Nashville Predators Season Preview: Mission Central
by Dirk Hoag on Oct 6, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Nashville Predators Analysis
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PrintThe Opening Night roster is set, the players are ready, and the 2011-2012 NHL Regular Season kicks off today. The Nashville Predators don't hit the ice until tomorrow night in Columbus, but to tide you over until then, we've got your season preview right here...
Who's New?
There are plenty of fresh young faces on this edition of the Preds, including (click their name to go their Player Page, which includes a Scouting Report, career stats, and related stories)...
Swiped off the free agent market for the bargain sum of $575,000, hopes run high that he'll be this year's Sergei Kostitsyn, taking a leading offensive role and fulfilling the talent which led him to a 1st-round draft pick. He could also turn out to be this year's Marek Svatos, however, and end up watching from the press box more often than not.
The rangy rookie made the team out of training camp, but hasn't exactly locked up a regular job quite yet. The tricky part here is that if the Preds want to send him to Milwaukee, he can exercise a clause in his contract and head back to Sweden for the year, instead. He's got the physical tools to really make an impact on the Nashville power play, sort of like a more-mobile and left-handed Cody Franson.
He wasn't quite rescued from the Island of Misfit Toys, but the New York Islanders are close enough. A smooth-skating, opportunistic defenseman, Hillen provides the veteran hand that Barry Trotz can call upon when all the kids' growing pains start giving him heartburn.
Yes, he passed up two final years of college eligibility to jump to the pros, but at 22 years of age, he's physically mature enough to bang with the big boys of the NHL. There will be an adjustment to the schedule of pro hockey (in college, they practice all week and play on Friday & Saturday), but the upside here is tremendous, and he's already proved his mettle somewhat with a stellar performance the World Championships last spring.
Zack came off a season that saw him split time between the NHL and AHL, and came to Nashville's camp committed to doing whatever it took to earn a roster spot with the Preds. If he can continue proving to be an absolute pain the butt to play against, Trotz will find a way to give him a few minutes a night.
Who's Gone?
Joel Ward - the defensive mainstay and playoff performer will be sorely missed. Is there another winger who will earn the coaches' trust to take on the toughs?
Steve Sullivan - a popular spark plug up front, but in the twilight of his career, he found a perfect fit with Pittsburgh.
J.P. Dumont - it's hard to feel bad for a guy getting paid millions not to play, but after his summer buyout, we haven't heard a peep about him.
Marcel Goc - it'll be OK, JR. It'll be OK...
Shane O`Brien - it's still a bit of a head-scratcher as to why he's gone, when he landed with Colorado for a reasonable price. He played a major role on the penalty kill.
Matthew Lombardi & Cody Franson - David Poile made a move to avoid the risk of carrying Lombardi's salary without getting any performance out of it, but to our surprise, Lombardi is playing on Opening Night while Mike Fisher is not. Franson, meanwhile, seems mystified to have landed in the press box for Ron Wilson.
Story Lines To Follow
Contracts For The Big 3
Pekka Rinne, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are the biggest stars on the team, and all need new contracts next summer. Rinne and Suter will be unrestricted, while Weber is still restricted for one more year. Will any or all of them sign extensions during the season? Will the media in pretty much every city the Preds travel to write about this issue? Count on it...
Willy's Big Year
Another guy skating for a new contract is Colin Wilson, who appears primed to suit up on a top scoring line and lead the way up front. Will he seize the opportunity and secure his place here, or find himself shipped out of town?
The Baby Blueline
We saw glimpses of potential from three stellar prospects during Training Camp - Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm. To what extent will these three crack the Preds lineup and provide some extra zip from the back end?
Spaling's Time
Nick Spaling earned himself a full-time checking and PK job last season, but does he have more to offer?
Tootoo 2.0
Jordin Tootoo looked like a changed man, and hockey player, after returning from his time away from the team last season to battle personal issues. Is he now ready to deliver a full, productive season as more than just an agitator?
Lane Lambert Living Large
There's a fresh face behind the bench as former Milwaukee head coach Lane Lambert joins the Preds as an assistant, while Brent Peterson plays "Eye in the Sky" from one of the boxes high above the ice. Meanwhile, Kirk Muller takes over as Admirals boss, and I'm sure we'll hear about rumors of him being in the mix for an NHL head coaching job soon.
Competitive Outlook
The Predators have assembled some All-World talent in the Big 3, and the nice thing is, those are the three players who will spend the most time on the ice. That trio holds an edge over any other team in the West, and provides a foundation around which the rest of the team operates. They'll need Mike Fisher to recover soon from his shoulder surgery in order to boast the depth at center that they'd like, and there will be many, many nights when fans will wonder where the goals will come from, but this should prove to be another playoff-worthy squad.
The wild card is what happens with the team's budget, and whether they can add some scoring punch during the season. Assuming that the fan support continues to grow like it has in recent years (and there's every reason to believe that will happen), will the Predators be positioned to make a splashy pickup that gives them the complete package for a playoff drive? Stay tuned...
The Prediction
In a jam-packed Central Division, the Preds place 3rd behind Chicago & Detroit, edging out St. Louis and Columbus for one of the final playoff spots in the West (I'll pick 7th). The Central should be very, very competitive this year, and while I can't pick Nashville as the favorite to win, they have a chance - and it's a worthy goal to aspire to. With the Preds kicking off their 13th NHL season, it's time to start hanging some banners from the rafters.
And in those playoffs? Well, we'll save that prediction for April...
And as promised, here are my projections for the main offensive contributors this season, as first laid out in my fantasy hockey ebook:
| Player | Pos | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG | PPA | +/- | PIM | Shots | Comment |
| Patric Hornqvist | R | 80 | 28 | 27 | 55 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 280 | Will more support up front lead to a rebound season? |
| Martin Erat | R | 70 | 18 | 37 | 55 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 40 | 125 | We'd love to see him get off to a strong start. |
| Sergei Kostitsyn | L | 82 | 18 | 35 | 53 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 30 | 120 | The goals last year were a fluke, but he's a solid complementary performer. |
| Colin Wilson | L | 82 | 24 | 26 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 30 | 160 | The stage is set for a breakout campaign. |
| Shea Weber | D | 82 | 14 | 31 | 45 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 70 | 240 | He's looking to build upon that $7.5 million salary with another huge season. |
| David Legwand | C | 75 | 18 | 27 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 160 | The foundation upon which the rest of the gang up front do their work. |
| Ryan Suter | D | 82 | 5 | 37 | 42 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 60 | 130 | With unrestricted free agency coming up, he must've been giddy after seeing Kristian Ehrhoff's deal. |
| Mike Fisher | C | 75 | 17 | 23 | 40 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 70 | 170 | Will his surgically-repaired shoulder prove to be an issue all year? |
| Jonathon Blum | D | 82 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 50 | 110 | A few growing pains are to be expected, but we'll be interested to see his PP work. |
| Cal O'Reilly | C | 65 | 9 | 24 | 33 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 70 | The future is now, and Cal needs to prove that last season's hot start was for real. |
| Niclas Bergfors | R | 82 | 17 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 160 | Can the shootist earn the trust of the coaching staff? |
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No, constant nagging at Kostitsyn’s goal total as a “fluke, fluke, fluke I tell ya” already is.
by Hockey Hillbilly on Oct 6, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
main offensive contributers
no toots huh?
5 goals is major?
5 G and 37 A...
…from a D-man seems pretty major, especially on a team that’s expected to be as offensively-starved as this one. Ability to set up scoring playing on a consistent basis can be almost as valuable as actually finishing off the play and putting the puck in the net.
by Old Kentucky Shark on Oct 6, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Preds have been in need of scoring. Shoot the puck son.(not in your own net) If he shoots more, the defense cannot afford to cheat towards Weber, and if not a goal there’s a possible rebound and goal for Hornquist. The lack of shooting makes me think back to playing football as a kid with an all time quarterback. All others are covered man-for-man. Neglecting the man advantage. With a poor PP, the lack of Suter shots could be part of the problem. 4 goals last season and the season before are in need of improvement. 7 goals each of the two seasons previous, so I hope you don’t digress more. Does anyone have a breakdown of Suter’s primary and secondary assists?
Tootoo
only put up 18 points last season, but much of that was after he returned. He went on to put up 6 points (1g, 5a) in 12 playoff games. I’m calling 22 for 13g, 20a – 33p this season. (that’s more love than Bergfors got)
by Only Fan In J.C. ? on Oct 7, 2011 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
From our friends at SCH...
They’ve got us 7th (3rd in the Central) and then subsequently taking out San Jose…
A very colorful take on the West (and the East, somewhat). And by “colorful”, I mean liberal use of sentence enhancing profanity. Love those guys.
To a nice steak dinner?
That team is the only one that has blasted the hell out of the Preds in the playoffs ever.. and did it twice.
Tootoo and Erat
22 could be our new sparkplug role that Sully left open and Erat has the tools to put up until the cows come home if he can just stay healthy.
I was going to vote super optimistic...
…but decided to stick with 3rd. Detroit’s got at least (AT LEAST) 1 more year of division domination, while Chicago just doesn’t have a whole lot of weakness with Crawford as the full time net-minder. I agree with the assessment that this team starts slow and get amazing by the end of the year, but I think the early bumps will keep us out of a division running.
If this team turns into the kind of team that can’t be scored on and pots 3 goals per game by the end of the season, though, I don’t imagine it’ll matter which playoff seed we have going in.
We'll miss you Belak...
Go Predators!
Per my season predictions, we won’t finish as high as we’d like (don’t wanna say the word that comes after 4th). :D
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Oct 6, 2011 7:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
So on my way into work, I’m listening to the Toronto-Montreal game on XM radio and of course Lombardi scores the first goal of the game shorthanded! :/
Yup
Just saw the highlight, he was battling hard in front of the net., looked fearless. I wish him the best, but BOOOO.
"Next time someone tells you Nashville’s not a hockey town, tell ‘em to come to Smashville and try some of the home cookin’." - TSN Broadcaster
by Go_Titans_Preds_USC on Oct 6, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this was No. 4 on my list of Ways the Offseason Could Be Worse. Good for Matt, don’t get me wrong. Bad luck for us, I guess. And yeah, just one game. But I wonder sometimes how this story would be playing in Toronto if the situation was reversed.
by el pucko on Oct 6, 2011 10:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Really quite amazing how quickly Lombardi recovered once we traded him. His goal tonight and whatever else he might do this season bothers me less than the zero goals and zero assists we’re getting by not using at least part of his departed contract on a similiar level of player.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Oct 7, 2011 1:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
especially due
his complete lack of progress in recovering while he was with the Predators. I’m baffled.
by Only Fan In J.C. ? on Oct 7, 2011 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Division title is ours
Like the header says, “hard to play against, harder to beat”.
We’re good. Our 3rd and 4th lines are better than most. Our back end is the best in the biz. This is it.
Less than 24 $%@#ing hours to go, baby.
by Marcus Newman on Oct 6, 2011 9:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
There’s a way to sell the team to the public, “our bottom two lines are better than your’s”! :D
It’s those top two lines that I worry about………
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Oct 7, 2011 1:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I am cautiously optimistic
I predict several long winning streaks, followed by some short losing streaks. During the winning streaks we will all think they are winning the cup, during the losing streaks we will all think the end is nigh. My prediction: 2nd in the central, 5th in the west. I also predict a star forward picked up near the trade deadline.
Beer... Now there's a temporary solution.-Homer Simpson
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Dirk Hoag is the Forechecker, churner of NHL stats & analysis, and managing editor of On the Forecheck.
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