Not Selling Jeans and Niclas Bergfors: Judging the Limits of "The Predator Way"

by Sam Page on Oct 18, 2011 3:42 PM EDT in Nashville Predators Analysis

Despite the many positive similarities between the current Predators and the turn-of-the-century Oakland Athletics, it's the villains of the new film Moneyball, not heroes Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta, who most evoke David Poile and Barry Trotz.

In the film's opening scenes, banners portraying Oakland's departing "big three" fall from the Coliseum's facade. Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, sits at a conference table inside the stadium and listens to his aides debate potential replacements for Jason Giambi, Jason Isringhausen, and Johnny Damon. Scouts take turns enumerating the positive attributes of their favorite free agents and prospects. But after each pitch, an increasingly frustrated Beane simple asks, "If he's so good, why can't he hit?"Himself exasperated at Beane's unflagging pessimism, head scout Grady Fuson turns and utters a mantra harrowingly familiar to any Nashville Predators fan:

"We're just looking for some players who can play 'Oakland A baseball'."

Billy Beane rolls his eyes.

If, after this NHL season, the Predators lose their own impending-free agent "big three," which role will David Poile play? Based on past statements and actions, do you expect him to be soberingly realistic about the need for change? Or will he double-down on familiar sloganeering?

The fundamental story of Moneyball, the Michael Lewis book, is of a team that decided to ignore all the player attributes that teams craved, but didn't directly contribute to winning. Sandy Alderson, a Marine and lawyer by trade, took the reigns of the A's in 1983, with no baseball background. Unable to maintain the payroll of Tony LaRussa's powerhouse teams, Oakland tasked Alderson with building a championship team on a small-market budget. To do so, he reevaluated the sports' hallowed ideas, to which he had no allegiance.

"You have to remember to remember that there wasn't any evidence that any of this shit worked," said Alderson (Moneyball, p. 57).

So Alderson audited baseball. He commissioned an analytic appraisal of the game from aerospace-engineer-turned-writer Eric Walker. The pamphlet Walker produced made a very simple, yet profound point. If baseball is half offense and half defense, and pitchers account for most of the defense, position-player fielding is necessarily a small percentage of the overall game--by Walker's estimation, just 5%.

So the A's strategy became: find the hitters who provided the most runs, even at expense of defense. And since On Base Percentage statistically correlated better to runs than any of the favored statistics of the time, that meant pursuing the hitters who walked.

There's an obvious analogue to hockey here: the shot. Statistical analysis shows that, in the long haul, the team that shoots the most, not the best, wins. Like the walk in baseball, the shot in hockey carries both an explicit and implicit value. When a batter walks, he forces the pitcher into a deeper count and runs up his pitch count. When a skater shoots, he forces the goalie to make a save, allowing the possibility of rebounds and deflections. Oakland's strategy in Moneyball was not so much to walk a lot, as to not make outs. Until you make the third out, there exists an infinite number of possible runs to be scored that inning. And until you shoot the damn puck, there are zero possible goals coming your way.

We can even make a simple application of Walker's theory to hockey: if hockey is equally about taking shots and preventing shots--and a team taking a shot is necessarily, at that moment, not allowing a shot--forward offense is hugely more important than forward defense.

If there's a correspondant Oakland team to today's Predators, it's the mediocre A's of the past five years, not the hugely successful Moneyball teams of the five years prior. Since the Red Sox made traditional Moneyball tactics work for a big market team, Oakland (among other teams) tried to stake out a new niche in building defense-first teams.

And while teams like Oakland and Seattle no doubt reached their goal of evaluating defense better than the rest, they betrayed their ultimate goal: winning. Oakland's slick-fielding, low-OBP speedesters dominate that 5% of the game. But alas, it's still just 5%.

Today's A's teams are hard to score against, but beatable. Sound familiar? Unfortunately for Billy Beane, he's running out of options--On Base Percentage is now the opposite of a secret. Fortunately for the Predators, hockey is decades behind baseball, in this regard.

The Predators are right to define themselves in opposition to the big-market, traditional models of building a team. But they need to stop obsessing with being the most defensively responsible team and start being the shrewdest.

Later in Moneyball, Brad Pitt returns to his roundtable of scouts, this time awakened to Eric Walker's lessons, with his protégé "Peter Brand" in tow. Beane lays down the law: they're going to sign the following players, whether his scouts like them or not. The scouts resist. Scott Hatteberg?! He's slow. He has a bum elbow. He can't play first. He doesn't hit for average.

Beane: "But what does he do?" /points to Jonah Hill

Brand: "Do you want me to talk?"

Beane: "When I point to you, yes."

Brand: "He gets on base."

The Predators managed 12 shots the other night. 12! That's like letting an opposing pitcher beat you with 80 pitches. They need to get the puck on the net. Matt Halischuk is not getting it there. Nick Spaling won't get it there. Brian McGrattan sure won't get it there.

J.P. Dumont was old. He was slowing down. He didn't backcheck.

Beane: "But what does he do?" /points to Paul Fenton

He shot the puck. The Predators would have been better off keeping him than paying him to play for someone else.

There are several such examples in Predators' history. Players that pushed the shot differential in the right direction got dumped, while players hurting the cause got adulation. Good riddance Dan Hamhuis; come home Greg Zanon. We won't miss Jason Arnott, but we'll never fully replace Scott Nichol. Replacing Joel Ward will be easy. Antti Pihlström took 88 shots in 53 games, playing fourth line minutes, but couldn't even get a one-way contract.

Niclas Bergfors. Lazy. Plays at half-speed. A defensive 0. But...

Brand: "He shoots the puck."

Niclas Bergfors is currently getting benched for all the same reasons he's been bounced to four teams at just 24 years old. Yet every team that got sick of Bergfors significantly outshot their opponents when Bergfors was on the ice for them. Last year, Matt Halischuk hustled, worked hard, and endeared himself to the coaching staff. But the Predators got badly outshot with him on the ice. I completely understand why Barry Trotz will never bench a player like Halischuk for a player like Bergfors. But if you favor the process that produces the much worse result, maybe it's time to reevaluate how you look at the process, not stubbornly accept the bad result.

Over and over the old scouts will say, "The guy has a great body' or, "This guy may be the best body in the draft." And every time they do, Billy will say, "We're not selling jeans here," and deposit yet another highly touted player, beloved by the scouts, onto his shit list. --Moneyball, p. 31

"The Predator Way" is a tolerable concept and marketing slogan, as long as it means teaching forwards responsibility and developing great defensemen and goaltenders. When "The Predator Way" starts to favor acquiring hustling, defense-first forwards, instead of teaching defense to forwards with talent, we're selling jeans here. These past few years, David Poile has nearly built a team that plays perfect "Predator hockey." Now its time to build a team that just wins.

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Comments

Great stuff Dirk.

I found it odd that Poile signed Bergfors for a song (I was hoping the Flames would do that) but not play him. Is there a disconnect between the coach and GM?

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by Kent Wilson on Oct 18, 2011 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks, but read the byline!

Sam Page wrote this.

Sometimes you do get a disconnect, I remember back a few years ago Poile traded for Vitaly Vishnevski, and Trotz wouldn’t play him, leading Poile to reportedly apologize to Vishnevski in front of the team.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 18, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

So he did. My apologies Sam.

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by Kent Wilson on Oct 18, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Internesting analogy Sam

I feel like it’s inherently different in hockey because the shot is the ONE thing that will get you a goal not taking into account fluky bounces, passes, etc. That being said, I think the point you’re making about the need to shoot the puck more is absolutely something that needs to be addressed. 12 shots in a game is just not acceptable and we will continue down this sad trend of getting lucky on a shot, trying to hold down that one or two goal lead, and ultimately failing. Good article though. I really enjoyed reading it.

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by MattBen on Oct 18, 2011 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

I agree but...

You can’t shoot the puck if you cannot control the puck in your own zone and the Preds cannot even do that now. One pass and they give up the puck and they are off to the defensive zone. This lack of puck control only exacerbates the issue that they do not shoot the puck enough. Good defense and goalie play will only take you so far and I do not think it will take you to the SC Finals… IMHO. It is rare in any sport to win championships with just a good defense. While it is not impossible it is rare. The last time I checked all winning teams have more points when the final score is posted.

by rvrob on Oct 19, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Amen Brother!

“And until you shoot the damn puck, there are zero possible goals coming your way.”

I have said it before …Trotz has a Man Crush on Matt Halischuk. Wonder if Barry’s wife knows.?

We need more Offense.. We got beat by a bunch of Teenagers who really didnt play good defense but beat us were it counts… The score board.

by DHack on Oct 18, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

does his man crush also apply to spaling? not sure about when i saw him centering erat and kostitsyn.

by predwheels on Oct 18, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

A bit ..But Spaling is a Pred Prospect from day one. Halischuk from what I remember of Dirk’s profile was a solid Ad’s player who would see very limited time in Nashville. It’s gotta be all about $$$’s. I can see no other explaination

by DHack on Oct 18, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Great stuff. Interesting that Poile was also in the bidding for Kessel, who shoots the puck a lot.

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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Oct 18, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

He would have died of Bordom on the bench

by DHack on Oct 18, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Which makes his interest in him somewhat curious.

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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Oct 18, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Very good stuff

I wonder when David Poile will trade Carlos Peña so that Bergfors gets his shot…

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by camcharron on Oct 18, 2011 4:08 PM EDT reply actions

shoot

I forgot to make this joke.

by Sam Page on Oct 18, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t want to jump on the Trotz hating band wagon, but I think we have a serious coaching problem right now. . . Bergfors is sitting so McGrattan can play—against a bunch of kids that don’t play defense? It’s ridiculous. Defense is great, but when players are punished for taking shots, something is wrong with your philosophy.

by Melissa Vanderpool Wallace on Oct 18, 2011 4:15 PM EDT reply actions

i don’t get sitting bergfors for mcgratton either.

by predwheels on Oct 18, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Ben Eager started for Edmonton and Trotz had to match personnel

The only Pred that could take on Eager is TooToo and I don’t think anybody wants TooToo fighting these days since he is on the verge becoming an offensive threat (did I just write that). Ben Eager is a large, unpredictable, angry man and McGratton was dressed to be there if needed.

by Gumpucks on Oct 18, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Except...

Visiting team turns in the lineup card first. If anything, Eager was in to match up with McGratton.

by Swingnut on Oct 19, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Shea Weber could scowl and deter Eager from coming out for the 2nd period.

by Passive Voice on Oct 21, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it for a deeper reason than that...

Watch any of the last few games…most of the players are getting pushed off of the puck. McGratten provides a larger bodied player. Plus as Trotz has said nobody has really had Rinne’s back besides Suter and Weber. Honestly Bergfors needed to sit so he will want to work harder when he plays. We are losing battles along the boards, and if you aren’t winning them, then you are not getting shots. Oh and does anybody remember that Edmonton has Andy Sutton.

by Predmonton on Oct 18, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

So far Bergfors has had 9 min of ice time -- all season

How is a player supposed to prove his worth to a coach who won’t even put him on the ice?

by Ay Carumba on Oct 19, 2011 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions

OUTSTANDING

Great read, Sam, and I agree 100%!

by gojersey on Oct 18, 2011 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

totally off topic

but I have seen several post asking for a video of the belak tribute from the game the other night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WDn2P34bB4

The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey

by bvkv09 on Oct 18, 2011 4:28 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting fact

last year we were out shot in 5 of our first six games and had a 3-2-1 record. I wasn’t posting on the site then, but was the commentary much of the same? The team sure seemed to finish OK. I will admit that we didn’t have a game with as little as 16 or 12 shots.

The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey

by bvkv09 on Oct 18, 2011 4:41 PM EDT reply actions

sorry about that the dates were all skewed

The tendency to whining and complaining may be taken as the surest sign symptom of little souls and inferior intellects. ~ Lord Jeffrey

by bvkv09 on Oct 18, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

These rules are not always going to work, you guys do have Rinne and 2 of the best Dmen in the league so naturally your going to win some games. But overall the team that shoots more on average will likely take the win

No Good Komi Scum

by SPERO on Oct 18, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't worry

People always freak out at OTF when things don’t go well

by Lil cutie on Oct 18, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

This article is not in reaction to the start of the season

I’ve been thinking about this idea for a while.

by Sam Page on Oct 18, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

The score affects the play, so teams that fall behind early often outshoot their opponents, and at the single-game level shot differential has a negative correlation to winning.

However, over the course of a season, the better teams outshoot their opponents when they’re tied, outshoot them by more than average when behind and by less than average when ahead. So at the season level, winning the shot battle is a good thing.

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by Eric T. on Oct 18, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Great article, really enjoyed the read.

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by SPERO on Oct 18, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

I like it

One thing I’d like to add, and something you alluded to…

It’s typically not so simple to just be the team that generates more shots; sometimes you need to be the team that reduces opponents shots to offset a troubled offence. What makes either of those accomplishments a possibility, though, is the crux of your argument that guys like Brian McGrattan are played over guys like Niclas Bergfors on a lot of NHL teams. Internally I always have the though that, if all teams wised up to this “market inefficiency,” it would be very interesting to see what teams would need to do for the “edge” next.

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Oct 18, 2011 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

Bergfors played in the opening home game and we were even worse that night. Bergfors isn’t going to make much of a difference.

Bergfors need to realize that playing D and back checking hard will lead to more scoring chances for him. They just have to shoot once they get it back across the blue line. Wilson has figured it out and that’s why he is producing. Kostitsyn figured that out last year. I hope Bergfors figures it out, cause that kid could be really good.

Craig Smith is going to have no problem. He got his minutes reduced the other night and bounced back with a hell of a game last night. He puts pucks on net.

I don’t know if Cal is the youngster we should have kept amongst Jones, Santorelli and Peverley, but we did. I’m starting to think not. I at least think Mueller deserves a shot in place of Cal.

Jury is still out on Blake,

If our guys would just shoot more. We are obsessed with the perfect play. Case in point was Blum making that pass at the end of last nights game. He had traffic in front with space for a shot and he tried to be a fancy lad.

I will say that Horny getting such few minutes in disconcerting. I would blame that on Trotz and not Poile of course. After all, Horny lead the team in shots last year.

Also, Ward and Franson were among our leaders in shots too.

by 29thWard on Oct 18, 2011 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting stuff, but...........

I think we can just be over-thinking what the problem is with this team. Fact is, we just aren’t a very talented team in terms of offense and therefore don’t generate much in the way of offense. The problems we had in the Vancouver series last spring are evident with us now and it appears other teams have picked up on it. We just have a very difficult time maintaining puck possession once we cross the opposing teams blueline. We’re easy to knock of the puck and our passing abilities are limited. Hard to score much when you have these difficultues.

While having some guys out with injuries no doubt effects some of this, we just don’t seem to have lines that mesh very well together. They have that hodge podge look to them. Bergfors is not the answer to this, though it couldn’t hurt to actually play him over some of the guys playing ahead of him right now.

Fact is, we didn’t address our one area of weakness this off-season and are now paying for it. Rinne is carrying this team and it shouldn’t have to be that way.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Oct 18, 2011 6:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

BUT

as you mentioned much of that was unaddressed problems from a season ago. we are piss poor defensively and that is a huge change.

by predswilrule on Oct 18, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, we’ve only given up 2 goals in 3 of our 5 games so far, 3 last night and a 5 goal stinker to Phoenix. That doesn’t appear to be horrid defensive play (though Rinne makes up for a lot of our mistakes). We simply don’t have the puck long enough to do anything other than playing defense.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Oct 18, 2011 6:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Every year starts out the same way.........

………playing the goon, shifting the lines and scoring 0-1 goals. That IS the Predator way in October. It’s Trotz’s fault.

I can’t bring myself to join the discussion while we’re losing. In the meantime, kuddos to guys like Wilson, Legwand, HornQ, Kostitsyn and Smith for their effort. And thumbs down to the coaching staff for throwing away points in October which will undoubtedly prevent usfrom winning the division……..again.

We got the skill on the ice, we just lack skill on the bench.

The truth is always the right answer....

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Oct 18, 2011 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

hath Hell frozen over? You said something good about Legwand!

60% of the time it works every time

by Creeping Death on Oct 18, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

He’s done it before. I even marked it down on my calendar. He has gradually moved from “Legwand may not suck this year” to “kudos to Legwand.” It’s like he’s been taken over by some sort of Legwand-loving fungus that is fighting for control of his brain. It can only get worse from here I’m afraid.

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by CAustin on Oct 18, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

As long as the good Legwand provides.

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by cisar on Oct 19, 2011 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, he can taketh away just as quick as he giveth.

by 29thWard on Oct 19, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm just tellin' it like it is.........

as always.

I"ll jump on anyone’s a$$ who ain’t puttin’ out, and Leggy ain’t in that category…..yet.

The truth is always the right answer....

by Pekka for Predator Pontiff on Oct 19, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Bergfors - Good shot differential, poor goal differential

Over the past 2 seasons Bergfors has a good corsi rating when he is on the ice at 5v5 situations – fenwick for % of 52.4%. Problem is his goals for % is a poor 45.8%. He can out shoot his opponents, but apparently can’t out score them. His on-ice shooting percentage was 6.89% in 2009-10 and 6.73% in 2010-11 while the oppositions shooting percentage when he was on the ice was 8.65% in 2009-10 and 8.68% in 2010-11.

Not everyone believes shooting percentage is a talent, but I do and I’ll take a guy with a good goal differential over a guy with a good shot differential any day.

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 18, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

At an individual level I’m open to the idea of shooting percentage as a talent (some forwards may be 9% shooters, others 12%, etc.), but you’ll have some convincing to do selling the idea that individuals have a strong influence on team-level shooting and save percentages.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 18, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

If you are open to it, I am sure I can convince you. Here is a teaser for you. Here are the on-ice 5v5 shooting percentages for the past 4 seasons for Crosby and Moen.

Crosby: 11.20, 10.07, 11.16, 11.53 4yr avg: 10.91
Moen: 3.33, 5.26, 6.78, 6.36 4 yr avg: 5.50

You’ll have a hard time convincing me that those two are equivalent if not for luck. Crosby is nearly double Moen.

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 18, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

League average is just under 8%

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 18, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

That's nothing, you're picking extremes

Two quick objections to using Goals/60:

1. You’re using only 1/20th of the data as compared to Corsi, so there’s going to be more noise in the signal.
2. Using Goals/60 means that goaltending performance plays a role on both sides of the dividing line, which further muddies its application to an individual skater.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 18, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, but the difference between Crosby and Moen is statistically significant at, I believe, greater than 99% confidence level using the 4 year numbers. Crosby has been >2 standard deviations above mean in each of the past 4 seasons.

Take a look at the list all players with >3000 minutes of 5v5 ice time over the past 4 seasons and you see mostly offensive players with the top on-ice shooting percentage and mostly defensive/role players with the worst on-ice shooting percentage. If shooting percentage were largely random you’d see at least a few Moen’s, Pahlsson’s, Grier’s, or Marchant’s at the top of the list and a few top offensive players at the bottom of the list. But generally they is a sensible order to the list, not randomness.

If you ask me, a list of forwards sorted by shooting percentage identifies offensive players better than a list of players sorted by corsi for.

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 18, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, so you overcome the “lack of events” issue by widening your scope to cover four years of activity and 3000 total minutes, which drops the vast majority of players right out of scope, including Bergfors.

Getting back to the point here about Bergfors, however, I’m not sure what you’re arguing. Among Nashville’s ready options, he’s an obvious choice to help tip the balance of play, certainly more so than Brian McGrattan.

As to your broader push of Goals/60, it would be interesting to see how well it holds up for individuals when they change teams. I wish I had more time to devote to these issues, because to me, something like Expected Goals (using Shot Quality) would seem to be the theoretical ideal, held up by the obvious caveat about the quality of the NHL’s official scorers.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 18, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry…I couldn’t help myself.

by Frattaway on Oct 18, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Just because I used 4 years as “proof” doesn’t mean talent doesn’t show up at a one year level. It just isn’t necessarily at a 95% confidence level. For many players they shooting percentage is remarkably stable from season to season (i.e. Crosby).

I believe a lot of the variation in shooting percentage is not just due to talent level, but due to playing style. Crosby is paid to score goals, Moen is paid to stop the opposition from scoring goals. Crosby probably takes more risks, but generates better offensive chances by doing so. Moen takes very few risks and as a result is better defensively than Crosby, but doesn’t generate high quality scoring chances and his shooting percentage is evidence of this. This is not to say that Moen could be as good as Crosby offensively, but if he were asked to play a more offensive role he may produce more.

This is, in essence, exactly what we see with score effects. Depending on the score teams play differently which affects their shooting percentages for and against.

And that is partly what makes it makes it so difficult to identify year over year correlations in shooting percentage (in addition to the small sample size issues). The players with well defined roles (i.e. the Crosby’s whose main role is offense or the Moen’s whose main role is defense) maintain their shooting percentages from season to season, even if they change teams. But when Alexei Ponikarovsky goes from the first line on the Leafs to the third line on the Kings, his role changes. He went from 30% of his zone starts (30% of all starts, including neutral zone) to 37% and was asked to play a far more defensive role. His on-ice shooting percentage dropped from an average of 9.18% from 2007-08 to 2009-10 to 6.6% last season. His on-ice opposition shooting percentage dropped from 10.36% to 6.09% so he was quite effective in his defensive role too. But, that really messes up any year to year correlation.

And there are a lot of Ponikarovsky’s out there who might play an offensive role on a weaker team and then go to a stronger team and be assigned a defensive role, or their roles may change with a change in coach.

All this means that there is far more to consider than just corsi. Shooting percentage can be controlled through player talent and playing style.

As for Bergfors, his goal based quality of competition over the past couple seasons is actually among the toughest in the league so he hasn’t played sheltered minutes which would account for some of the elevated shooting percentage against (top 2 forwards in ice time that he has played against are Ovechkin and Backstrom). But even so, the results defensively haven’t been great. Offensively the results have been a bit better but are still mixed. Not bad, but nothing too special. He is probably a typical second line player who definitely deserves ice time over McGratton. That said, he might be getting benched for other reasons (i.e. in hopes of instilling a better work ethic into him which may result in improved long term results). Not being familiar with the reasoning behind the decision, I don’t know.

If by expected goals/shot quality you mean shot location, I am not certain that holds the answer. Tom Awad did a study where he determined shot location was a factor in why some players score more goals than others but on the whole it was a significantly smaller factor than generating more shots or being better at capitalizing on those shots (i.e. shooting percentage). Unfortunately I am not sure that is the answer either.

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by HockeyAnalysis on Oct 18, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If by expected goals/shot quality you mean shot location, I am not certain that holds the answer. Tom Awad did a study where he determined shot location was a factor in why some players score more goals than others but on the whole it was a significantly smaller factor than generating more shots or being better at capitalizing on those shots (i.e. shooting percentage). Unfortunately I am not sure that is the answer either.

Not the total answer, no, but perhaps marginally superior to shots alone.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 19, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

so in less geekspeak...

We have too many defensive players and not enough offensive players.

Thoughts?

by djzielin on Oct 19, 2011 7:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'd just go for "bad" vs. "good" right now

Too many young guys that aren’t ready for prime time yet. I miss Wardo & SOB.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 19, 2011 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s a good thing that true talent emerges after 2 NHL seasons.

In Bergfors’s case, I am willing to concede that he is not likely to be an average shooter – he shot below 10% every year in the AHL, including a season below 6% – but I don’t think that also falls on his linemates. So, sure, the expectation is that his on-ice shooting should be a little below 8%.

NJ really sold high on that one.

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by Triumph44 on Oct 19, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Poiles bad off season moves are killing the Preds now

First off I want to say that I think this is one of the best articles every posted at OTF!
Now, Poile should never have let SOB leave for so cheap. He was quickly becoming a fan favorite, played a bit of an enforcer role, and played a good amount of minutes both even strength and shorthanded. The Lombardi trade was a terrible move, literally giving away a good young defenseman with some experience instead of trading one of the prospects. Oh, and we lost a top 6 forward who would have started the season. To add to that, the 3rd D pairing is just atrocious. Hillen is averaging 13:17 after 4 games; Laakso 11:04 in 5 games; Ekholm 11:30 in 1 game. That’s not even close to enough minutes, not to mention the bad penalties that are being taken when they are out there. Suter took a bad penalty last night but the man is averaging 28:07 in the first 5 games. That’s second most in the league. Weber’s not far behind at 26:50 a game, making him sixth overall. Those two just can’t keep up at that pace for the first 20+ games without getting worn down so early in the season.

Also, what the hell was Trotz thinking putting Halischuk out there in the Shootout against New Jersey? You didn’t see the Devils put out their third or fourth line players, they put out their most SKILLED SCORING players and they won. I’m not saying we have talent like Parise or Kovalchuk, but we do have players who are much more talented at scoring in the shootout than Halischuk. The game should have never gotten to that point anyways but the fact still remains: Trotz didn’t put out the players who were most likely to score and win the game; he instead put out the players that he probably thought deserved it the most by playing "Predator Hockey". Sounds very similar to what the article touches on.

by TheEraser35 on Oct 18, 2011 7:20 PM EDT reply actions

The Devils put out the players that are the best on the shootout attempt. That doesn’t always equal SKILLED SCORING players. Break out your data culled from going to Predators’ practices and watching the breakaway attempts. Last year, Cal O’Reilly was 3-6 in the shootout. For the year, the list of shootout participants was this, in order of shooting percentage:
1. O’Reilly
2. Goc
3. Erat
4. Franson
5. Sullivan
6. Fisher
7. Kostityn
8. Legwand

The last three didn’t score goals, but had attempts. So, O’Reilly got a chance and shooters 2-6 weren’t available and the other two didn’t score on their attempts last year, so why put them in there. Halischuk must do better in practice than everyone else available.

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by cisar on Oct 19, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions

fwiw, Kovalchuk is not a very good shootout player – he’s 29.5% lifetime. I have to imagine NJ has a player who can do better than that.

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by Triumph44 on Oct 19, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Ummm, there’s this Parise kid who’s got like the 6th best career record in the league. Or something.

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Even bears must face this fact: we're nothing without Rinne.--Grizzledbear, 10/9/2011
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by CAustin on Oct 19, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think I’ve heard of him. :D

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Oct 19, 2011 7:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

We don’t have any SKILLED SCORING PLAYERS. If we did, we wouldn’t be in this mess.

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by amyinsparta on Oct 19, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of Hockey Gear HQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 19, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions