NHL schedule feeds some teams exhausted opponents in 2010-2011 season
by Dirk Hoag on Aug 9, 2010 11:25 AM EDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintAs I've written before, the travel burdens of the 2010-2011 NHL schedule fall unevenly on various teams, with some Eastern Conference squads enjoying a travel itinerary with about half as many miles flown as their Western counterparts. Another grueling aspect of the schedule, however, involves back-to-back sets of games. Teams in general enjoy a Points Percentage of roughly .560 (.500 isn't average anymore thanks to the OT "loser" point), but that Points Percentage drops by about .050 for teams which have already played a game the night before. Some back-to-back sets are particularly tough when you toss in two elite opponents, or a long flight between games.
This then leads to a double-edged question - not just which teams play the most and least B2B sets, but also, which teams will face the most opponents who are playing on the back end of a B2B set? Follow after the jump as we break it down...
The table below lays out the number of times each NHL team will face an opponent who has played the night before during the 2010-2011 regular season, along with the number of times they themselves have to play back-to-back as well. The "Balance" is the net of the two numbers, sorted from the most favorable combination to the least:
| Team | # of opponents on B2B | # of B2B's played | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | 24 | 15 | +9 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 21 | 16 | +5 |
| Washington Capitals | 20 | 15 | +5 |
| San Jose Sharks | 19 | 14 | +5 |
| Dallas Stars | 17 | 12 | +5 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 15 | 11 | +4 |
| Calgary Flames | 17 | 13 | +4 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 14 | +3 |
| New York Rangers | 20 | 18 | +2 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 13 | 11 | +2 |
| New Jersey Devils | 21 | 20 | +1 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 16 | 15 | +1 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 14 | 13 | +1 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 17 | 16 | +1 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 17 | 17 | 0 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 18 | 18 | 0 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 17 | 18 | -1 |
| Boston Bruins | 13 | 14 | -1 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 13 | 14 | -1 |
| Nashville Predators | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Minnesota Wild | 16 | 19 | -3 |
| Ottawa Senators | 13 | 16 | -3 |
| St. Louis Blues | 13 | 17 | -4 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 12 | 16 | -4 |
| New York Islanders | 15 | 20 | -5 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 16 | 21 | -5 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 12 | 17 | -5 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 15 | 22 | -7 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | 8 | 15 | -7 |
Click on any column heading to sort on that value.
As the Panthers hope to claw their way back into the playoffs (hey, it's Monday morning, let me get away with one cheap pun), the extra point or so that their favorable schedule might throw their way could make the difference between success and failure. Certainly the Flyers and Capitals don't need such help (although the Sharks will travel the most miles in the NHL this season). For the Sabres and Thrashers, the road back to the post-season looks a little bit steeper.
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Another Idea
Without insinuating that NHL players don’t take care of themselves on the road, there was a lot of discussion in Las Vegas at the NHL Awards that if Vegas were to get a team that they might have a home advantage when teams had an off day on the Strip the night before. Currently, many players concede that they enjoy going out in Nashville on a day off. Could you manipulate your super schedule from the past few years to see if there are any trends to one or two days off for a road team prior to a game in each city to see if there is anything to the “Vegas Advantage Theory?”
by Preds On The Glass on Aug 9, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
Interesting notion
I’d encourage an enterprising reader if they want to download a copy of the Super Schedule from Google and try their hand at this…
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.
Good chart...but
Washington certainly doesn’t need the added bonus of a +5 in balance with their success in the regular season last year. With the talent they have, it could easily mean 5 extra wins.
The Caps are the only team in that list (in the positive) that you could argue that this “balance” chart favors. You might be able to list Philly but nothing is guaranteed with their inconsistency. The Sharks’ winning opportunity window is closing so I don’t see them taking full advantage of their +5, especially with their current goalie.
The potential solid playoff teams next season ‘Hawks, Wings (0), Preds (-2), and Pens (-5) haven’t been given any favors.
???
You don’t see Florida benefiting from this, but Washington does? I don’t follow…
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.
Interesting chart. Does this take into account when both teams are playing the second of b2b nights? Seems like the advantage there no longer applies, assuming that happens. Poor Sabres, 22 B2Bs… that’s more than half their season. That seems sort of absurd to do to a team. I think the scheduling in the NHL could use some work, it just can’t be THAT hard to make it more balanced, both in miles and B2B stuff. Granted the miles one is probably a little hard to fix without doing away with the whole Eastern and Western conference thing.
If both teams played the night before, then it shows up in each column, and thus the “Balance” is unaffected.
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.
Interesting. I want very much to believe that NHL scheduling is random, and if we could see this same chart for the past 10 or so seaons, we’d see that no one team has had too many advantageous or disadvantageous schedules.
I’ll be curious to come back to this chart at the end of the season and see if the schedule had a noticeable effect on the standings.
"I wake up in the middle night frustrated because we lost out in the first round and I want to see our players hoist the Stanley Cup." -Brooks Laich
This is the 3rd season I’ve published a Super Schedule, and things do change from one year to the next. Availability of the arenas plays a big role here, and it’s certainly not an easy job to put together a schedule that’s fair to everyone.
Like I mention above, the record of teams when they’ve played the night before is about .050 points worse than average, that’s been consistent for each of the years I’ve looked at the data.
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators. Catch me on Twitter at @Forechecker.
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