Sharks vs Predators advanced stats tell a familiar tale

by Dirk Hoag on Oct 26, 2011 7:25 AM EDT in Nashville Predators Game Recaps

NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 25: Patrick Marleau #12 of the San Jose Sharks pursues Sergei Kostitsyn #14 of the Nashville Predators at the Bridgestone Arena on October 25, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

Stop me if you've heard this one before - the Nashville Predators were sorely outgunned in the shot totals, and were kept in the game by Pekka Rinne before ultimately coughing it up in the third period. It's a familiar story, but a relevant one; they've been outshot in every single game so far.

And before you ask, no, Virginia, there's no indication that teams can, over the course of a season, play a strategy of "fewer, but higher quality shots" to any significant advantage. The Preds are simply spending way too much time scrambling in their own end, and not enough time making opponents do the same.

Follow after the jump for the advanced even-strength numbers from last night's game, and a few quick-hit observations...

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I was amazed at how much work Mike Fisher got last night, and he didn't look tentative at all. He jumped right into the mix and banged bodies consistently. While he's never been a big force in the possession game, he's still a major upgrade at center.
The Cube was also a welcome sight on the blueline, and even if he can just shore up the 3rd pair, that's another marginal improvement that helps things get moving in the right direction.
The entire current roster of the team is underwater in terms of cumulative Corsi rating. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but that's a scary sight right there.
SK74 has 9 shots in 8 games. Like I've said before, it's very rare for guys to significantly bump up their shooting rates from one year to the next, especially for a guy who's been around for a while like Kostitsyn has.
I don't see how the Preds can continue to use a spot in the lineup for an enforcer. This team isn't talented enough up front to just run 3 lines along with a few specialists.
A gold star goes to Craig Smith, who continues to fire away and cash in the rewards.

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
David Legwand	C	16:28	2	1	0	1	5	11	-6	12	19	-7
Colin Wilson	C	15:18	1	0	0	1	5	12	-7	12	19	-7
Jordin Tootoo	R	15:17	3	0	0	1	4	11	-7	9	19	-10
Craig Smith	C	14:58	5	0	0	0	10	6	+4	15	10	+5
Mike Fisher	C	14:22	0	1	0	1	6	7	-1	11	11	0
Sergei Kostitsyn	L	14:18	0	3	0	0	6	6	0	11	9	+2
Nick Spaling	C	12:47	1	0	0	0	1	6	-5	4	12	-8
Jerred Smithson	R	12:13	0	1	0	0	2	6	-4	5	11	-6
Matt Halischuk	R	10:44	0	0	0	1	4	6	-2	7	10	-3
Patric Hornqvist	R	9:25	0	0	1	2	2	4	-2	5	7	-2
Blake Geoffrion	C	6:33	0	0	0	0	3	4	-1	3	7	-4
Brian Mcgrattan	R	4:46	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	0	5	-5
Ryan Suter	D	17:49	0	1	0	1	9	11	-2	15	19	-4
Francis Bouillon	D	17:28	0	1	0	1	2	6	-4	5	14	-9
Kevin Klein	D	17:01	1	1	1	2	5	10	-5	11	14	-3
Shea Weber	D	16:08	3	2	0	0	10	9	+1	16	12	+4
Jonathon Blum	D	14:26	0	0	1	1	4	10	-6	10	17	-7
Jack Hillen	D	14:24	0	0	1	1	2	8	-6	5	16	-11

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Comments

I don’t see how the Preds can continue to use a spot in the lineup for an enforcer. This team isn’t talented enough up front to just run 3 lines along with a few specialists.

I. Just. Don’t. Get. It.

I would feel differently if McGrattan brought anything, anything, to this team. But all that he has done so far is have one circus fight and low, ineffectual minutes.

At least Bergie will occasionally shoot the puck.

My thoughts about about last night’s game are a lot like other folk; that we’re looking better. But, that said, I feel like we’ve only just begun to take tentative steps into mediocrity. Ah, the ascension to slightly below average…warms the heart, doesn’t it?

I’ll be there tomorrow against the Bolts, but with their offensive prowess, I’m a little scared…however, we play better against the smaller, faster teams IMO. But, like I tell my wife before every Preds game, “We got this…”

I’m glad beer is half-off through the first. Numbs the pain.

"Our strength is our numbers. We're like a pack of wolves. We're going to come after you." - Barry Trotz

by rusherman on Oct 26, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Key to winning against the Bolts is to just keep shooting…oh. yeah. …Well, then keep taking the puck away…oh. darn it….Ummmmm, their power play has been pretty bad. maybe our strategy ought to be to stay in the box?

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Lightning Goalies--0 for 4 on the poke check in October 2011
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Oct 26, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Optimism, OPTIMISM!!!

The fans are standing up to them! The security guards are standing up to them! The peanut vendors are standing up to them! And by golly, if I could get down there, I'd be standing up to them! - Slap Shot

by rusherman on Oct 26, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

It’s hard for me. I love them both and want them both to win. I haven’t figured out how to warp the fabric of reality to make that happen, but I’m working on it.

The Bolts are having similar problems to the Preds—holes in the defense, relying too much on the goalie, best offensive players not producing like they need to, terrible decisions by young players. If Garon’s not on, the Bolts have a higher probability of falling apart. And when they fall apart, they fall completely apart. The question is whether the Preds are capable of putting Garon into a tough enough position to take advantage of his weaknesses. The Bolts will turn the puck over, A LOT. Can we keep possession? Hedman and Kubina will make bad, bad decisions. Can the Preds take advantage?

I want both of my teams to play well, but to be honest, I am waaay more invested in the Preds taking it to the Damn Dirty Ducks than I am in whether they beat Tampa Bay. If I were required to choose between a win over TB and a win over Anaheim, I choose “make Perry cry.”

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Lightning Goalies--0 for 4 on the poke check in October 2011
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Oct 26, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Pull for a three-point game. That’s what I do when the Caps are playing the Preds. And it usually works out that way. The Bolts will sort through their problems. Not so sure about us. But it’s still early. My time for pessimism was the summer. And it wasn’t by choice. Now I’m just hoping for the best and willing to give this some time. Hopefully we won’t be buried by January.

by el pucko on Oct 26, 2011 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

My prediction

20 shots on goal between the two teams with 45 turnovers.

by RemoWilliams84 on Oct 26, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

back and forth and back and forth and repeat.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.
Lightning Goalies--0 for 4 on the poke check in October 2011
Part Predator, part Lightning.

by CAustin on Oct 26, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Have Trotz play McGrattan more than 6 shifts…then they might not be so “ineffectual”

Have Bergfors actually play some D out there instead of being the cherry picker that he is…

What happens on the ice...stays on the ice...

by BrianAdsFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, what to do? I know what Coach is going to do-stay the course, hoping that somewhere down the line they will coalesce and win some games. And maybe they will. But right now, it’s not happening, and the longer it’s not happening, the greater the chance that they will start blaming each other. I suppose we will just have to stay the course ourselves, because there is NO history of looking for a player that is good at shooting the puck into the goal on a consistent basis.Thank the hockey gods that we have Rinne, for if we didn’t, we would be right there fighting Columbus for rights to the cellar.

"I am you, you are me, and we are all together" Beatles

by amyinsparta on Oct 26, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

Who are the Preds?

3 players had 11 of our 16 shots.
11 of our guys didn’t even have a shot.
2 of the guys that didn’t shoot were on the top line.
1 of the guys that didn’t shoot lead our team in shots last year and in goals 2 years ago.
We aren’t skilled enough to make the perfect play, so why keep trying?!!!!
We are a grinder team and we have to score ugly goals to win.
Time for shooting practice!!!!!!!!!

by 29thWard on Oct 26, 2011 10:13 AM EDT reply actions

who are the Pred’s ?? Right now – from my point of view, pretty much same team as last year but with some new faces.

by XVIII on Oct 26, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

It was more of statement about them continuing not to know their own identity. They seem to think they are Capitals, but they are a grinding team.

by 29thWard on Oct 26, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Sad that the Pred’s can’t get more than 16 Goals For in 8 games … they way the lamp was lit in the Pre-season (I know – that was Pre-season) made me at least, feel like they were going to be able to score more than 1 or 2 goals a game on average. And the way the team typically falls apart in the 3rd is alarming. Agree with 29th Ward – time for shooting practice – and lets add a bag skate for extra motivation.

by XVIII on Oct 26, 2011 10:16 AM EDT reply actions

You really have tp put the blame for this Roster on Poile. We have spent so much time and effort developing Defense that no real Forward talent has developed. Wilson has always had the talent but spent too much time in Trotz’s dog house. Poile should have told Trotz to play him. At center. Long term contracts to Erat and Legwand were a waste, Legwand looks lost on the ice. Cant really say about Marty this season he hasn’t been on the ice long enough to make an impact.
Every team needs Star caliber players. We do have 3 but they are stars in the Defensive end of the ice and when that happens you can expect to see what we have seen. Low Scoring, Low shot count, Some good defense with the goalie pulling their butts out of the fire about every 3rd game. Thak God we get to play the Jackets some more.

by DHack on Oct 26, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

The thing is, after our top D pairing, the defense isn’t that great. It is pretty frustrating.

by 29thWard on Oct 26, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

One more thing to add to the complaint pile...

I noticed line changes were really slow at times when some speed of getting off/on the ice would’ve helped the play. Trotz would be good to drill these guys in ice changes like the old Canadiens teams of the 60s-70s.

by DonBorvio on Oct 26, 2011 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

I've got a drill for them...

Put half the team on one bench and half on the other and make them jump the boards skate down and SHOOT THE PUCK until everybody is puking.

by RemoWilliams84 on Oct 26, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds good to me!

Like a shooting bag skate, only more useful!

by DonBorvio on Oct 26, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Have we found a center?

In Craig Smith?

by predsbelonginblue on Oct 26, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, best player on the team right now IMO not named Pekka Rinne.

by DonBorvio on Oct 26, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Where would we be right now?

If we had been able to:

1) Keep Ward on offense 2) Keep SOB55 on defense and 3) Keep our blue jersey

Hoping the year gets better. Just not real fun to watch yet this year. Better days ahead, hopefully.

by predsbelonginblue on Oct 26, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

We might be a little better defensively and won one more game. I don’t blame colors for wins/losses. Chemistry has to develop, and it will.

by DonBorvio on Oct 26, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Who has the stats on our record in the blue thirds?

World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
~Joe Strummer

by cisar on Oct 26, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

moves

Most all of the moves have backfired. The young defense is not ready and Trotz doesn’t trust them with extended minutes. Begfors is not sk. Hillen looks bad and he’s a veteran and he gets scratched. The Cube showed more in one game that Hillen has shown in all the games so far. Spaling and O’Reilly as Poile suggested are not top 6 forwards. We can’t move forward until mgmt identifies the problems and attempts to fix them.

by roseyc on Oct 26, 2011 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

Very good succinct overview of our problems.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Oct 26, 2011 5:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Sadly

if this continues much longer, we may see the second coach in Predators history… and it really isn’t all his fault.

by djzielin on Oct 26, 2011 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

Nah

Trotz and Poile are attached at the hip – brothers from another mother one might say …

by XVIII on Oct 26, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I remember Trotz pulling this cutie out of his pocket after a game

Now forgive me if I get it a little wrong, but here is the gist…

“I have alot of Rembrandts out there when all I need is a wall painted…”

I think he’s taken that philosophy too far and the boys are afraid to pick up the brush…

What happens on the ice...stays on the ice...

by BrianAdsFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:20 PM EDT reply actions

And...

Something I got out of the CORSI stats…not the plus/minus which is slanted based on the line matchups and shorthanded ice time, etc., but the time.

Why is the best guy that plays in front of the goal and our top goal scorer (Horny) only getting 9 minutes and change of even strength ice time?

What happens on the ice...stays on the ice...

by BrianAdsFan on Oct 26, 2011 9:32 PM EDT reply actions

Foot injury

In this morning’s links, Trotz admits that’s hampering his play right now.

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by Dirk Hoag on Oct 27, 2011 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions