What will Nashville's defense look like next season?
Budget constraints are a way of life with the Nashville Predators, and given the likely departure of high-salary blueliners like Dan Hamhuis and Denis Grebeshkov via free agency, what does that mean for the Preds' defense in 2010-11?
After the jump let's take a look and see what it looks like...
Under Contract
Weber & Suter are obviously top-caliber defenseman, while Kevin Klein struggled at times in a Top 4 role alongside Dan Hamhuis. Given his new 3-year contract, I'm guessing that Klein will get another shot at playing major ice time again this fall, while Sulzer's status is likely as a 3rd-pair/healthy scratch option.
Needing New Contracts
Francis Bouillon did pretty much everything one could ask for in filling Greg Zanon's old role, and should be resigned before July 1. Pencil him in on the 3rd-pair at even strength, and lots of PK work. If someone higher on the depth chart gets injured, Bouillon can fill in admirably as a stopgap.
Cody Franson is a restricted free agent, and put up excellent numbers in relatively limited ice time - the key there is that Barry Trotz put him in position to succeed. Looking at Behind the Net numbers, for example, Franson's impact on Goals For & Against in 5-on-5 play was tops on the Nashville defense, but he had the most favorable teammates on the ice with him, and faced the cushiest opposition.
The next step for Franson is keeping up the production while taking a step forward as an NHL regular, which is by no means guaranteed. After all, During the 2007-8 season another young defenseman put in a very similar performance to Franson's, with 17 points in 48 games. In the two years since, Ville Koistinen has only managed 45 games at the NHL level, and couldn't crack the Florida lineup after Thanksgiving.
The Holes
Assuming new contracts for Bouillon and Franson, that leaves the Preds with 6 legitimate NHL defensemen, but perhaps with a gap in the Top 4 category. Suter & Weber are locks, but between Bouillon, Klein and Franson there's a bit of risk assuming that your second pairing is all set.
Special teams is another area of concern. There's room to give Cody Franson more ice time on the power play, but a proven PP quarterback could solve an ongoing problem for Nashville. The PK is likely set with Bouillon, Klein, Suter & Weber getting the bulk of the action.
The Solutions
With pricey free agents off the menu, you're looking at guys like Teemu Laakso and perhaps Jonathan Blum getting some work with the Preds next season. Blum is drawing solid reviews for his professional and physical development, and might well make an impact in the Black & Blue this fall.
Expecting Ryan Ellis to make the jump from junior hockey to the NHL is probably a bit much, even with his superb resutls, so plan on him spending next season in Milwaukee.
One idea I'd like to see investigated would be to break up the Suter/Weber pairing on a regular basis, and allow each to anchor one of the top two pairings, going with a lineup like Klein/Weber, Suter/Franson, Bouillon/Sulzer. Often coaches prefer to match a lefty & righty defensemen within a given pair, which would yield something different like Bouillon/Weber, Suter/Klein, Sulzer/Franson.
In a pinch, you can always reunite Suter & Weber as needed, but perhaps having one of them on the ice for 35-40 minutes a game might serve Nashville better than having them both out there together for 20-25.
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Contract Numbers...
Dirk what are your thoughts regarding contract numbers for Franson, Bouillon, and Hornqvist?
I don’t think it’s possible to re-sign all three of those guys, plus the remaining guys necessary for a full roster- assuming I’m not putting outlandish numbers for those three. Regardless, I think it’s optimistic to expect both Franson and Bouillon to be re-signed at this point.
When I tried, I got to about $47 million. Admittedly, that’s without moving any forwards to free additional cap space.
by David Singleton on May 25, 2010 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
Found your original post Dirk...
http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2010/5/5/1459352/assembling-the-2010-11-nashville
From that, you’ve speculated (via CapGeek) that they have roughly $3 million to sign those three plus. You did think that Bouillon might sign for $850,000, and that seems a little low to me. Otherwise, we pretty much match.
I can’t even see where they could bring Blum up with only $3 million as Hornqvist will command roughly $2 million, and Franson $1 million. Blum already makes roughly $1 million (at the NHL level). Again, that’s not counting any of the other spots (backup tender, etc.).
Either the budget will have to go up, or David Poile has to find a taker for (and they agree to the move) for our veterans.
Hopefully, it’ll be a combination of both and Poile can truly begin improving this team now.
David Singleton w/ HockeyIndependent
by David Singleton on May 25, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
Expecting Ryan Ellis to make the jump from junior hockey to the NHL is probably a bit much, even with his superb resutls, so plan on him spending next season in Milwaukee.
It’s either OHL or NHL for Ellis, until the Spitfires get eliminated near the end of the season
Serves me right for writing something like this before heading out of town for several days, thanks for the correction!
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Ellis and next year
Because of his birthday, he is about 3 days too young to go pro and not stay in the NHL. Either the Preds or stay in the OHL. No time in Milwaukee.

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