Wachovia Center on May 16, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Habs Finally Lock Up Carey Price, Sign Goalie To Two-Year Deal

National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman answers questions during a pre-game media availability before the Pittsburgh Penguins season opener against the New York Rangers in a NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) +25 updates

Ultimatum? NHL Reportedly Threatens To Toss Out Kovalchuk, Luongo Deals Without NHLPA Concessions

Photo +1 updates

Report: Donald Fehr Hands NHLPA List Of Conditions On Becoming Union Leader

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Forechecker_35_small Dirk Hoag

Muckers

Predsalternate_small Chris Burton

Grinders

Smashville2_small Aditya T (smashville)

Predators_licenseplate_small SLake

Adslogo_small AdmiralsShortShifts

Picture-7100_small Anthony Neal