Statistical Goalie "worth"

I don’t know how much you watch goalies or how much you watch Thomas or what you look for when you watch them. You may very well do a great deal of this. However, there are a number of things about what you’ve said that make me very skeptical of your position.

First, the fact that you are openly unwilling to be convinced. Especially since I never compared the two players in any way, much less said Thomas was “better.”

Second, the fact that you seem to think that Rinne doesn’t “get out of position” and have to make “desperate diving saves.” If that isn’t what you meant, please feel free to clarify.

Third, Thomas has exceptional rebound control.

Fourth, “in position” doesn’t really mean very much on a pass across the crease, which is where a lot of these diving plays happen. Only if you are a goalie dedicated to the butterfly blocker-type save does that make sense. If you get square to the puck on the puck carrier, you are out of position in relation to the guy on your back door and when that pass goes, it goes a lot faster than a human can.

Fifth, I’ve seen Martin Brodeur calculate the angle of his paddle to bring the puck to where he wants it while there are people bumping into him. He has pretty damn good control over what he’s doing.

All goalies make mistakes and have off days. All of these guys are capable of being ordinary on any given day or any given save. Tim Thomas is no exception.

But I’ve watched enough video of him and of what goalies tend to do in specific situations to be convinced that what analysts are saying is often true. He has stretches of time when knows where his limbs are in relation to the rest of his body, the puck, and the goal line, and he knows that to a exquisite degree and can take advantage of it.

I maintain skepticism about Thomas for the same reason I maintain skepticism about Brodeur—the saves that both are associated with are, all too often, diving desperation diving saves. Those are great, but I’d rather a goalie with exceptional rebound control (see: Pekka Rinne)

So, yeah. Thomas is good. But no one will convince me that he’s better than Rinne, at least not with any of the arguments I’ve heard so far.

Does it matter how you stop shots as long as you, you know, stop them? Thomas has been the best since the lockout at stopping pucks, plain and simple. Can it continue? I’d attribute it not continuing more to age than style.

You, sir, are a trouble-maker.