Should the Nashville Predators split up Kevin Klein & Dan Hamhuis?

by Dirk Hoag on Mar 4, 2010 5:18 PM EST in Statistical Analysis

Nashville Predators fans are known for bringing the noise with a variety of traditions and chants that the crowd engages in on a nightly basis, but head coach Barry Trotz may not like the latest one being proposed; "Split 2-8".

The defense pairing of Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein has been a lightning rod of criticism all season, due to perceived under-performance from those two as a group; while they each may be fine defensemen, as a pairing they often leave Predators fans doing the "facepalm". Just check the #split28 hashtag on Twitter for a sampling of the conversation.

But is that pairing really so bad, or is this a case of fans picking on these guys unjustly? After all, even stars like Shea Weber and Ryan Suter mess up on occasion.

Follow after the jump for a breakdown of how the various defense pairs have really fared this season...

The table below shows, for selected defense pairings, the following Even Strength data from TimeOnIce.com:

Games Played
Goals For when they've been on the ice
Goals Against when they've been on the ice
Totals Shots For when they've been on the ice (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots)
Total Shots Against when they've been on the ice
Corsi (.500 means Total Shots For = Total Shots Against, better than .500 is good, etc.)
The Save Percentage for Nashville when that defense pair is on the ice. This is meant to express the quality of the shots they are giving up.

Defense Pairs (Even Strength)	GP	GF	GA	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi	On-Ice Sv %
Ryan Suter / Shea Weber	60	39	34	900	796	.531	.927
Dan Hamhuis / Kevin Klein	57	23	32	524	532	.496	.881
Francis Bouillon / Cody Franson	38	11	5	211	190	.526	.954
Francis Bouillon / Alexander Sulzer	17	4	5	140	134	.511	.934
Francis Bouillon / Shea Weber	28	1	1	39	53	.424	.958
Dan Hamhuis / Shea Weber	33	3	3	44	34	.564	.850
Ryan Suter / Kevin Klein	27	3	1	28	41	.406	.952

There are two big items that jump out at me here. First (obvious since I've shaded it) is the fact that when Hamhuis and Klein are out there together, shots go in the net at a much greater pace than with the other main defense pairs. While it's possible that this is just a matter of dumb luck, it's pretty hard to make that argument when you've seen as many gaffes as Hamhuis and Klein have committed this season. The fact that their Corsi number is under .500 doesn't bother me much, because they do generally face elite talent from the other team, and the rating is not too bad there. But that .881 Save Percentage is a real groaner. The bottom line is that Hamhuis/Klein give up nasty scoring chances and it continues to burn the Preds on a regular basis (I even split their performance down into various segments, and this trend has continued all year).

As a point of reference, the team's overall Save Percentage at Even Strength is .921.

The second remarkable aspect of all this is how stubborn these pairings have been; Suter & Weber play together, Hamhuis & Klein play together, and Bouillon babysits. We really don't see much variation from that scheme.

There's been an idea I've tossed out several times this season, and based on what we saw at the Olympics, I'm inclined to press it even further. Might the Predators be better served by breaking up Ryan Suter & Shea Weber, going with Hamhuis/Weber and Suter/Klein, for instance? That way, instead of having your two star defensemen on the ice together for 20 minutes a game, you can have at least one of them out there for 40.

With Denis Grebeshkov in the mix, there are a variety of options available now, one of which might involve bumping Klein back down to a 3rd pairing for the time being. No matter what, I think it's clear that "Split 2-8" would be a good move right now.

Note: Due to small sample size, I wouldn't read too much into the Corsi and On-Ice Sv % numbers on those last 3 lines in the table.

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I don't think it's all dumb luck

obviously turnovers have been part of it. Variability/goaltending is also a very big part of that stat, however, and I think that number would be much closer to .900 over more games. I’m not opposed to mixing up the bottom 2 pairs, but I do think Klein and Hamhuis get too much crap from fans (me included) because they remember a few turnovers and don’t remember that they face the best offensive talent.

I just can’t think of a reason that Klein and Hamhuis are intrinsically bad as pairing. Maybe it’s that neither is a very good puck-handler the way Suter or Bouillon is for their respective lines?

by Sam Page on Mar 4, 2010 5:26 PM EST reply actions

chemistry

D-pairings have to have chemistry int he Preds system. D-men are encouraged to pinch in and be aggressive in the offensive zone. When you watch Suter/Weber, or Boullion/[anyone] they tend to do a very good job of covering each other in these situations. One player pinches in, the other backs off to cover the center of the ice. For whatever reason, Hammer and Klein consistently seem to 1) turnover the puck at a slightly higher rate 2) more importantly they give up breakaway and 2-on-1 chances that lead to this situation. Maybe it isn’t entirely their fault, maybe the forwards aren’t supporting enough in those situations where a d-man goes low in the zone… but whatever it is, it is worse for that pairing than any other.

At this point the argument shouldn’t be “why is this happening”, just stop it.

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by pwnicholson on Mar 4, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

Klein doesn't communicate...

Remember when Zanon was here and you could hear him communicating with everyone on the ice from the top row of the arena? Klein doesn’t do it in games and he doesn’t do it in practices. Sit close to the ice sometime. You’ll be amazed at the amount of verbal communication that goes on out there during the pace of a game. Klein doesn’t do it and IMO it has really hindered Hamhuis this season…

A perfect example of what I’m talking about happened earlier this season in Columbus where over the telecast you could hear Bouillon talking to Klein and telling him to “wheel” around the net. Instead, Klein made a reverse pass and Bouillon immediately knew he was screwed as the two forecheckers promptly creamed him as he rung the puck up the boards and out of the zone. On the very next shift, Klein went racing back for the puck and reversed it back to Bouillon (who was calling for it) to avoid the forecheck and there was no problem breaking out of the zone. Third shift, Bouillon comes back under pressure, the second forechecker commits to cutting off Bouillon at the other side of the net and Klein just stands there looking like a dear in headlights…Bouillon got his head up in time to see the hit he was about to take and reversed the puck to Klein, Klein was late to react and the puck was turned over and became a prime scoring chance.

I think it’s two-fold. Klein doesn’t communicate because Klein doesn’t read the play at a fast enough pace to communicate with his partner. Hamhuis has certainly made plenty of gaffes of his own this season, but to me it is evident that the chemistry is not there due to the lack of communication on the ice from his partner.

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by Seth Lake on Mar 4, 2010 5:36 PM EST reply actions

Dynamite stuff here

Verbal communication is so important on defense, and obviously for most of us it’s not something we can readily observe from the 300’s.

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by Dirk Hoag on Mar 5, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

Dirk, do you regularly e-mail these charts and stats to the Preds? You really should if you don't

Maybe eventually they would get the idea that there is a problem

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by 3DLink on Mar 4, 2010 5:45 PM EST reply actions

Who else does Hamhuis play with most? Has it just been lack of other options? Will Grebeshkov/Hamhuis be the solution?

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by Rob Parker on Mar 5, 2010 3:10 AM EST reply actions

that's the thing

Trotz’s refusal to break up the Hamhuis/Klein pair for the good of the team has been my only gripe with him this season. There are plenty of good options. As Dirk said, I’d go Weber/Hamhuis, Suter/Klein, and stick with Cube/Grebeshkov. Gives Suter a chance at standing out and improving Klein, and DH gains the partner he always should’ve had.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 5, 2010 7:56 AM EST up reply actions

Media Question

Dirk/Chris (and Brandon, Paul, Mark, etc.)….

You guys are credentialed media members, correct?

Do you guys not ever get an opportunity to ask these types of questions of the coaching staff either after games, or one-off interviews, etc?

When I got back into blogging this year, my hope was to build up enough “cred” (really got to write soon again, too much real-life work) to be able to ask those types of questions?

Do you guys not get to ask those questions or not have the opportunity to do so?

Great work of presenting what we all suspsected Dirk. Great insight too Seth.

Thanks.

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by David Singleton on Mar 5, 2010 8:35 AM EST reply actions

I’m not (unfortunately), not sure about Dirk. I’m pretty sure Brandon Felder and Buddy Oakes (PredsOnTheGlass.com) are, though.

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by Chris Burton on Mar 5, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions

I have the opportunity for credentials, but don’t use them very often. As a father of three, it’s hard to get down there more often than our ticket package allows, and when I have tickets, one of my kids is with me so I don’t do the press thing.

I’ll forward this to Buddy, though, to see if he wants to ask about it on Sunday.

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by Dirk Hoag on Mar 5, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

I wondered...

If I were to receive credentials at some point, I’d be in a similar boat. I’d most likely have my (now) four year old son with me.

Wasn’t sure what the SOP was in that event. On the surface, it just doesn’t feel professional to consistently have your child with you on something like that. On the other hand, you hear the stories about how kids (of atheletes, coaches, management, etc.) “grow up” in the sporting world. Even so, I’m not really comfortable with it.

That, combined with my overall availability due to my real job and family, has reduced my desire to fervently chase credentials. I just don’t think I have the time to do them and Predators’ fans justice.

Thanks Dirk.

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by David Singleton on Mar 5, 2010 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

Bringing a kid is definitely a no-no, don’t even think about it!

The other part of it is that for what I do, locker-room access isn’t that important. Buddy & Brandon do a good job getting the post-game quotes, and I prefer to sit back and take a more analytical view. Plus, it’s a pain to record a conversation and transcribe it afterwards. That’s why Buddy’s hit the magic formula with his YouTube efforts after every game.

More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Mar 5, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions