The numbers say NHL MVP is Ovechkin's to lose
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 16, 2010 4:55 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
26 comments
While the chase for the playoffs sits at the forefront of most hockey fans' minds these days, it's also a good time to look ahead at likely winners for some of the major individual awards for this NHL season.
The Hart Trophy is awarded each year to "the player judged to be the most valuable to his team". This lends itself quite neatly to statistical analysis, as we can get a good handle on which players have, in total, boosted their team's Goals For and held down their Goals Against over the course of a season. Follow me after the jump for a look at your MVP candidates...
The idea here is to leverage the Rating statistics from Behind the Net, which sums up the net influence on Goals For & Against per 60 minutes of play, and convert those into counting stats based on the cumulative ice time and games played for each individual. For instance, Alex Ovechkin's presence in 5-on-5 action has resulted in a net of +35.7 goals for Washington, compared to how the Capitals fare when he is on the bench. His influence on the power play is almost as large (+31), and he is a pretty average PK man.
The Penalty +/- Impact reflects the influence on Goals For & Against from a player drawing or committing penalties, and thus creating PP or PK situations for his team. Using a previous estimate by Alan Ryder, each power play is worth 0.153 goals, reflecting the increased likelihood that your team is going to score (with a PK costing the same amount).
Sum up the 5-on-5, PP, PK and Penalty +/- columns, and you get a Total Impact that each player has had on Goals For & Against over the course of the season. Most MVP discussions focus solely on offensive contributions, and ignore the defensive side of the game.
Remember - these measures reflect the influence of a given player on the performance of his team. They are not meant to be used a direct comparison of players on different teams to say "who is better". It is, rather, "who is more valuable to his team". Yes, this analysis does leave goaltenders out of the equation, but we can argue over the Vezina another day.
Below the table I have a few comments about some of the individual players:
| Player | Pos | Team | 5-on-5 Impact | PP Impact | PK Impact | Penalty +/- Impact | Total |
| Alex Ovechkin | LW | WSH | 35.7 | 31.0 | -0.6 | 1.2 | 67.3 |
| Nicklas Lidstrom | D | DET | 26.4 | 11.9 | 16.3 | -0.2 | 54.4 |
| Zach Parise | LW | N.J | 38.8 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 53.9 |
| Matt Carle | D | PHI | 28.9 | 6.1 | 7.9 | -0.3 | 42.5 |
| Chris Pronger | D | PHI | 22.4 | 19.9 | 0.9 | -1.5 | 41.7 |
| Jonathan Toews | C | CHI | 9.9 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 1.2 | 40.5 |
| Nik Antropov | LW | ATL | 29.7 | 10.3 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 39.8 |
| Marian Gaborik | LW | NYR | 28.8 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 |
| Dustin Penner | LW | EDM | 29.8 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 39.0 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | C | WSH | 19.3 | 17.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 37.6 |
| Travis Zajac | C | N.J | 29.8 | 9.4 | -2.0 | -0.2 | 36.9 |
| Henrik Sedin | C | VAN | 38.5 | -7.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 35.7 |
| Brian Rafalski | D | DET | 24.9 | 7.2 | 4.2 | -0.8 | 35.6 |
| Drew Doughty | D | L.A | 16.3 | 15.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 35.0 |
| Daniel Sedin | LW | VAN | 36.9 | -2.5 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 33.7 |
Note: PP Impact reflects 5-on-4 play only, PK Impact reflects 4-on-5 only. Other odd-man situations aren't common enough to change these standings significantly.
His 5-on-5 Impact ranks among four elite players who are well ahead of the rest of the league, while his power play work is in a class by itself (his +31 PP Impact is followed distantly by Sergei Gonchar at +22.6). Even his two-game suspension this week shouldn't slow down his march to a repeat performance as Hart Trophy winner.
Given all the issues Detroit has had to struggle through this season, the Red Wings have had to rely on Lidstrom perhaps more than they ever have. His penalty killing work is particularly telling. When he's on the ice, the Red Wings give up 3.45 goals per 60 minutes, a rate that is better than the top overall PK teams in the league. When he's on the bench, the Wings give up 8.36 goals per 60 minutes, which would rank among the worst.
Parise's 5-on-5 results are tops in the league, and he's also boosted by his ability to draw penalties, while not taking many himself.
Matt Carle & Chris Pronger: Since this defensive duo often plays together in Philadelphia, their results can be difficult to separate from each other, although Pronger stands out as the #2 defenseman in PP impact.
Henrik & Daniel Sedin: Somewhat surprisingly, the Canucks score about 2 more goals per 60 minutes of power play time when the Sedins aren't on the ice. At even strength, however, they are among the most dominant players in the game this season.
2 recs |
26 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
This is great work, but I’m curious as to why one of the poll options is a guy that didn’t even make his name onto that chart.
Will Zach Parise ever get the credit he’s due? Guy is a stud.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 5:11 PM EDT reply actions
I’m going to add a few poll options real quick… but you know you just can’t have a debate about Ovechkin without including the inevitable Crosby comparison!
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
No no no. That’s the last thing I want. It’s just curious that his numbers aren’t even up for review and yet he’s an option. At least put them up so we can see where he stacks up. It’s like you included him just on his name.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I may be in the minority, but I don’t think Ovechkin and Crosby are comparable players. They may both be MVP candidates (emphasize maybe) but I don’t like the incessant comparisons.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
Now Cycling like the Sedins
by Chris Burton on Mar 16, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see how anyone could watch them play and not conclude that they are entirely different players. All they have in common is that they both have ridiculous amounts of skill and can dominate any given game.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Zach Parise ever get the credit he’s due? Guy is a stud.
not as long as SB Nation continues to use that photo…
Speaking of which, Ovi in the old eagle sweater??
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Mar 16, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Care to explain why in light of the table provided above? Seems silly for Dirk to go through the statistical analysis if it is ultimately irrelevant.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Why no love for Nick Backstrom
Nicky should be right in the MVP hunt.As far as i se it nobody should be close to Ovechkin but for the runner up it should be neck and neck with Crosby ,Sedin and Backstrom.
Ahh…if only the majority of the people who actually vote for these awards were as knowledgeable, and statistically driven, as the people on the intarwebs. Do you really think, though, that this award wont come down to Ovechkin and Ryan Miller in the end? I know you left goalies out for the Vezina discussion, but unless something weird happens over the last few weeks here, I think this is a close 2-horse race, which will ultimately come down in favor of Miller. He’s got the Olympics intangibles, a lesser team, and isnt coming off a 2-game suspension. Yes, its these little things that I think will sway some voters this season.
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
The goalie thing is tough, because really, you could give the MVP to the Vezina trophy winner every year. The best goalie is by far the most valuable player to his team, ahead of any skaters.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Probably true. And the lack of goalies winning the Hart Trophy seems to reflect the belief of the PHWA that goalies should be honored with Vezina. I tend to think its ended up being too skewed toward to skaters though. My point is really only that with these awards, I believe the most important factor is perception, rather than a real analysis of the statistics. Over time, people started to believe Martin Brodeur was a better goalie after some of his defensemen retired. I bet people subconsciously pencil in Lidstrom for the Norris before the season even starts, and that clouds their judgment as the season progresses.
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
Over time, people started to believe Martin Brodeur was a better goalie after some of his defensemen retired.
I actually think it’s the opposite. Since he lost the Scotts he hasn’t been nearly as dominant and I see a lot more people saying “yeah maybe he wasn’t all he was cracked up to be” than “wow, he really is/was even better than I thought.”
Lidstrom should have won the Norris last year. He was being judged against his previous 6 Norris years and not against the rest of the league. He wasn’t as good as he has been, but he was still the best D in the league last year.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Rangers fan, I am biased to agree with you, but he’s won 4 vezinas since 2002-3, which is the year Daneyko retired. Stevens played 31 games in 03-04 before retiring, and Neidermayer left after that same year. So whether you and I think he’s better or worse, it seems like the GMs perception of his value to the Devils changed when his big 3 defensemen left.
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
You may be right. It seems that players/coaches always get more credit when people think they are working with less. Also, I think one of the Vezina’s, at least, was highly dubious. And anyway, the historical context Brodeur is fighting for isn’t “best regular season goalie.” He hasn’t made it past the second round since they beat Anaheim and he’s had some notable collapses. Then again, he may just be getting old.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m recommending you just for not making a hamburger joke.
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
Heh. Too easy.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
A Rangers fan who sticks up for Brodeur and doesn’t make those lame fat jokes? Is that a flying pig I see in the sky? I never thought I’d live to see the day!
by Marty 4 Prez on Mar 18, 2010 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I definitely think the suspensions will hurt AO, but I think it’ll be almost impossible for a goalie to win it. Miller is having a great year, but he’s not blowing away every other goalie, and that’s what I think a goalie has to do to win the Hart. There are too many goalies that are neck and neck with him statistically for him to do it.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously I couldnt disagree more. I see voting being based as much on perception as stats. If it was stats alone then maybe Rinne would have received more consideration for the Calder last year – which, from about middle of the season on, was Mason’s to lose. But, we’ll see. Ovechkin’s stats, and reputation for being the most “exciting” player in the league, might be enough to carry him past Miller’s All-American-feel-good story this year.
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://glensathersucks.com/
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
I think there is a middle ground here. A) You are correct that perception trumps actual numbers. B) I’m correct that it takes a ridiculous season for a goalie to win the Hart. (Plus, as much as I loved what Miller did in the Olympics, it shouldn’t be relevant in the Hart context.)
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Mar 16, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutly not!!
Miller has totally played himself out of the discusion.I reallly don’t see anyway Ovechkin can lose.
Kinda surprised to see Carle all the way up there, and Sedin all the way down there. I think what makes Henrik’s achievements so much more significant (re the Hart debate) is that having lost his brother, he really did have the shoulder the offensive burden a bit. So I hope he ends up a finalist at the very least, he definitely was a “MVP” in that sense.
and I definitely agree with giving Parise more props. Guy needs more credit, IMO.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on On the Forecheck
Related FanShots on On the Forecheck
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
About Me
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis.
Got a question or a suggestion? Feel free to email the.forechecker@gmail.com.
Named by Sports Media Challenge as a Top 10 NHL Blog
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
