Breaking down faceoff winning percentage by NHL teams

by Dirk Hoag on Jun 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 4 comments

Richard Wolowicz - Getty Images

A typical hockey game features more than 50 faceoffs, but only a few teams can turn that skill into a significant competitive advantage.

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Over the long course of the NHL season, faceoff winning percentages naturally gravitate towards 50% (this season's range went from #1 San Jose at 55.6% to Edmonton's 46.4%).

A wrinkle can be added to this analysis, however, by looking at the performance of teams when split by various situations. For instance, teams on the Power Play win roughly 55% of faceoffs, and thus Shorthanded teams win 45%. And as we know, when a team gets a power play chance, the clock is ticking - losing a faceoff and having to chase down the puck for 10-15 seconds can burn away precious time.

Follow after the jump for a look at how teams across the league fared on the faceoff dot, with an extra level of detail you usually don't see...

The table below reflects all faceoffs from the 2009-10 NHL season, broken down by teams on the Power Play, at Even Strength, and Shorthanded. The "Weighted Performance" column reflects the variation in that workload, and shows the percentage of faceoffs that each team won, as compared to what they should have won based on the balance of PP/EV/SH opportunities (i.e., Atlanta's performance of 101.9% means they won, in total, 1.9% more faceoffs than expected).

Team	PP %	EV %	SH %	Weighted Performance
Anaheim Ducks	50.9%	48.6%	42.3%	96.2%
Atlanta Thrashers	50.5%	51.7%	46.1%	101.9%
Boston Bruins	52.3%	53.7%	45.1%	105.3%
Buffalo Sabres	56.8%	47.0%	50.9%	97.1%
Carolina Hurricanes	49.7%	48.3%	45.4%	96.2%
Columbus Blue Jackets	57.0%	50.6%	48.1%	102.1%
Calgary Flames	50.9%	49.0%	38.7%	96.1%
Chicago Blackhawks	61.2%	51.8%	47.1%	104.7%
Colorado Avalanche	55.4%	47.1%	43.6%	95.4%
Dallas Stars	52.0%	48.5%	41.0%	96.0%
Detroit Red Wings	55.1%	50.9%	47.6%	101.9%
Edmonton Oilers	51.3%	47.0%	37.2%	92.7%
Florida Panthers	60.8%	49.7%	38.9%	99.6%
Los Angeles Kings	54.8%	50.1%	50.1%	101.3%
Minnesota Wild	56.5%	52.1%	49.0%	104.5%
Montreal Canadiens	57.0%	49.4%	45.4%	99.6%
New Jersey Devils	56.8%	48.6%	47.7%	98.7%
Nashville Predators	48.6%	49.5%	47.3%	98.2%
New York Islanders	52.7%	48.5%	42.1%	96.4%
New York Rangers	53.1%	49.2%	44.9%	98.3%
Ottawa Senators	57.2%	49.1%	43.7%	98.8%
Philadelphia Flyers	54.1%	50.5%	43.3%	100.2%
Phoenix Coyotes	53.6%	50.0%	46.7%	100.1%
Pittsburgh Penguins	58.7%	48.5%	44.8%	98.5%
San Jose Sharks	60.8%	54.9%	55.0%	111.3%
St. Louis Blues	53.6%	49.2%	42.7%	97.8%
Tampa Bay Lightning	53.6%	52.8%	42.5%	103.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs	53.5%	51.0%	46.1%	101.5%
Vancouver Canucks	59.1%	51.3%	44.0%	102.7%
Washington Capitals	52.6%	51.2%	52.7%	103.0%

Note: I'm trying a sexy new feature where you can click the headings, and sort by the column of your choice. Give it a whirl...

What jumps out first and foremost is the outstanding performance of the San Jose Sharks, noted over at Behind the Net as one of the top faceoff teams in recent years. The fact that they won a greater percentage of their faceoffs while shorthanded as opposed to even strength is particularly stunning. Yes, I'm sure they put their best guys out in those situations, but they did well across all categories, so it's not like their skill players were poor on the dot, and the best faceoff men were all on the PK.

Boston, Chicago and Minnesota all did pretty well on the dot as well, particularly the league-leading 61.2% on the power play by the Blackhawks.

On the opposite end of that scale, part of the disappointing performance of the Nashville Predators' power play can be ascribed to their league-worst faceoff winning percentage on the PP. Is there an opportunity for Marcel Goc, the team's best faceoff man last season, to start getting some time on that unit?

As for the Edmonton Oilers? Yikes, 25th on the PP, 30th at even strength, and 30th shorthanded. They were, far and away, the worst faceoff team in the league.

The difference in faceoff performance from the best teams in the league to the worst has been estimated to be worth roughly 3 wins within a given season - not a huge amount, but certainly significant. Turning around a team's fortunes usually involves making a series of incremental improvements, rather than a few blockbusters, so paying further attention to winning faceoffs (particularly on special teams) could be of benefit to a few teams on the list above.

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Comments

I'm always a fan of...

sorting options. I like it!

NHL 10 for XBox 360 is like paying $60 for bipolar disorder...
Go Predators!!!

by Poiju on Jun 7, 2010 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

The Sharks are stockpiling good faceoff guys. Malhotra, Pavelski, and Nichol are all way up there in the percentages.

On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
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by Chris Burton on Jun 7, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions

Smithers

I see Smithson, winning 30 of 48 face-offs (62.5%) , and compare that number with Arnott, winning 55 of 115 (47.8%), and my game-by-game impressions are confirmed. Of Leggy (25 of 67, 37.3%), the less said the better.

by Hockey Hillbilly on Jun 7, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

great stuff

happy to be wrong on the fact i predicted we would miss the playoffs w/ 2 main concerns.one was young d-corp and they played rather well. sorry to be right on the fact losing fiddler, nichol, bonk concerned me on the dot. while it does help explain our terrible PP the fact that we were 9th best on faceoffs on the PK destroys the logic somewhat since our PK was worse than our PP.

by predswilrule on Jun 7, 2010 8:37 PM EDT reply actions