Nashville Predators 2010-11 Season Preview: Patric Hornqvist

by Chris Burton on Aug 30, 2010 11:30 AM EDT in Nashville Predators Player Profiles

In the weeks leading up to the upcoming season, we'll preview the Nashville Predators on a player-by-player basis, examining their role on the squad and expectations relative to capabilities. So come along for the ride as we look ahead to 2010-11, from Andersson to Wilson. Next up: Patric Hornqvist.

While we've already looked at pleasant surprises such as Francis Bouillon, Cody Franson, and Marcel Goc, the greatest surprise of all was arguably a player who at one time carried high hopes, but had fallen out of favor after a disappointing 2008-09. That changed, though, with a revelatory performance which saw him not only lead the team in goals, but out-work and out-hustle everyone on the roster on his way to being voted team MVP.

After scoring 30 goals and signing a new contract, expectations for Patric Hornqvist are higher than for anyone else on the roster. Indeed, he scored the most goals in a season by a home-grown Predator, and did it all with the lowest average ice time among 30-goal scorers.

With the departure of Jason Arnott, more of the goal scoring burden falls to the Swedish winger in 2010-11. After the jump, we'll take a look at where he might fit and how he'll adapt to a more significant role.

Patric Hornqvist

#27 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 5-11

Weight: 186

Born: Jan 01, 1987

Role

First line winger. He was restricted to more of a secondary role last year, but his ascendancy means that Barry Trotz will increase his ice time and responsibilities. Additionally, he'll be the first choice right wing for the Predators' power play. Hornqvist and Shea Weber were just about the only things that went right on the man advantage, so expect more of the same.

Expectations

In short - to prove that last year was not an aberration, but the beginning of the norm. If he does not score at least 25 or 30 goals again, then the coaching staff (and fans) will have reason to be disappointed. By giving him a 3 year deal, David Poile took a leap of faith. Its up to Patric to reward him.

Contract

Three years, $9.25 million. Is it overpayment? Not so fast, my friends.

Previously...

In 80 games (sufferingin Game 81), he scored 30 goals to go with 21 assists, and led the team in +/-(+18) and shots on goal (275). A broken hand suffered on April 7 kept him mostly out of the playoffs.

Prediction

I'm not so optimistic as to say that he could score fifty; but with better linemates, an improved season is not out of the question. If he manages to avoid Shea Weber's slap shot (a tall order), I see Hornqvist scoring 38 goals to go along with 26 assists.

Poll

How many goals will Patric Hornqvist score in 2010-11?

0-10

0 votes

11-20

6 votes

21-30

68 votes

31-40

100 votes

41-50

12 votes

51+

4 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

what happened to the option 31-40 ?

by Dave_is_a_killer on Aug 30, 2010 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

oops

Its been added, thank you.

OtF: our captain can beat up your captain.
Bitter and Blue: if you can't beat 'em; buy 'em.

by Chris Burton on Aug 30, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd love to see 31+, but...

I had to vote for 21-30. With Arnott’s departure, Hornqvist loses someone that put pucks on net allowing for him to capitalize on rebounds. Until someone else is comfortable filling some of that void, I think it most realistic that the increased playing time will help offset that to allow for a near-repeat of last season, but not anywhere near 40 goals.

I see roughly 28 goals for Hornqvist.

I hope I’m very wrong. Given my history, the odds are in your favor. lol

David Singleton w/ HockeyIndependent

by David Singleton on Aug 30, 2010 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

BTW...

I liked your post about HockeyIndependent’s having the Preds at 11th in the West. Very well thought out and realistic, unlike the bloggers prediction.

About Hornqvist, if Trotz can get certain people to stray from their pass first, pass second mentality, I think Hornqvist will get at the very least 35 goals this year barring injury. I think having Sully/Lombardi/Hornqvist will be a skilled scoring line with plenty of speed and grit. Even if you put Hornqvist with Erat and Wilson, same thing but a more finesse scoring line. Very dangerous combos for the PP I hope.

by HardCorePredFan316 on Aug 30, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

gotta be erat

not sully if you want shots. sully and jp are the 2 nonest ( new urban hockey term) shooters on the team. plus erat is younger, faster and more engaged on a nightly and shift by shift basis.

by predswilrule on Aug 30, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Glad he's back and for 3 years!

I honestly thought he would get a 1 or 2 year deal. I am glad he signed for 3. I think he will perform like last year and he might eclipse the numbers he put up last season. And I am really glad he came back cuz I bought a game used stick of his at the Skate of the Union.

by preds4ever on Aug 30, 2010 7:18 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know that three years was the best fit, but apparently its what it took to get the deal done.

OtF: our captain can beat up your captain.
Bitter and Blue: if you can't beat 'em; buy 'em.

by Chris Burton on Aug 31, 2010 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Rebounds, tips, other

Since I keep reading the concern on this and other sites about how the loss of Arnott’s SOG will impact Patric, I thought I’d note that Patric scored zero goals off of Arnott rebounds last season. The closest thing to a rebound off an Arnott shot was in the 3/18 game against the Wild. On the PP, Arnott attempted a cross crease pass to a pinching Weber. (That is what it looks like to me, given the direction of the puck and Arnott’s reaction after the goal.) The pass hit Zidlicky and bounced below the goal. Hörnqvist picked the puck up below the goal, quickly moved it in front of the goal and stuffed it in.

Arnott did assist on 7 Hörnqvist goals – four on the PP. Six were primary assists – including the one against the Wild. Patric deflected 2 Arnott shots for goals – both in the 2/4 game against the Avs – remember Arnott’s hat trick that wasn’t. You can see two nice Tic-tac-toe goals if you look at Patric’s 6th (12/8 vs Van) and 9th (12/17 vs Edm 1st G) goals in the series Sam is doing – or on the Preds or NHL site. The other Arnott primary assist was on Patric’s 20th goal vs Phoenix on 1/21 where Patric shot and then put his own rebound in.

I’m not saying Arnott’s SOG will not be missed. I’m just pointing out that there seems to be a perception that Patric scored a fair share of his goals off of Arnott rebounds and that is not true.

By my count Patric scored 7 goals off of tips, 7 goals off of rebounds, 3 goals that are rebound-like, but not true rebounds (the Wild goal is an example), and 13 goals that were clearly not a rebound nor a tip. I think the last group is often overlooked and the thought is he scores only off of rebounds or tips. Whereas, I sort of see it as – when he is most productive he scores in multiple ways.

One major contribution I think Patric brought to the team last year that does not show up in stats and wasn’t mentioned in the article was screening the goalie on goals by his teammates. I’d like to know how many goals were scored with him screening the goalie.

I’m not going to make a prediction on how he’ll do this season. I’m just going to hope I enjoy his play as much this season as I did last season.

by Tappst on Aug 30, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Good summation Tappst...

I too have wondered where all the angst of “no Arnott” is coming from….mostly from bloggers and “analysts” that don’t watch the Preds and know little about them. I would think whomever lines up with Hornqvist will be lining up pepper the net considering they usually have a pretty clean look with Hammy screening the goalie.

by TitanPredBearFan on Aug 30, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know if I’ve seen any “angst”, but I do caution those who think Lombardi is an upgrade at center over Arnott. If things go well it should be a break even, which would still represent a marvelous coup for David Poile.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 30, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

USA Today "angst"

you should read the job kevin brown, not allen, wrote on the preds in his central division preview..it began w/ the depressed level of interest is hurting our future. we were “forced” to say goodbye to arnott and hammer. few would argue we have less to work w/ than last season. vaguely mentions signing lombardi, then doesnt include him in the top 2 lines.the only player battling for a job here is geoffrion. mentions sully as key injuries, even though he played every game last year. finishing w/ the drain of talent leaving here, blah, blah, blah….. we wont make the playoffs. i emailed them praising browns knowledge and investigative talents in researching and evaluating the predators. ironically, i got a response from them questioning who kevin brown was. wow.

by predswilrule on Aug 30, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

any chance you can pass along a link? That doesn't ring a bell.

On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 30, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree entirely...

I don’t even necessarily think there will be a downgrade offensively, but I do think it might change the nature of the team from one slightly more geared to a puck possession game (when Arnott was on the ice especially) to the more counter attacking team we’ve seen in the past.

Should help the forecheck game as well.

David Singleton w/ HockeyIndependent

by David Singleton on Aug 31, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice work. I’m not in the camp that Arnott’s departure means less chances for Hornqvist. If anything, Lombardi’s speed could open up more chances.

OtF: our captain can beat up your captain.
Bitter and Blue: if you can't beat 'em; buy 'em.

by Chris Burton on Aug 31, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff....

Taking your numbers (which I suspect are spot-on), that means that Hornqvist scored 17 goals of the rebound/tip/near rebound variety- more than half. With Arnott and Weber, Hornqvist knows a shot is likely coming and could plan accordingly.

With a Dumont, Erat, etc., Hornqvist either might not be able to time his play around the net accordingly, or it MIGHT be more difficult to sustain longer amounts of time around the crease waiting for a shot due to his smaller size.

I’m not overly stressing it over Arnott’s departure, nor did I think it would have a massive impact on Hornqvist as I’m only speculating a 2-goal drop, even with likely increased playing time.

Again, I also hope I’m dead wrong too.

David Singleton w/ HockeyIndependent

by David Singleton on Aug 31, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions