Nashville Predators 30-Game Report Card: The Defense
A talented, home-grown group of defensemen has long been a Nashville Predators hallmark, and never has that been more relied upon than this fall, as multiple rookies were expected to fill regular spots in the lineup, while others continue working their way toward the NHL. How has this strategy worked so far, however? It's time to break down the individual performance of the Preds' blueliners this season and hand out some grades...
First, let's lay out the Behind The Net data, along with my Adjusted Corsi (which compensates for guys who start shifts in the defensive zone often or get cushy starts in the offensive end). A legend can be found at the bottom.
NOTE: Grades are relative to an individual's role on the team, i.e. Shea Weber's expectations are higher than Jonathon Blum's.
| Name | GP | TOI | CORSI | CORSI REL | Net ZS | Adj Corsi | SPCT | SVPCT | PDO | G/60 | A/60 | Pts/60 | CORSI Rel QoC | CORSI Rel QoT |
| Jonathon Blum | 27 | 14.3 | -14.97 | -6.4 | -28 | -10.17 | 10.7 | 887 | 994 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.78 | -0.50 | -2.18 |
| Francis Bouillon | 18 | 16.2 | -8.22 | -1.5 | -18 | -4.15 | 7.7 | 895 | 972 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 | +1.04 | -0.54 |
| Jack Hillen | 28 | 12.8 | -16.61 | -10.1 | -31 | -10.89 | 7.3 | 936 | 1009 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.84 | -0.08 | -2.81 |
| Kevin Klein | 28 | 16.6 | -13.34 | -6.1 | -40 | -7.64 | 7.3 | 901 | 974 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.65 | +0.93 | -0.91 |
| Ryan Suter | 30 | 19.2 | -4.18 | +8.6 | -27 | -1.08 | 8.2 | 950 | 1032 | 0.10 | 0.74 | 0.84 | +1.41 | +3.60 |
| Shea Weber | 30 | 18.8 | -0.75 | +14.2 | -43 | +4.29 | 8.2 | 958 | 1040 | 0.11 | 0.85 | 0.96 | +1.33 | +2.67 |
The perils of PDO caught up with Blum this fall, after some insanely fortunate results in 23 games last season. Sophomore slumps are quite common, however, so the hope here is that a few weeks in Milwaukee will get him back on track. In particular, his lack of production on the power play was a disappointment, as it was hoped that he could fill Cody Franson's shoes to some extent there.
Grade: D+
His return from Injured Reserve helped the team move rookies like Blum back to the 3rd pair, which in and of itself provides value to the team at large, even though his statistical results don't jump off the page. The model in Nashville is for the top pair to lead the way, and to basically break even (or stay close to it) elsewhere, so that extent Bouillon's nickname should be changed from The Cube to "The Tourniquet". Just slowing down the bleeding while taking on tough competition is a job well done here.
His early results on the penalty kill have been nightmarish, but we'll reserve judgement there due to small sample size and the injury issues he's working through.
Grade: B
As a depth addition to the lineup, Hillen has given the Preds an option to plug into the lineup while Bouillon was injured and rookies learned the ropes. His roster spot is not assured, however, as he's been scratched twice already this season.
Hillen's results portray a little something for everyone - some opportunistic offense, for sure, but the overall possession numbers are quite poor, especially considering the relatively soft opposition he faces.
Grade: C+
The everlasting lightning rod of the Predators fan base, Klein naturally draws criticism for one of the worst Plus/Minus ratings in entire NHL. The 5-on-5 possession numbers are indeed pretty grizzly, and the only qualifications one can offer are the stiff competition he faces and lack of a consistent partner to work with. He has been a heavy lifter on the penalty kill, and one underrated aspect of his game is the fact that he takes so few penalties while defending Top 6 forwards night after night.
Grade: C-
Hmm... somebody smells a new contract, eh? Suter is on his way to posting career-best results in just about every category. He soaks up major minutes (2nd in the league in average TOI), drives the play positively compared to how the team does when he's on the bench, kills penalties with aplomb and is putting up some results on the power play, too. While I wouldn't expect that Team Save Percentage of .950 in 5-on-5 play to hold up (meaning we'll see some more goals scored against while he's on the ice), that isn't likely to get in the way of Suter putting together a career year.
As I wrote recently, he's the head of the upcoming class of unrestricted free agent defensemen, and could surely command a king's ransom on the open market. We'll leave room for an A+ here if Ryan decides to go with the hometown discount and sign a long-term extension soon.
Grade: A
The Captain is on his way to setting personal highs as well in a number of areas. He's dominating play at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill as well. And as we now know, he can score from anywhere in the building, even Section 317. Together with Suter, he takes on the toughest of the tough and comes out ahead, making them a clear-cut pick as the NHL's top defense pair.
You won't find any complaints about his $7.5 million salary here. Weber is now in his 4th consecutive season of elite performance, and there's no reason to believe that will let up any time soon. Once the calendar flips over to January, we can start wondering if and when an extension will get worked out with the Preds.
Grade: A
| Legend | |
| CORSI | The balance of Total Shots For & Against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 while this player is on the ice. |
| CORSI REL | The difference between the team's Corsi when this player is on the ice, and when he's on the bench. |
| Net ZS | How often a player's shift starts in the Offensive Zone minus the Defensive. |
| Adj Corsi | Corsi adjusted for Zone Starts. |
| SPCT | Team Shooting Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5. |
| SVPCT | Team Save Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5. |
| PDO | SPCT + SVPCT, this trends strongly towards 1000. Extreme values are typically signs of "puck luck". |
| G/60 | Goals scored by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. |
| A/60 | Assists by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. |
| Pts/60 | Points by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. |
| CORSI Rel QoC | Quality of Competition calculated using Relative Corsi. |
| CORSI Rel QoT | Quality of Teammates calculated using Relative Corsi. |
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I think Hillen gets a bad wrap sometimes
He seems to make some pretty good decisions on the ice, and I’ve seen him play pretty well. I don’t have any stats or examples to back that up, but It’s just a feel I get from him when I see that he’s on the ice.
by Preds of State on Dec 15, 2011 1:44 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agree...
Plus his D partners who play with him seem to play better. His Corsi numbers could be better, but I think his game is more about limiting good scoring chances and less about preventing shots. His save %, G/60, P/60 are some of the highest on the team.
The problem with Hillen is that he’s fine if the attacker is in front of him, but the second he has to chase even a little bit he starts making the big mistakes and taking penalties.
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Boy, I don't see that at all.....
Hillen has only 12 PIMs, the last penalty in a game way back on Nov. 19. He is one of the fastest skaters on the team, so I don’t see him having a problem catching up to a guy from behind and taking a penalty. Are you sure you weren’t thinking of Bouillon?
I, too, am impressed with Josi’s play thus far.
by Preds of State on Dec 15, 2011 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
Something I should have noted
I was just looking at guys with at least 10 games played.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and a guy who can help you save money on all things hockey-related at Hockey Gear HQ.
While we all love to hate on Klein, and ill admit i enjoy it too, I do feel his turnovers get magnified by us because of it. Do they still hurt, yes, but the guy is a warrior in every sense of the word. He has no problems throwing his body around at players or at a puck. Heck you could almost put him in the goalie category cause he has had a few stellar saves this year. I have to say if he were to go we have no one to step in and take his role on the way he does. If he could retain the puck a bit more he would be a solid 2nd line guy but such is the Kleinundrum
Kleinundrum
I like that.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and a guy who can help you save money on all things hockey-related at Hockey Gear HQ.
aahh.. KK.
He’s not a good enough shooter to be considered an offensive defenseman, nor is he a shut down guy to be considered a defensive defenseman (a la Zanon). He’s just this weird tweener who makes too many mistakes and I hate him. If given the opportunity, I’d waive him.
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The "Re-Kleiner"
Best seat in the house for all of the oppositions goals.
No doubt the suter/ weber combo receives an"A". Hillen is steady, but I still believe he needs to be paired with a bigger body partner.
Klein has improved and I would raise his grade, if for no other reason because he stands up for his teammates.
The cube settles down the other pairings.
My concern for our team in particular and the defense in general is our overall size. We appear to be a team who will,struggle with teams with larger forwards.
My hockey team is better than your hockey team
Klein
is so dumb, he stands up for his teammates only to get his face pummeled into baby food.
hockey connoisseur. t-shirt addict. not famous. nerd.
As a defender of Klein, I think it should be pointed out that he is trending up. Positive corsi in last three games and Cube is reaching last years play level, making the pair very stingy on D. On the whole, since start of season, I would have, at least, given him a C+.
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There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
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by cisar on Dec 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
defence
hillen numbers are not better than Blum and klein are not much better.also who has more upside blum/hillen or the cube?seems to me trotz needs to communicate with the younger players
I think the thing your analysis most clearly illustrates, Dirkster, is just how important Weber and Suter are to the team. Hillen has looked the worst overall to me because of his inability to gain or maintain possession of the puck, which you more or less pointed out. I think that’s the main factor in his ugly corsi. It seems that in the NHL you basically have, offensive defensmen, stay at home defensemen, all-around defensmen, and flying by the seat of their pants defensemen (see Jack Hillen). At least he only costs us $7.35/hr or whatever…
I think the biggest issue with our bottom 4 are the lack of size. …which, in hindsight, makes it that much tougher to know that we let SOB walk for next to nothing and lost Franson because of our bottom line.
by Marcus Newman on Dec 15, 2011 1:16 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
i agree about size. add suter too in the mix. i remember bertuzzi treating him as a bothersome gnat last season.
The D-Corps is going to get smaller and slower once Suter leaves. If they don’t announce something by the end of January, I am afraid Suter is gone. And unless they spend some money on a top forward, I think Suter will not stay in Nashville. I think he wants to play for a cap team with a real chance to win the cup.
kleiner
i wish he would have worked out on the power play.
I don't like Weber's contract...
… it is too short.
(Just like how Rinne’s is too long)
We're just an O'Brien away from having the right D.
We just lack what Obie brought us last season. Josi getting hurt in camp threw a monkey wrench into the plans, but he looks like a keeper.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Dec 16, 2011 12:30 AM EST via mobile reply actions

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