How much patience should the Predators have with Barry Trotz?
by Chris Burton on Aug 2, 2010 9:45 AM EDT
in Discussions
Email
Print
Being a Nashville sports fan has more than a few perks, not the least of which is local teams' longevity and staying power when it comes to the head coaching position. Across the Cumberland River from the Bridgestone Arena, the Tennessee Titans are home to the dean of NFL coaches, Jeff Fisher, at 14 years and counting. Vanderbilt University basketball has seen Kevin Stallings draw up x's and o's for 11 years, now, and their football program just had head coach Bobby Johnson resign after an eight year stint in charge of the Commodores.
At 501 Broadway, the Nashville Predators remain under the helm of 48 year old, Dauphin, Manitoba native Barry Trotz. He has coached the Preds for their entire existence - 11 years, which makes him the 2nd longest tenured coach in the league today after Buffalo's Lindy Ruff. Trotz takes a 411-371-60-60 record into the 2010-11 season, with 6 non-playoff seasons and five campaigns in which Nashville fell in the first round.
There's no doubt that 'Trotzy' is one of the better coaches in the league today, and I'm immensely proud of his work here - but for how much longer should ownership put up with postseason mediocrity? We'll delve a bit further into the question after the jump.
UPDATE: Sam over at the truly excellent PredsBlog takes a look at much the same question, using this post as a bit of a guide. Give it a read, as Sam is churning out some great work over there and this is no different.
Over four hundred wins. Currently one of only four teams to win 40 games five years in a row (Devils, Sharks, and Red Wings being the others). One Jack Adams nomination, which led to a second place finish. Three 100 point campaigns. Until 2008-9, the Predators had qualified for the playoffs four consecutive years with teams that were typically closer to the salary cap floor than ceiling. For a franchise that has always operated under budget constraints and with financial issues, Barry Trotz's achievements have indeed been impressive.
Ultimately, however, an NHL coach is judged on his postseason success, which the Predators have had next to none of. The playoff failures are many and not worth rehashing here, but they reside in the back of all our minds. While certainly there have been extenuating circumstances such as suspensions to Alexander Radulov and Scott Hartnell, or injuries to the likes of Patric Hornqvist and Tomas Vokoun; these do not overshadow the inability to convert on power play after power play (it is worth noting, though, that Trotz will take an increased role with the man advantage in the coming year), or the difficulty of winning a road game in April.
Barry Trotz is often credited with making more out of less than any coach in the league. To some extent this is true, but its also an underestimation of the quality of team he's iced on several occasions. Consider the 06-07 team, which consisted of players such as Paul Kariya, Kimmo Timonen, Peter Forsberg, Marek Zidlicky, Scott Hartnell, Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Jason Arnott, healthy Steve Sullivan, Alexander Radulov, and others. On paper, that is a winning squad. And win they did - in the regular season. 110 points later, they lost to fifth-seeded San Jose in five games.
To under-appreciate Coach Trotz's work in Nashville would very much be the wrong thing to do. On the other hand, overvaluing his contributions would also be a mistake. Though the Predators have repeatedly defied the odds by succeeding in the regular season with a hard working, cheap roster, they've never once come close to the Stanley Cup. It'd be one thing if they kept squeaking into the playoffs on the last day of the year, but Nashville has been by far the most successful 'recent' expansion team (Minnesota, Columbus, and Atlanta), and have contended for the Central Division title at least twice.
It becomes an increasingly difficult situation. The Nashville Predators are set to field perhaps the most promising team in their history, and expectations are justifiably higher than ever. Expectations are all for naught, though, if you can't come through when it really counts.
In conclusion, I can't say that I have a suitable solution. I'm willing to give Barry Trotz at the very least another two seasons as Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist, Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Pekka Rinne hit their prime playing years. But what about you? Just how much longer do you think the Nashville Predators should let Barry Trotz figure out how to win in the playoffs?
To keep up with all of our coverage of the Nashville Predators, you can subscribe to the RSS feed, follow us on Twitter (@Forechecker & @predatweeter), or catch the site on Facebook.
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
There is no one on the horizon that can do more with what they have been dealt than Trotz. He has taken what he has been given every year and gotten the most out of teams that don’t look competitive on paper. After the Preds go deep in the playoffs this year, the question will be a moot point.
by Preds On The Glass on Aug 2, 2010 10:01 AM EDT reply actions
Worst case scenario...
give him three more seasons, assuming improvement. If we miss the playoffs again, time to look at new blood. I really still am reluctant to say that though, because are they going to find someone better or someone worse?
Like Predaceous mentions below, the assistant should go first, then work our way up if our team still doesn’t get any further.
Agreed
There aren’t too many great coaches out there like him, and luring them to Nashville is another feat. Trotz wins with what he has. Now if we spend at the salary cap every year and still flame out in the 1st round the next couple years, yeah, we’ll find someone. But until I’m convinced there’s someone better out there who wouldn’t bolt us for Montreal, Toronto, or the like… I’m more than fine with Trotz.
by ExcellenceThroughGuesswork on Aug 2, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
There is no one on the horizon that can do more with what they have been dealt than Trotz.
Agreed, the relevant question is who would come to Nashville and do a better job than Trotz. An unfortunate comparison is the San Diego Chargers when they fired Marty Schottenheimer after his failures in the playoffs and changes to the assistant coach roster. He was replaced with Norv Turner and few people would say that Turner is a better coach than Schottenheimer. There may be “better” and/or “proven” coaches out there but I don’t see them coming to Nashville.
Personally, I am pleased by the loyalty of the franchises and fan bases in Nashville. It is indicative of a really positive side of the city.
I really don't know if anything sums up America better. It is simultaneously preposterous, incrediably laughable, impressive, charming, redicoulous, expensive, overpopulated, wonderful, American. -Sir Stephen Fry on visiting the Iron Bowl
I don't disagree
…with the conclusion that Trotz does far more with less from a cap management standpoint. He represents continuity and when you have the kind of turnover in players that goes w/being a small market team this really counts for something.
But to the original question, are expectations being “under-sold” a little too much my sense is yes. While it’s been the case for at least the last 6 seasons that the Western Conference top 8 is stacked, I would suggest to some degree that the lower expecations might not be correct. The series against Chicago this past spring was winnable, as was the Detroit series a couple years back. And the team that went up against San Jose w/Forsberg, etc should not have lost.
Certainly David Poile and the scouting department are probably among the shrewdest judges of talent in the league. They manage the cap better than any other team. But my sense is Nashville needs to stop being satisfied with just making the playoffs and wonder if some of that shouldn’t start in the locker room.
Personally
I think he should have been fired after the 2006-2007 playoff debacle. In fact, I truly believe that the only reason he wasn’t was because the team was being sold. He’s redeemed himself nicely since then because no one can argue that he did a good job of keeping the team competitive despite a fire sale.
Right now I think that the problem may lie with his assistants, not with him. I’ll remove Peterson from the prior statement so you know who I’m really focusing on. I still can’t understand why Horachek continues to be under contract with the Predators. The Preds need someone who can effectively direct the offense and the power play. Horachek hasn’t gotten it done, not to mention the fact that the decisions he makes (Sully on the point, mixing up lines) when the Preds go on the power play leave you scratching your head.
I’m glad Trotz said he’ll be taking a more active role in the power play, but that just begs the question… if you’re doing more of your assistant’s work, why is he still your assistant?
D
Excellent final point.
I’m a softy when it comes to keeping Trotz around. It would certainly be worth trying a new assistant staff before getting rid of a man that other players want to play for!
NHL 10 for XBox 360 is like paying $60 for bipolar disorder...
Go Predators!!!
Off Topic SBNation mini-rant
Sorry for this, but can I just say that I REALLY hate that SBNation routes you away from here to their main homepage when you login?
ARRRGGGHH!
Okay. Rant over. Back to my regularly scheduled comment.
That won’t happen when you log in via the ‘Log In’ button at the very top, extreme right hand corner of your screen. It redirects me to the page I was on.
On the Forecheck: preaching the Predators' gospel to the unwashed masses.
by Chris Burton on Aug 2, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you, Chris.
And an excellent discussion topic today, Sir!
by ajinnashville on Aug 2, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
If Trotz has a hubristic bone in his body, I've never seen it.
And that’s why he’s the perfect coach for Nashville, both with respect to the sensibilities of the local culture here as well as the franchise’s economic reality.
I have ALWAYS supported him and never wanted to see him fired. He is a rare kind of person AND coach and only now in the past two seasons has he gotten the tools in the players’ mindset AND ability that he needs to truly apply his style of hockey night in and night out.
I think you HAVE to give him at least three more years to build upon that, and I believe that ownership will. As Buddy said from the outset, I think the Preds are going deep this season, and this discussion will be moot.
If special teams turns things around this season (and they MUST), this will further indemnify Trotz from any serious scrutiny.
i have always
been a big supporter of Trotz. as said by others i like his doing the most with what he has mentality. he seems to understand the Nashville fan base. also i’m not sure who would replace him if he left. as for the assistant coaches mainly Horachek, maybe there is someone in Milwaukee who could replace him. also i’ll throw this out there, is there a former player who might be interested in taking over as an assistant coach?. maybe not but you never know..
I believe a guy like...
Marty Gelinas will come into that role eventually, and be a great assistant, and possibly a head coach in this league some day.
by ajinnashville on Aug 2, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as Poile continues to field the same type of team and Trotz continues to get as much out of them as he does, they can both stay and I’ll continue to go to games. I love The Predator Way. I think the gut wrenching way they got bounced this spring will be just the thing to spur them from “glad to be here, we consider our season to be a success” to a “we’re not done yet” attitude.
They must keep Mitch Korn also. But the other assistants in charge of special teams play should have had their leashes snapped in the offseason. New blood in this area would be welcome. Since Trotz is saying he is going to get more active in this area, isn’t that a direct criticism of the folks in charge of it and blaming them for the failure? If you are going to place blame, make them accountable.
How about the idea of sending coaches down to the AHL for a bit and calling up a replacement? :-)
Assistant coaches.
would it be possible to release one or more of them without sacrificing trotz? whenever i hear about the contracts its always that they have extended the coaching staffs contracts. I don’t know it they contracts are separate or bundled together. also i can’t remember hearing of assistant coaches being let go and not the head coach.
"It's gonna be fun on the bun."
Yes
They let Paul Gardner go a few years ago in favor of Horachek.
Counterpoint
We all know he is a good systems coach, preaches defensive awareness,
gets alot out of his charges.
The bottom line is he has never gotten anywhere in the playoffs.
With the team for 2010-11, there is no reason for that to continue.
You can’t fire the players. Another playoff exit in round one, the 6th in 7 years, would be unacceptable. Maybe another guy and another message has to come in.
In the NFL, Dungy was great, but just a change to Gruden won a Super Bowl.
In Detroit, the post-bowman Dave Lewis was awesome in the regular season, but had to give way to Babcock after too many disappointments.
Maybe Trotz can win someplace else, and maybe we can win with somebody else,
but another first round disappointment is just another testament that Trotz in Nashville can’t win beyond game 82.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Aug 2, 2010 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
THE OLD SWITCHEROO
i vote we keep trotzy for the regular season and then switch him and crispy for the playoffs.
I like that Idea!
Its to bad we can’t pull that one off. But I think Crispy is too tall…LOL
Trotz is a good B level Coach
Barry has done a good job bringing the team to were it is today. I will admit he has made the most out of several years of B level or lower talent. I also agree with some of the prior posts on not understanding why we have not made a few assistant coaching changes in the past.
But Barry and his system isn’t conducive for top level NHL players. I would really like to hear (off the record) what some of the top talent that has played for him and left really think of him as a coach. It takes very special players to excel in his system. When Barry won the Calder with the Pirates I believe he had 3 player that scored over 30 goals that year I don’t think any of them made a great splash in the NHL.. Brunette Has had a good career, but he is not splash material.
I think he is a good B level coach his system can elevate low level talent but has a tendency to bring the top tier talent down to that level. In my opinion by Over Coaching Them. If the Goal is to remain a 2nd level team with mid range talent then fine keep him. If the goal is to win the cup then find a coach (Brent maybe?) that knows how to let “A” level talent play and bring the “B” talent up to complement them.
Agree completely
Trotz is the ideal coach for an expansion team or a team content to ‘overachieve’ just to get to the playoffs. We are beyond that now. Give him one more year, with likely the best team he has ever had (outside of the 2007 disaster), and make a change if he doesn’t get it done.
Ron Wilson, Jacques Martin, Dave Lewis, and even Jacques Lemaire (in 1998 with NJ, but perhaps will repeat itself this year in 2010!) only failed in the playoffs so many times, and gave way to guys who took their teams further.
We should not be the only team that is just happy to get there, and be satisfied with the coach because of it.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Aug 2, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
players such as kariya, arnott, dumont, sullivan all had the production increase from recent previous years when they joined the team.
The preds don’t have an abundance of “A” level talent to be able to just let them play and see success that way. if the preds had the talent level similar to that of the caps, pen, sharks, or last season’s blackhawks then i would agree with you. I just don’t see the preds currently having the ability to win on talent alone.
"It's gonna be fun on the bun."
Well.....
I cant see were any of them had Career Years after coming here. And If they expect Old Vets to come here and magically become 40 goal scorers and carry the team, them someone in the front office needs a wake-up call. This isn’t Detroit. We have drafted low enough we should have a few top level offensive stars
David Legwand…….Bust
Brian Finley…………..Bust
Scott Hartnell………..Always in the Dog house …Gone..But not Forgotten
Dan Hamhuis……….A good one …but gone now
Scottie Upshaw…….Let him go…..will be a star
Ryan Suter……………Our Star..See a pattern here yet
Radulov…………………Gone..Also always in the dog house..messed in the head
R Parent……………….Gone ..but back again..wait and see
Either we cant pick good “A” level forwards or they just don’t flourish in this system. D-men on the other hand seem to become stars
Go through the list of Player that have played for the Preds. I cant find 1 Forward that we drafted and brought through our system (Except for Hörnqvist, and that was pure luck) That has made an positive impact on this team and the ones that could or might have, we let go.
We now have Wilson and Little Boom Boom two top NCAA forwards, I would bet a Steak Dinner a Ruth’s Chris steakhouse, If Trotz is still around in five years these guys will be busts or future stars for another team. And I would be happy to Loose that bet.
well if you look at their stats their numbers were on decline, including contract years, then they come here and increase their production. the preds have gotten better with drafting offensive players with radulov, hornqvist, wilson. But still the main point is we don’t have the talent to win on talent alone, so we need great coaching.
"It's gonna be fun on the bun."
Trotz is not the problem
game in and game out our team seems to be the best prepared for the opposition. this year we got our first playoff road win. 5on5 the preds were 12th in the league in goals for/against. the teams biggest problem year in and year out is powerplay, which Trotz and pretty much every body here as addressed, and Trotz has said he would take care of. Remember he took over the powerplay in the playoffs and we finally got that one ppg. Trotz is one of the best systems coaches available, and since the preds will never win a cup by just using an over abundance of talent, i.e. Blackhawks, we need a coach capable of getting a team to play above the potential of the talent on the team.
"It's gonna be fun on the bun."
Also, isn't part of the problem
is that the Preds play in arguably the toughest division in the NHL? Two O6 teams, perennially playoff winners as well as the fighty Blues, and the sometimes surprising Blue Jackets (ok, maybe not them so much ;). The Preds haven’t ever won the division; and I think that’s the next step. I think with Chicago’s reshuffling, Detroit’s aging, Blues’ lack of improvement except goalie…it looks good for that.
Two previous posts
“….got our first road win…”
“…haven’t ever won the division…”
We’ve been good enough for the playoffs 5 out the last six years, pushed the division winners Detroit (and this year, Chicago) more often than not, and yet there Trotz gets off scot free for not getting us past game 6 of round 1.
I agree withMost fans here, he is a great systems coach, and deserves a world of credit for building Nashville up faster than their expansion siblings (Minny has three playoff appearances only, but also two series wins, the only other team with some success; Atlanta and Columbus have yet to win a playoff game).
After our first loss in 2004, didn’ t you expect that a playoff road win or a central title should be around the corner? Our growth curve has flattened out. And Trotz bears some responsibility. For all the credit he gets for the good things,
He’s the one who married Erat and Legwand for years despite the fact they weren’t really making each other better, he’s the one who put out Devries and Zidlicky and Hamhuis and Klein in defensive situations where they seemed overmatched, or kept puttint Timonen out against Marleau, and failed to really adapt when things didn’t work, he’s the one who put Radulov on the third line, played him inconsistently, and failed to elevate him as quickly as he could have (maybe the same will repeat with Wilson?), seemed to get nothing out of Peverley, put Wilson on a line with Scatchard, cut Dumont’s minutes but not Sullivan or Arnott for the same disappointing play, juggles lines more than most, etc etc.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Aug 3, 2010 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Nobody's perfect...
mistakes were made. Hopefully he learns from them. But if you got someone better in mind that would be willing to take over, I’m all ears.
A better question...
Might be, “How much patience should Trotz have with the Predators?”…although I think, really, everyone is happy.
But realistically, I can’t think of a single coach that could improve upon Trotz’s work in Nashville, past or present.
The “problem” as I see it is that the Preds have been operating noticeably closer to the salary floor than to the salary cap.
No one can do what Trotz has done, and will continue to do, in Nashville. Trotz is a mastermind, and this whole organization is built around his coaching style (defense first; another coach, of comparable skill but a different style, would flounder in Nashville).
Gelinas for Power Play Coach
I have said it before on other boards, and I will say it again. Put Gelinas as the pwoer play coach. It makes so much more sense than having Horachek flounder in that position once again. I hope with the likes of Kostitsyn, Lombardi, Hornqvist and Wilson, our power play will be superior. None of that Sully on the point crap like last year. Put Sully a little in front of the pipes and let him score on the tic tac toe passing or Hornqvist on the rebound. Have Franson, Suter, Parent, and of course the Beast, Weber, fire lasers from the point. Keep the opposition honest and then attack full force right in their heart with the aforementioned forwards. Hell, put Goc out there too, he can score those loose puck goals like Hornqvist. Damn, when is this season gonna start. I’m losing my mind in the drudgery that is baseball. Ugh!
by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 2, 2010 11:59 PM EDT reply actions
Total Outsider View Here
But, I’d fire every single member of the organization and trade away 95% of the players before getting rid of Trotz.
I know I can’t really say that it’s all the coach’s credit when they do well and none of his blame when they underperform in the playoffs, but finishing off a playoff series is one of the hardest things to do in sports.
For all of the talk about Trotz’s assumed inability to get the most out of top-tier talent, you may be absolutely right (although I don’t think you are), but if the Preds fire Trotz, is that going to free enough money on their books to buy some top-tier talent? If finishing off a playoff series is one of the hardest things to do, drafting and developing true top-flight talent is a tier just below that. Yeah, there are lots of talent busts there, but how many other teams, given their draft positions have done a better job? Nashville tries to draft fits for the system. Some players can hack it while others can’t. Without Trotz as coach, they might get a big-headed superstar and then they’ll be a team that’s not outperforming expectations, but at least they’ll have a big fish for their small pond.
I have a feeling replacing Trotz at this point would lead to a 2nd-round exit, leading people to immediately think replacing Trotz was good idea, followed by several years of decline while all the most stubborn of people say good riddance while another small-market team that’s gobbled him up begins consistently performing above their payroll.
by J.J. from Kansas on Aug 3, 2010 12:38 AM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
About OTF
Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.
Follow @Forechecker
Got a question, a suggestion, or are interested in advertising here to reach thousands of Nashville Predators fans? Feel free to email the.forechecker@gmail.com.
Featured Stories
Are you new here? Read this first!
Check us out on iTunes!
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
- Devils eliminate Rangers in Game 6, ending fear of the past, setting course for the future
- Adam Henrique sends New Jersey Devils to Stanley Cup Final with OT goal vs. Rangers (VIDEO)
