Barry Trotz wins 400th game as Nashville tops Atlanta, 2-1
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 9, 2010 9:57 PM EST
in Game Recaps
47 comments
Colin Wilson scored the game-winner and Dan Ellis stopped 30 of 31 Thrashers shots as the Nashville Predators beat Atlanta 2-1 to launch their four-game road trip. For head coach Barry Trotz, it was his 400th career NHL victory, all of course with the Predators.
Kudos to Aditya for the awesomeness
Follow after the jump for commentary and advanced statistics, and check the video widget on the right sidebar for highlights as soon as they become available...
It looked early on like the Preds would command this one handily, as they jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first period. A power play goal (!) by Ryan Suter that featured plenty of traffic in front of Johan Hedberg in the Atlanta net got Nashville on the board. Then, late in the period, Colin Wilson jumped on a loose puck that Mark Popovic couldn't handle, and took it right in on Hedberg to score his 4th goal of the season (and ultimately his second game-winner).
In the second, however, the Thrashers came out much more determined, and almost immediately got back into it, scoring just 29 seconds into the period as Nik Antropov tipped home a back-door play behind Dan Ellis. From there, the Thrashers tried to maintain a high tempo, and at times the Thrashers and Preds traded chances back and forth. Ellis had a really fine night in the Nashville net, sometimes having to stray out of his crease to cut down the angles, but using his stick to recover when needed, as in one instance in the third when Antropov cruised through the zone waiting for the perfect opportunity to shoot.
In an encouraging sign for the Preds, special teams played a positive role in tonight's outcome. Suter's power play goal kept that unit humming, and the penalty killers did a generally good job fighting off two Atlanta chances. There was one sequence when the PK group (particularly Marcel Goc and Kevin Klein) got too eager to force offensive pressure, and nearly coughed up an odd-man rush.
All in all, it was a pretty good road win. The team only took two penalties (neither was egregious), and they played a pretty smart game. It will likely take a better effort, however, against San Jose on Thursday to pull out another win.
Thanks to Calgary beating Detroit in regulation tonight, the Preds remain in 7th place in the West, with a two-point advantage over the Flames.
After spending this week on the road, the Predators play their next home game Tuesday, March 16 against the Philadelphia Flyers. For cheap tickets to this, or any Nashville Predators home game, follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".
Barry Trotz adjusted to the loss of two regular defensemen by loading up his four veterans with heavy minutes, and keeping the rookie tandem of Cody Franson and Alexander Sulzer paired together, banking on their experience playing with each other in Milwaukee.
Apparently J.P. Dumont is back in the dog house, as he logged the least ice time on the team tonight, nearly invisible on a line with Dustin Boyd and Jordin Tootoo.
| Individual Totals | Team Totals While Player Is On Ice | |||||||||||
| Player | Pos | EV TOI | Shots | Shts Blkd | Missed Shts | Blocks | SOG For | SOG Ag | SOG +/- | Tot SF | Tot SA | Corsi |
| Jason Arnott | C | 16:26 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| Colin Wilson | C | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Martin Erat | R | 15:20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 | 16 | -3 |
| Steve Sullivan | L | 15:14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 14 | 16 | -2 |
| Patric Hornqvist | R | 14:50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Marcel Goc | C | 14:48 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Joel Ward | R | 14:42 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 |
| David Legwand | C | 14:30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| Jerred Smithson | R | 14:12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 |
| Dustin Boyd | C | 8:28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 |
| Jordin Tootoo | R | 8:07 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| J P Dumont | R | 7:43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 |
| Dan Hamhuis | D | 21:56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 21 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Suter | D | 21:52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 9 |
| Francis Bouillon | D | 20:43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 18 | 25 | -7 |
| Kevin Klein | D | 20:38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 21 | 22 | -1 |
| Alexander Sulzer | D | 11:36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| Cody Franson | D | 10:33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
0 recs |
47 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Umm...
Dirk,
Wasn’t Bouillon a +9 in the Corsi rating at the end of two periods? He finished a -7…in other words, he was a -16 in the third period – granted Atlanta did have a pair of PP’s in there too…
Predators Hockey: Live it, Love it...
That interim report was incorrect
I forgot to clean out some data in the spreadsheet so that +9 was incorrect, sorry for the confusion.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
by Dirk Hoag on Mar 9, 2010 10:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He needs to be ridden until he goes cold.
In other news, that is an incredible picture.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 9, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
OK I'll say it...
I thought all along that Ellis should be the starter. He should have gotten the new contract, for probably the same amount. To me he is the better goaltender, he is so much more consistent. I think consistency is the most important attribute for a starting goaltender. At least the team knows what they need to do on a night by night basis. Rinne, although the superior netminder at times, is too inconsistent for my taste.
by jerseypredsfan on Mar 9, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Did you see yesterday’s morning links? There was an article in there which depicts Rinne as the 2nd-most inconsistent goalie in the NHL this season. Ellis was above-average in that regard.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Ellis or Bust
I totally agree with chris, I don’t want a repeat of that incident the other month when Ellis got the shutout but not the next start. Also I think we should all aspire to look like Barry when we win 400 NHL games
Ellis and Pekka.
The team plays better in front of Ellis and you know it. They know they have to play harder in front of Ellis because of the terrible rebounds. Ellis is a good athlete but a bad goalie. Pekka is the man, but just needs to quit taking easy stops for granted.
The team plays better in front of Ellis and you know it. They know they have to play harder in front of Ellis because of the terrible rebounds.
That’s a pretty outlandish statement and pretty impossible to prove, especially since Ellis is still getting it done with half of the D-corps. Do you mean they play better in the sense that they have scored fewer goals when Ellis plays? I’ve never thought Ellis has had much of a rebound problem anyway.
If anything Rinne is the athlete who hasn’t put it all together. I think they’re about equal at this point, but Ellis has clearly had the better season.
Ok...
I guess a 13 and 12 record is better than 22 and 13.
Neither is better or worse
it’s just a reflection of the goal support each goalie has gotten in their games. Ellis has pretty clearly had a better season.
Well if you want to get into stats, Rinne may have the better W-L record, but Ellis is better in both SV%(.913 to .901) and GAA (2.59 to 2.79).
oh and Ellis is now 14 and 12.
You can twists stats to prove any point
Graphic Designer/Researcher/Writer at Music City Miracles.
Official Graphic Goon of On The Forecheck.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Mar 10, 2010 2:25 AM EST up reply actions
http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728
It’s a great book. Worth a read.
That’s the first book reviewer’s comment too.
People don’t “lie”, per se. But people do use actual, relevant statistics to prove a point, ignoring or omitting other relevant statistics that would taint or disprove their argument. Sure, there are z-tests and standard deviation models out there that can (and will) accurately determine trends, but I still agree that one can misuse statistics to prove a point.
the key is understand what the statistics here say
SV% is percentage of saves a goalie makes based on all the shots he faces, which is a measure of the goalie and the defense’s skill. W-L, on the other hand, is how many games the team wins/loses with the goalie in the net, so it includes the goalie, the defense, the offense, and the opposing team’s offensive play.
eh
Its hard to argue with his GAA and save %. Pekka has more wins, but he’s also played 14 more games. Who knows what Ellis’ record would be with forty GP.
Dirk would probably be able to figure it out more in depth, but to my eyes, Ellis has been more consistent this year. Also, I don’t think you can make the statement the team plays harder in front of one than the other. Thats pretty out-there, these guys are professionals and for the most part bring it hard night in and night out.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 8:18 AM EST up reply actions
hmm
I would think that Ellis should be more than a couple games over .500 to make this argument. Maybe if he was more than 2 games over .500 then he would have gotten more starts. If he is 14 and 5 then i would agree that he should play more. He wasn’t playing because he wasn’t winning. He was playing.500 hockey.
Ellis play
Again, I’m out of market so I only saw the highlights. However, that Thrashers goal looked pretty soft by Ellis if you ask me. To be honest, I’m not sure that either goaltender is a long term answer for the team. They both seem to give up soft goals, though both can also make some incredible saves.
That being said, Ellis did get the W and I hope he gets rewarded with some playing time.
TN Sports fan in Hoosier Country....
Ellis is the man....
no stats needed, he has just looked better, and more comfortable in net, than Pekka. It’s not so much that goals are going in on Peks, it’s the look of those goals I haven’t liked. His “body positioning” has not been good lately. I don’t get that vibe from Ellis.
Barry Trotz… who’s better?….. best coach ever….. congrats and keep up the good work Trotzie. (great photoshopping there aditya!)
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 8:09 AM EST reply actions
I’d have to agree that he looks more comfortable right now. I don’t see Dan getting flustered like Peks when he lets in a bad goal, for one thing.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
Pekka’s puck-handling gives me heart-attacks as well. There is definitely some work to be done there.
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 8:24 AM EST up reply actions
I'm with you Chris
There was a very bad defensive break down(I know, I know…just one?) a couple of months ago that led to a goal on Peks and he jumped up and started yelling at Hammer and/or Klein. I thought that showed a big lack of poise and maturity on his part….I think he’s having a hard time with his mental toughness this year and it’s showing in his consistency.
I remember that....
I remember thinking “well, at least he’s playing with emotion. could be good emotion, could be bad emotion, time will tell”. Peks’ “mental game” is definitely a factor here.
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I specifically remember one instance where he let in an awful, awful goal and took off his mask and smacked the ice with his stick—can’t for the life of me recall which game.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
It was Atlanta!
They have 66 points. Did you watch the Detroit game where Ellis played? Pekka played his ass off in the Vancouver game. A team which is better than both Atlanta and Detroit. He let the soft one in, but besides that he was great.
Someone said Pekka has more goal support. That is because the team can open up more and play more offense with Pekka out there. They have to play more of a defensive game when Ellis is playing. They have to get back and clear the slot constantly due to his rebounds. More goals equals more wins, which is why Pekka is well over 500. How many times was there a puck laying wide open in front of our goal last night? Think about it. How many times were you screaming at the screen for someone to clear the puck? It was constantly for me after the 1st period.
Ellis gives up way too many second chances on shots. Way too many!
Well, if you let in a soft one you aren't that great that night.
Most of our games are decided by a goal, so one soft goal is most likely the difference.
They both have their streaks.
Graphic Designer/Researcher/Writer at Music City Miracles.
Official Graphic Goon of On The Forecheck.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Mar 10, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
You missed the point.
We are way above .500 with Pekka in goal, Ellis gives up way too many second chances.That’s the point.
I’m not real sure how much we can read into that. Ellis has better stats, in fact, significantly better. I’m going to be getting into that deeper today, so look for that tomorrow, but our record with Rinne may be a product of 1) so many more games, which strangely lends itself to more wins, and 2) coincidence. I don’t know, which is leading to some deeper research.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Coincidence?
What does amount of games matter? Ellis could be 14 and 5 and be way over .500 too. He isn’t. If he was and has been playing well all year, then he would be playing those games. Pekka was the one winning and that’s why he has played.
When we play Pekka he rarely gives up second chances on a puck. That leads to less shots against in a game and more offensive chances for us. As a result of the less rebounds he gives up, teams have less shots, which means his save percentage is going to be worse. However, he is giving up less scoring opportunities. I will admit Ellis recovers well on most rebounds, but just having those rebounds will get you after a while.
I’ll just say a few things here, because I’m going to make a post out of this, but dwell on this for now.
You do remember the goalie rotation, I assume? Trotz was not differentiating between who was winning and who wasn’t, he even discarded the shutout rule.
Statistics don’t lie at face-value, and Ellis has stopped more shots and let in less goals. Thats pretty simple. For whatever reason, he has a worse record. I think if Ellis plays in forty games, he probably has a better winning percentage because of the way goalies tend to get in a groove.
Some of his winning % may be due to goal support, and some of it may be due to coincidental defensive lapses. I’m pretty sure our defensemen don’t choose which goalie to screw up in front of. Again, I’m going to do my homework and get this better laid out. I’m working on a stream of consciousness right now.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
You are right...
Klein screws up in front of both, but they don’t have to battle for monster rebounds when Pekka plays.
Pekka’s biggest weakness this season is taking the easy stops for granted. I will be the 1st to admit that he has let in some really weak goals. Ellis has too. I don’t know what to blame that on, but laziness on both goalies part. I think of the Vancouver goal the other day against Pekka and I think of the one Ellis let in against Detroit before the break. The one Zetterberg shot from behind the red line that bounced off Ellis’s shoulder cause he wasn’t against the pipe.
No doubt, both goalies have been streaky this year, but Ellis still looks the most “comfortable” in net to me.
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
"It was Atlanta"?
don’t underestimate the Thrashers(even without Kovy). They played a great 3rd period and were a legitimate threat. We have Ellis to thank for the win. People are always saying that sort of thing about us…. “it was Nashville” because they underestimate us (although, not so much, these days)… beware of the “It’s just (insert team name here)” mindset.
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry...
I didn’t mean to downplay you guys. However, you aren’t as good as Vancouver and neither are we. I will say Sundays lost to them made me feel better after what Vancouver did to Colorado last night. They scored 3 in the 3rd to come back. Vancouver is also in the midst of a 14 game road trip.
FYI, dekefreak is a Preds fan, too.
On the Forecheck: a blog that's more productive than a Predator power play!
Follow me on Twitter
by Chris Burton on Mar 10, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
I'm a Preds fan all the way!
But, I’m also just a hockey fan in general. Grew up in Hartford,CT watchin the whalers. So I keep a perspective that’s not just necessarily from a Preds’ fan perspective.
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Ellis is NHL.com's 2nd star of the night
Graphic Designer/Researcher/Writer at Music City Miracles.
Official Graphic Goon of On The Forecheck.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Mar 10, 2010 12:17 PM EST reply actions
That sounds right....
Seeing that overall it was not a good night for goaltenders last night.(watch that Vancouver/Colorado game?)
by hockeydekefreak on Mar 10, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Saw the highlights
It made me feel slightly better about our loss to Vancouver. That game looked awesome. How good/evil are the Sedin"s? They are doing for Samuelsson what they did for Anson Carter a few years ago. They made Anson millions of dollars. I don’t even know if he is still in the league.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on On the Forecheck
Related FanShots on On the Forecheck
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
About Me
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats and analysis.
Got a question or a suggestion? Feel free to email the.forechecker@gmail.com.
Named by Sports Media Challenge as a Top 10 NHL Blog
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
