How much should the Nashville Predators pay Patric Hornqvist?

by Chris Burton on Mar 22, 2010 3:31 PM EDT

Sure, the playoffs are right around the corner, and the Predators are on fire, but its time to shift our attentions momentarily to another issue- the re-signing of the team's leading goal-scorer, Patric Hornqvist. Hornqvist will be a restricted free agent at the end of the year, which means if he signs with another team the Predators will be reimbursed to a certain extent via draft picks.

Follow after the jump for a look at his performance and how it compares to some other NHL snipers...

For discussion's sake, here are his numbers:

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Patric Hornqvist ($713,000, 23yo)	72	28	17	45	14	32	10	0	8	0	242	11.6

There's little doubt that "Horn Dog" has been at the very least the team's offensive MVP this season. He has a chance to break Jason Arnott's Nashville goal scoring record, needing six goals in ten games to do so. There's little doubt, too, that he needs to be locked up long-term. The Predators don't have an abundance of scoring, so when you find a diamond in the rough like Hornqvist its important to keep him around. His game is not as well-known as Martin Erat's, so don't expect a contract over 4 million per year, and he's only had this sort of success in the short term. With that in mind, here are some players with similar numbers and their respective cap hits (starting, obviously, on the higher end of things):

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Loui Eriksson ($4,266,000, 24yo) 2009 - Ryan Malone ($4,500,000, 30yo) 2009 - Brooks Laich ($2,066,066, 26yo) 2009 - Radim Vrbata ($3,000,000, 28yo)	72 65 72 73	26 21 24 23	37 23 32 19	63 44 56 42	-7 -9 +13 +11	22 59 32 24	6 7 11 6	2 0 1 0	2 7 3 4	0 0 0 0	192 169 210 245	13.5 12.4 11.4 9.4

+/-

PIM

PPG

SHG

GWG

GTG

SOG

PCT

2009 - Loui Eriksson ($4,266,000, 24yo)

2009 - Ryan Malone ($4,500,000, 30yo)

2009 - Brooks Laich ($2,066,066, 26yo)

2009 - Radim Vrbata ($3,000,000, 28yo)

-7

-9

+13

+11

192

169

210

245

13.5

12.4

11.4

9.4

Obviously, what stands out here is the efficiency of Eriksson, then the overpayment of Malone. Brooks Laich, on the other hand, is incredibly productive for his salary. There were other players to choose from, but I felt that these gave us both ends of the spectrum and a good idea for what to expect.

If I were general manager David Poile, I would offer Patric Hornqvist a three year deal worth a little over two million per year. What this does is rewards Patric for an excellent season while putting faith in him for the future without overpaying and hamstringing your budget as Tampa Bay did with Malone. I now turn the floor over to the reader-what would you pay Patric Hornqvist?

Poll

How much should Predators GM David Poile pay Patric Hornqvist?

<$1 million per year

2 votes

$1-2 million per year

53 votes

$2-3 million per year

156 votes

$3 million or more per year

27 votes

238 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Nice work. I’m in the 1.5-2.5 camp but I voted 1-2 because I think that’s where Poile should be aiming with an RFA. With those numbers he probably clears 2 but not by too much.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Mar 22, 2010 3:44 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry to double post, but I just realized that the two worst contracts on that list were both signed by TBL. How many other GMs do you think are cursing TBL for that spending spree last summer?

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Mar 22, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for commenting. What was strange to me was how old Malone is and how long his deal was— TBL is getting jobbed.

I’d agree on your numbers; the reason I don’t want to go 3M+ is because he’s only done this for one season. If we had two 30g years, then I could start talking a 5 or 6 year deal.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 22, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

This is going to be a very difficult signing. I don’t foresee it going well at all. There are plenty of teams that would be willing to pay $3-4 million (or more) for his services which could force David Poile’s hand into over paying or losing a player with good future potential.

by Preds On The Glass on Mar 22, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

why

as a preds fan why am i always afraid of our players getting good specifically for this reason? Poile better keep this one.

by flyalder on Mar 22, 2010 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

A little perspective on Offer Sheets

By the way, if a team did try to swoop in and sign Hornqvist to an offer sheet, for a yearly salary of $2.6-3.9 million, the compensation that Nashville would receive back would be a 1st and 3rd round pick if he left the Preds.

http://www.nhlscap.com/offer_sheets.htm

Those figures are from the 2008-9 season, but given the way the cap has stayed pretty much the same since then, they should be close to accurate.

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by Dirk Hoag on Mar 22, 2010 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

So basically if I’m GMDP I start around 1.5 and I’m willing to go right up to 2.6. If someone offers more then take the 1 and 3. GMDP loves his draft picks and is on a tight budget so I wouldn’t be shocked to let him go at that price.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Mar 22, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, a third AND a first? Thats pretty impressive. We couldn’t get that for him in a straight up trade. I’d rather have him, obviously, but if his agent gets wonky and wants 3+….I don’t know, man. Tough one.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 22, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s assuming someone actually comes in with such an offer. In practice, they are very, very rare. NHL GM’s prefer not to step on each others’ toes.

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by Dirk Hoag on Mar 22, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree, but it sets the strategy for GMDP. He knows nobody is going to offer more than 2.6 because they don’t step on toes and they’d be giving up a lot for it. That gives GMDP all the leverage and a good deal of cost certainty. I’d have to think 2.6 at almost any term would be something NSH fans would be able to live with.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Mar 22, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d have to be OK with that, and its not like its gross overpayment. We simply can’t afford to let young goal scoring go. If we re-signed Kevin Klein and Hornqvist leaves, I’ll be livid.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 22, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Well Poile is paying Erat 4.5 for 20 goals and Legwand 4.5 for 10 goals, so why would he not be willing to pay over 3 for a guy who will be around a lot longer. I think if we can get him in that 2.4 – 2.8 range it would be a steal!

by hockeyniner on Mar 22, 2010 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Agree about production comparison on own team

Erat and Legwand contracts show that Poile is willing to spend the money. Hornquist is only 23 years old too compared to the other guys in your table. Another thing is look at other teams paying players even though they still have RFA available (Kane, Toews, Havlat, Weber, Suter – good example because he hadn’t really burst on the scene yet, Hamhuis, Zetterberg and Datysuk last contracts). I tried to list guys in our conference to show that GMs will pay for potential as well as only a season or two of production.

by VApreds on Mar 22, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Well….#1….he doesn’t have to yet…….YET…..I love this site by the way. I probably check it 10 times a day in order to satiate my incessant daily need for Preds news. Thank you Mr. Hoag and Mr. Burton for ALL that you do!!

by prcleburne113064 on Mar 22, 2010 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Thanks for signing up and hopping into the discussion, that’s what makes it all work.

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On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Mar 22, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Minnesota is in the same situation...

With Guillaume Latendresse this season who has suddenly exploded and has very similar stats to Hornqvist since a mid-season trade from Montreal.

I’m guessing that both Fletcher in Minnesota and Poile are looking hard at each other wondering what the other is going to do and who is going to blink first. Whoever signs a contract first will set the market for the other and you just hope that the market isn’t set too high by one or the other…

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by Seth Lake on Mar 22, 2010 8:01 PM EDT reply actions

There were a bunch of other “comps” I could’ve included, but I wanted some guys who’s contractual situations were already set.

But yeah, the Latendresse deal is going to be interesting.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 22, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

What's been fun...

Is that I picked up Hornqvist about two weeks into the season after he showed that his scoring wasn’t a fluke and then picked up Latendresse a few days after his trade when he too showed that his scoring explosion wasn’t a fluke either. 50+ goals later, my team is in the league championship!

I realize that neither is a legitimate comparable for each other in this instance, but it will be interesting to see which one signs first because ultimately…I think they are looking at virtually the same contract.

Similar age, similar existing salary, both RFA’s, both with only one year of legitimate scoring history behind them…

Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...

by Seth Lake on Mar 23, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

2 to 4 years at anything 2.5 to under 3 sounds decent.he needs to work on his shot though, or really lack of one. i love his game and he is great in the crease but he needs to add a decent wrister and slap shot. if you took all his goals and added the distance up it would barely cross center ice. he is NO threat anywhere but in front of or around the net.

by predswilrule on Mar 22, 2010 8:24 PM EDT reply actions