Ranking the NHL's Least Valuable Players
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 17, 2010 3:46 PM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintYesterday, I took a statistical approach to determining the NHL's MVP for this season, and I don't think I raised too many eyebrows by touting Alex Ovechkin for a repeat as Hart Trophy winner (although perhaps you might be surprised at my #2). Having gone through that exercise, there's another, perhaps more interesting and debatable question that arises from the assembled data:
Who is this season's Least Valuable Player?
First, of course, the caveat - any player who makes it onto the ice for even one NHL game is an insanely skilled, gifted athlete who will always have my respect, as a "never was" pond-hockey kid and beer leaguer.
That said, just as some players drive positive results for their teams, there are those whose very presence on the ice is a harbinger of doom. I suspect most hockey fans could rattle off a lengthy such list without the benefit of statistics.
The following, then, are those players who have had the worst overall performance in the NHL this season, relative to their teammates. In 5-on-5, power play, and penalty killing work they've been on the ice for more Goals Against, and fewer Goals For, compared to how their team does when they are on the bench. All data originates from Behind the Net. Before you yell at the screen about Scott Niedermayer's presence on this list, consider that perhaps his time as an elite NHL blueliner is over.
| 2009-10 NHL LVP Candidates | |||||||
| Player | Pos | Team | 5-on-5 Impact | PP Impact | PK Impact | Penalty +/- Impact | Total |
| Brad Stuart | D | DET | -16.5 | -8.4 | -18.1 | 1.1 | -41.9 |
| Nate Thompson | C | NYI/T.B | -17.6 | -0.2 | -18.6 | -0.3 | -36.7 |
| Braydon Coburn | D | PHI | -10.5 | -13.5 | -10.5 | -1.5 | -36.0 |
| Richard Park | C | NYI | -13.3 | -0.1 | -21.6 | 0.2 | -34.9 |
| Jack Johnson | D | L.A | -27.7 | -6.0 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -34.6 |
| Steve Staios | D | EDM/CGY | -21.8 | -1.5 | -6.2 | -2.0 | -31.5 |
| Kevin Bieksa | D | VAN | -11.0 | -7.7 | -11.8 | -0.6 | -31.0 |
| Brendan Witt | D | NYI | -19.0 | -0.2 | -11.1 | -0.6 | -30.9 |
| Kevin Klein | D | NSH | -21.7 | -2.4 | -6.4 | 0.0 | -30.4 |
| Scott Niedermayer | D | ANA | -21.8 | 2.9 | -10.4 | -1.1 | -30.3 |
| Rod Brind'Amour | C | CAR | -23.4 | -4.1 | -2.9 | 0.3 | -30.1 |
| Lauri Korpikoski | LW | PHX | -16.9 | -1.0 | -11.5 | -0.5 | -29.9 |
| Todd Marchant | C | ANA | -17.4 | -0.6 | -9.8 | -0.2 | -27.9 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | C | COL | -8.1 | -3.1 | -16.8 | 0.6 | -27.4 |
| Ruslan Fedotenko | LW | PIT | -26.2 | -1.4 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -27.3 |
I've narrowed the selection here to players with at least 40 games played, and at least 5 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time per game, for practical purposes. Players with less ice time simply don't have the opportunity to drive as many Goals For & Against in the wrong direction.
Perhaps he suffered the dual burden of Nicklas Kronwall's lengthy absence, along with comparison (in part) to one of hockey's all-time greats. Just as yesterday I cited Nicklas Lidstrom's stellar PK work, Stuart has been at the opposite end of that scale.
A two-team boat anchor dragging both the Islanders and Lightning out of playoff contention this year, Thompson is #2 on our list of disastrous penalty killers, which you'll find below.
Part of what drags Coburn down is a direct comparison to Matt Carle and Chris Pronger, who ranked highly on yesterday's MVP list, but his power play work has been a train wreck. During his 2+ minutes of 5-on-4 ice time per game, the Flyers score 4.7 goals per 60 minutes, a rate which would rank 29th as a team. When he's on the bench during a Philadelphia PP, they score more than twice as often.
The 5 Least Valuable Players in 5-on-5 Play
- Jack Johnson, Los Angeles (-27.7)
- Ruslan Fedotenko, Pittsburgh (-26.3)
- Rod Brind'Amour, Carolina (-23.4)
- Cody McLeod, Colorado (-22.7)
- Patrick O'Sullivan, Edmonton (-22.6)
The 5 Least Valuable Players on the Power Play (5-on-4)
- Tom Gilbert, Edmonton (-18.8)
- Kris Letang, Pittsburgh (-15.1)
- Scott Gomez, Montreal (-15.0)
- Braydon Coburn, Philadelphia (-13.5)
- Derick Brassard, Columbus (-13.4)
The 5 Least Valuable Penalty Killers (4-on-5)
- Richard Park, New York Islanders (-21.6)
- Nate Thompson, NY Islanders/Tampa Bay (-18.6)
- Brad Stuart, Detroit (-18.1)
- Ryan O'Reilly, Colorado (-16.8)
- Ryan Callahan, New York Rangers (-14.5)
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Leggy saves himself with being one of the Preds’ better penalty killers. He came in at #204 on this list (out of 535), pretty middle-of-the-pack.
More fun than a stick to the face!
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And I'm just joking
Good Write Up. Although it would be nice to see some salaries on the list………(cough) (Legwand)
by Bobby Briggs on Mar 17, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it’d be pretty cool if salaries were somehow incorporated into the equation… multiply their LVP total by their salary, in millions?
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 17, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
I’m surprised O’Reilly is so poor in PK situations. i’m not sure how those are calculated, but O’Reilly has been the avs top forward PKer all year (and the avs are a respectable 13th in PK).
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Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on Mar 17, 2010 4:08 PM EDT reply actions
He may be out there a lot, but he’s getting killed. Almost 3 minutes per game of 4-on-5 play, but giving up 8.66 Goals/60 minutes.
More fun than a stick to the face!
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Now, there's a list no one wants to be on!......
- Brendan Witt – didn’t he get hit by a car earlier this year?, got up, brushed himself off, then suited up for a game that night? no matter what his numbers…He’s ok with me!
-Niedermeyer – still a good d-man in my book, he’s still got a few years in him, I think, probably not as an “elite” guy though
-Brind’Amour – ugly numbers for a former captain of a Stanley Cup winning team.
-Klein – no surprises there
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 17, 2010 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
Niedermayer has a ridiculously high QualComp and no stud second D-man to defray that. Combine that with his losing some of that explosive skating ability (although he’s still obscenely smooth) and his numbers are going to be awful.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 18, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully Trotz will consider Klein’s spot on the list when evaluating Franson’s fate once Grebeshkov returns to the line-up.
yeah but...
Trick is he can’t send Klein down, he can send Franson down. Of course now that we’re post trade deadline and moving toward the playoffs we can hopefully afford to keep 8 D and let Klein ride the pine a bit more.
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Happy to see no Capitals inside this post.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
two seperate headlines.....
headline 1) “Ovechkin disappointed with suspension……”
headline 2) “Ovechkin apologizes for hit…..”
is it just me, or does this make no sense?
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 17, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
these articles are solid dirk, looking forward to more
any ideas for the next, if you’re continuing it?
Beats me... The NHL's Most Remarkably Unremarkable, Average Performers???
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
By the way...
That honor goes to James VanRiemsdyk in Philadelphia. His net impact (relative to the rest of the Flyers) is +0.01 goals.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Heh, that rocks.
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by Travis Hughes on Mar 18, 2010 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
one word
BELAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I knew someone would say that....
he doesn’t get enough ice time (thank god) to even make this list
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 17, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting post
I’m incredibly surprised none of my Leafs made the list.
Perhaps one could be done for Goaltenders? I don’t want Toskala getting away without a making a Top 5 Least Valuable Players list!
Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.
Ryan Callahan was awesome for Team USA on the PK. And he always seems to kill the Caps’ PP unit. That might be the biggest surprise of the whole post.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Without looking, I bet his QualComp at 4-on-5 is high and his QualTeam is low. Same thing with Nieds — he can still play at a high NHL level, but he’s not single-handedly shutting down the top two lines the other squad rolls every night.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 18, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Ethan Moreau
How in the world is Ethan Moreau not on here. Gotta be PDO.
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“It’s gotta be the PDO…”
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Richard Park
I’m not surprised to see Park on the list of LVPs penalty-killing, but he has potted a good number of shorties with the Isles if I remember
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He’s only got 1 this year, but he had 8 in the three seasons before that. He’d need a pretty good hot streak down the stretch to reverse those PK numbers…
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
I’d be interested to see how the “top” 2 players from each time stack up here. After reading this and the MVP award, I found no Sharks on either list.
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Jon Casey fan since '84
Interesting question, I'll look into that tomorrow
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On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 17, 2010 11:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
St Louis fans need only mention one name....
Eric Brewer…….Ugh…..I just threw up in my mouth a little……
I still maintain Vladimir Konstantinov got what he deserved...If you can't handle that then kiss my ass......
"I've got a bad feeling about this..."
This is a great article
Though Vesa Toskala is my vote for Least Valuable Player, his PK sv% is pretty bad (around .860 i believe).
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Mar 18, 2010 9:34 AM EDT reply actions
So Toronto didn’t make the list because they’re all bad?
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Mar 18, 2010 10:36 AM EDT reply actions
Exactly
The key thing to remember here is we’re looking for individuals who stand out most from the rest of their team. The Maple Leafs are a very well-balanced pile of &^@$!
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
The Maple Leafs are a very well-balanced pile of &^@$!
hahahahaha
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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Mar 18, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Ruslan Fedotenko has the worst 5-on-5 impact of anyone on this list (and I’d imagine anyone in the league). He doesn’t play any appreciable PK time, so if you throw that out he’s arguably having the worst season of anyone.
I’m sending this to the Penguins — get the anchor off Malkin’s line!
Wayne Gretzky had it wrong: 100% of the shots Gary Roberts doesn't take DO go in.
Brad Stuart??? I think your logic is way off. Stuart should not be on the top of this list. He should have no PP impact because he only played on it because of all the injuries. He is a very good penalty killer. Those stats are only because of the crap players he was forced to play with.
Did you see what I wrote under his picture?
Perhaps he suffered the dual burden of Nicklas Kronwall’s lengthy absence, along with comparison (in part) to one of hockey’s all-time greats.
Again, this is a simple matter of his GF/GA performance sticking out so negatively compared to his teammates. That’s not the same as saying he’s the worst player in the league. You are right, though, that he’s only seeing the PP time he is because of injuries elsewhere.
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On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
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