Tuesday's news: Preds can't shake the "underrated" tag

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 17, 2010 8:01 AM EDT

As long as we're sharing favorite photos...

As we welcome two new authors into the fold here at OtF, things are really starting to ramp up even though we're a month away from training camp. It sounds like we'll have another big announcement next week, so stay tuned.

Today we have a renewal of an annual ritual - preseason media predictions for failure in Nashville (of course, considering their history of consistent playoff appearances, maybe that's a good omen). We also have a look at how J.P. Dumont's trip to the doghouse back in March affected the team, and a collection of oddball reactions to the lack of a Tomas Kaberle trade in Toronto...

Predators News

The Hockey News 2010-11 NHL regular season predictions: No. 10
THN pegs the Predators at 10th in the West, focusing solely on personnel changes and ignoring the growth of young players like Patric Hornqvist, Colin Wilson, and Cody Franson.

MayorsManor.com: Two Minutes in the Box with... Bobby Ryan
The Ducks winger (who still waits on a new contract) says good things about one Nashville defenseman from the Vancouver Olympics...

Where Is Horny? - Predlines
Nathan's getting antsy over the Hornqvist situation...

Reassessing The "Predator Way": J.P. Dumont In The Doghouse - PredsBlog
Sam argues that Barry Trotz got more out of J.P. Dumont by asking less of him. There are some problems when you draw conclusions from team-based Corsi numbers (when a team is leading, for example, they tend to take fewer shots, while the trailing team fires everything on net, skewing the data) but the Dumont question is a huge one this fall. He could play anywhere from the 1st to the 4th lines.

Cogen and Henry Team Up to Run Nashville Properties " Venues Today
A nice background piece on the new men at the top of the Predators organization, particularly focusing on Jeff Cogen's background with promoting Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus out of Nashville.

George: The circus is back in town - Nashville City Paper
Another commentary lauds Tom Cigarran for having the common sense to recognize that common sense alone wasn't enough to run the club - he needed to bring in proven performers.

Around the NHL

McKeen's Hockey Prospects - Tired Teams on Back-To-Back Nights
Gus gives my NHL Super Schedule the Emeril treatment; he gives it a "BAM" and kicks it up a few notches... wonderful stuff here that's worth checking out.

Red Wings Blogger Roundtable: Day 1 - Winging It In Motown
Detroit bloggers are confident that the Red Wings will recapture the Central, barring another season filled with injuries.

Blackhawks defense will remain solid in 2010-11 - USATODAY.com
The one thing Chicago has been able to keep mostly intact is the blueline, writes Kevin Allen.

After Kaberle deadline, solutions for Leafs get downright nutty - Puck Daddy
Toronto may have kept Tomas Kaberle, but many Leafs writers have lost their minds.

Habs' Strongest Position of Depth Now Its Weakest - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Has Montreal overreacted, and gutted what was previously a strong point of their team?

Expectations Surrounding Young Defenseman - Blueshirt Banter
While analyzing the Rangers defense, this post takes an interesting approach in the use of Behind the Net stats like Corsi & Quality of Competition.

mc79hockey.com - Unfocused Rambling on Labour Issues
Tyler looks ahead to a possible doomsday scenario in 2012 as the owners battle with the bumbling NHLPA.

Whale of a time for the Hartford faithful at quirky celebration - Puck Daddy
Amid all the speculation about Winnipeg and Quebec City, we often forget that Hartford used to be a loyal NHL city as well.

A Hockey Toast To Elvis " On Frozen Blog
The King died 33 years ago yesterday, and OFB has a special tribute.

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Comments

I’m not buying in any way this whole Detroit winning the Central business. They didn’t lose anyone, sure – but Nick Lidstrom is 40, they re-signed Todd Bertuzzi, and their only free agent acquisitions were Mike Modano and Ruslan Salei, who’s aggregate age is like 193. Additionally, I’m not convinced Jimmy Howard is the real deal.

On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.

by Chris Burton on Aug 17, 2010 8:32 AM EDT reply actions

Completely Agree

In fact, I’ve stated more than once that I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t even make the top 8. I still expect them to, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t. I’m not impressed with their offseason moves either, and given how they played when injuries occurred last year, I would venture to guess that they’re going to have to remain incredibly healthy all year and have Howard avoid a sophomore slump in order to be successful next season.

To me, the division is wide open for the Hawks, Wings and Preds.

by Predaceous on Aug 17, 2010 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Is there such a thing as a non-team corsi?

I also calculated Dumont’s Corsi Rel, scaled to his decreasing TOI. The results were more or less the same. I just presented the shot data in the chart as a contrast to the team goals not changing, not as an absolute indication of Dumont’s talent.

by Sam Page on Aug 17, 2010 10:52 AM EDT reply actions

What I’m referring to is the comparison between the 38 games where he got lesser ice time, to the 36 games in which he got more. If I read correctly (always a dodgy proposition), you’re saying that in those 38 games, the total Corsi figure was +54, and in the 36 “doghouse” games, it was +19?

One factor that can skew those numbers is whether the Preds led or trailed in those contests. Typically, teams that fall behind start throwing lots of pucks at the net, while the leader is more content to dump & change. That can mess with the numbers fairly substantially. I think there’s an option to screen those Time On Ice queries to look at the “close” action (teams within 1 goal of each other) to minimize that effect, if I can find it I’ll email it to you.

I don’t disagree with your conclusions, J.P. may well be a guy who is best used in as offensively-leveraged a role as possible, i.e. lots of PP time but less at evens. Based on what Seth has said about him bulking up this summer, it will be interesting to watch what he brings to training camp.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 17, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Likewise, if the team is behind later in the game, the bench will get shortened. If Dumont was being used as a 4th liner, then his line would not be used as much, which naturally would lead to lessened ice time as well as fewer scoring opportunities. Yeah, there are lots of factors to be considered.

by OddManRush on Aug 17, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions