Strength of schedule could make or break NHL teams' playoff hopes

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 1, 2010 12:38 PM EST in Statistical Analysis Comment 8 comments

In the chase for the playoffs, some NHL teams have a harder road to travel than others, and as we flip the calendar over to February, the Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames will face the stiffest opposition during the rest of the regular season. Over in the Eastern Conference, the rich are likely to get richer as the current division leaders, Washington, New Jersey, and Buffalo, all face relatively easy remaining schedules.

Follow after the jump for the complete breakdown...

The following table shows the remaining games for each NHL team starting with tonight, February 1, along with the average Points Percentage and Goals For/Against ratio in 5-on-5 play for their opponents, as an indicator of schedule strength. We also have the number of times that each team has to play games on consecutive nights, using the NHL Super Schedule which I published last summer. Home and road totals are included last.

For the sake of context, the average NHL team has a .559 Points Percentage (thanks to the OTL point, most teams are above .500), which translates to a 91-point season across 82 games. When teams play after having played the night before (the 2nd half of a Back-To-Back Set), their Points Percentage typically dips significantly. Last season, such teams had a .500 Pts %, as opposed to .557 overall.

Interestingly, the Dallas Stars will face the toughest opposition, but have the fewest Back-To-Backs remaining. Obviously, the presence of Western Conference teams at the top of this list is due to them having to mostly play each other - the West is dominating the East this season, with an average Pts % of .573 to .545 (and yet the East has more Overtime Losses, which makes even that comparison look closer than it should be).

Team	Games	Average Opp Pt %	Avg Opp 5 on 5 GF/GA	Back-To-Back Sets	Home	Road
Dallas Stars	27	.602	1.08	2	14	13
Columbus Blue Jackets	25	.598	1.08	3	15	10
St. Louis Blues	27	.583	1.04	7	13	14
Calgary Flames	27	.581	1.06	3	13	14
Colorado Avalanche	28	.572	1.04	6	16	12
Carolina Hurricanes	28	.572	1.03	5	13	15
Nashville Predators	28	.572	1.02	5	15	13
Detroit Red Wings	27	.572	1.04	4	14	13
Vancouver Canucks	28	.570	1.00	6	10	18
New York Rangers	26	.569	1.03	4	12	14
Phoenix Coyotes	26	.569	1.05	6	10	16
Edmonton Oilers	29	.564	1.01	6	12	17
Florida Panthers	27	.560	1.02	6	15	12
New York Islanders	26	.556	1.00	6	15	11
Atlanta Thrashers	28	.556	1.04	7	16	12
Boston Bruins	29	.556	1.03	5	12	17
Tampa Bay Lightning	28	.555	1.04	5	15	13
Chicago Blackhawks	27	.555	0.99	7	14	13
Anaheim Ducks	27	.555	1.01	6	15	12
Minnesota Wild	27	.555	1.03	4	15	12
San Jose Sharks	27	.554	1.01	4	11	16
Pittsburgh Penguins	26	.553	1.01	7	14	12
Los Angeles Kings	27	.550	0.99	3	16	11
Toronto Maple Leafs	26	.549	0.96	5	15	11
Montreal Canadiens	26	.545	1.01	5	14	12
Philadelphia Flyers	29	.539	0.96	6	12	17
Ottawa Senators	26	.537	1.03	4	10	16
Buffalo Sabres	29	.537	0.96	7	13	16
Washington Capitals	27	.534	0.95	5	14	13
New Jersey Devils	28	.520	0.97	7	14	14

This strength-of-schedule could have a net impact of a 2-4 points or so down the stretch (for example: 27 games, 2 points per game available, and a difference of .050 = 2.7 total points). Given the incredibly tight competition in the Eastern Conference, where positions 6-12 are separated by a mere two points, that's definitely enough to make or break a few teams' playoff hopes.

How will this impact your favorite team?

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Comments

Wow

When I first saw this list I thought you listed the Western and Eastern Conference separately.

great work.

The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Feb 1, 2010 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good thing I hate the Rangers.
They are slipping fast and it brings me joy to know their road tougher than most.
Thanks for the research

by Prometheus74 on Feb 1, 2010 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why not list the average winning percentages of the opponents remaining on the schedule? That stat changes this list significantly. Just listing one offensive category, no defensive stats and no winning percentage doesn’t accurately convey the difficulty of the remaining schedules. The Preds were said to have one of the easiest schedules in the second half. That’s not quite what this chart says.

by Predaceous on Feb 1, 2010 3:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Avg Opp 5-on-5 GF/GA measures the balance of both offense and defense.

Give me a few minutes and I’ll take a look at Winning Percentage instead of Points Percentage to see if it makes a significant difference (or do you already know that it does?).

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 1, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FYI, I ran the numbers using Winning Percentage rather than Points Percentage and it didn’t change things much. Top 4 teams stayed exactly the same, Bottom 6 are the same teams although Ottawa moves from 4th-easiest to 2nd.

The Preds slip down one spot using that measure.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Feb 1, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs