Your 2010 Nashville Predators free agency cheat sheet
July 1st (Thursday) is the opening of the National Hockey League's free agent frenzy, and after the Jason Arnott/Dan Hamhuis trades, its expected that the Nashville Predators will be more active than in past years thanks to several salaries being cleared from the books.
After the jump, assessing where the Preds stand in regards to cap and roster space, budget, and who they might target come Thursday.
All financial and contractual information is via the fantastic CapGeek.com.
Pending Unrestricted Free Agents
Dustin Boyd, Denis Grebeshkov, Peter Olvecky, Dan Ellis, Dave Scatchard, Ben Eaves, Triston Grant, Ryan Maki, Nolan Yonkman, Hugh Jessiman, Ben Guite. Of these, expect only Yonkman, Maki, and possibly Jessiman to be retained to play in Milwaukee.
Pending Restricted Free Agents
Patric Hornqvist, Cody Franson, Ryan Parent, Mike Santorelli, Mark Dekanich, Robert Dietrich, and Teemu Laakso. The team has already qualified these players, meaning that if any team besides Nashville offered them a contract the Predators have the right to match the offer or be compensated via draft picks It remains to be seen for how much, but its pretty safe to assume all of these players will be re-signed.
Salary Cap Situation
The Predators currently have 17 (12 forwards, four defensemen, one goalie) players under contract at $38,891,667. Assuming that Patric Hornqvist, Cody Franson, and Ryan Parent are re-upped, that would probably put the number somewhere around $42 million (making 18 forwards, six defensemen), give or take a few hundred thousand. The Predators' internal budget comes in well below the $59.8 million salary cap, an educated guess being roughly $47.5 million. To summarize: I calculate Nashville having about $3.5-4 million to spend on July 1, even with financial constraints, assuming Parent/Franson sign for roughly 1M each, and Hornqvist 2-3.
Key Needs
With the departure of captain and number one center Jason Arnott, the most immediate need for the franchise became his replacement. Its doubtful that Colin Wilson can step into that void in one year, so a plug is needed for the hole in the Predators' top line.
Secondly, losing Dan Ellis to free agency could be a more serious loss than at first glance. Pekka Rinne, while usually spectacular, still suffered from bouts of inconsistency in 2009-10. Without Ellis on the bench to step in as needed, the Preds need to make a decision on whether or not the backup goalie is already in the system (Mark Dekanich or Chet Pickard), or on the open market.
Potential Targets
In regards to center, there are no true top-line pivots remaining on the market after the re-signing of Patrick Marleau. The Predators probably don't need one, though, as the goal in my mind would be to patch the hole until Colin Wilson is fully prepared to take on top line duties.
With that in mind, the best available options for this course are Matthew Lombardi and Vinny Prospal. Lombardi, 28, put up 53 points with the Phoenix Coyotes last year, mainly centering Shane Doan and the flavor of the month, while Prospal posted 58 points playing with superstar Marian Gaborik. Between the factors of age and durability, I'd go with Lombardi here. His expiring deal had a 1,816,666 cap hit, meaning that the Predators could likely sign him with room to spare for our next target...
...backup goalie. There are a couple schools of thought here. 1) that the Preds are OK, and able to rely on a rookie to play behind who Nashville has essentially deemed their franchise 'keeper, or 2) that a veteran is necessary in case of injury or prolonged spells of poor performance. I'm not entirely comfortable with Dekanich in Nashville for 82 games, meaning the Predators should take a look at one of Alex Auld, Michael Leighton, or Martin Biron. Of the three, Biron is the most experienced and reliable. A small raise from his previous contract with the Islanders would put him right under $1.5 million.
Conclusion
David Poile has put the Nashville Predators in a position to succeed this offseason - if the right strings are pulled. The specific personnel choices that I made above are not that important, just that some spending gets done to replace assets lost. With $3.5 million to spend on Thursday, what would you do?
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I would go after Ponikarovsky and take a flier on Tanguay. Those two could be had for ~$4M total and put them on a 2nd line with Wilson. Lombardi is in for a decent raise — his salary (not cap hit) was $2.35M last year and I’m not sold on him… everything caught fire in the desert last spring.
If they really want to go cheap, they could offer Prospal instead of Poni. They will likely be able to get him and Tanguay for $2.5M total and not be committed long term, and Prospal can play center as well. Frolov might be nice as well, but he would use up all of that $3.5-4M himself and he’s not exactly coming off a banner year.
There just aren’t any great centermen available this year.
It’s funny you mention Lombardi as he is a very serious target for the Preds.
Also, don’t be surprised to see Koivu in wearing a Preds sweater down the road…
by Smitty's Rosy Red Cheeks on Jun 29, 2010 2:48 PM EDT reply actions
Wouldn't Koivu rather go to the Wild?
And play with his bro? I think that more likely. They have the money to spend, unless they blow it all on Kovalchuk.
goalies
i like the idea of playing pickard, or to a lesser extent dekanich, as the backup. It’ll cost less and seeing nhl action could be good for their development. Also there are usually a few free agent, or easy trade, goalies left during the season in case the rookies aren’t cutting it.
I’d like to see us give Pickard/Deks their chance. Pickard being a 1st rounder 2 years ago — gotta be about time for NHL action. Save the money for our offensive needs.
Prospal seems like he’s been on our radar for a couple years…. That’d be fine by me.
What about guys like Comrie or Metropolit? Any other realistic options?
Backup goalie
Besides the fact that he is less heralded than most, why is there is so much hesitance to give Dekanich a shot at as the backup? If you look at his save percentages over his college and AHL career, it averages out to something above .920, which is outstanding. Excluding his freshman year, when he only played 5 games, his lowest season save % was last year with .914…still very solid.
Good question. Those are pretty decent numbers.
by Hockey Hillbilly on Jun 29, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Dietrich Qualifying Offer
Dietrich did sign a 3 year contract without clause on 06/08/2010 with the Adler Mannheim of the Deutsche Liga (Germany). Without clause means he doesn’t have an out for the AHL/NHL from what I have gathered.

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