Nashville Predators 30-Game Report Cards: The Centers

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 15, 2011 4:18 PM EST in Nashville Predators Analysis

We've covered the goaltenders and the defense, so now it's time to move up the middle and examine the Nashville Predators centers, now that the team has passed the 30-Game mark. Which guys are getting it done, and which ones aren't? Just follow after the jump for the latest grades...

First up, the advanced stats from Behind the Net, including a little extra prestidigitation on my part (legend at bottom). The grades, as with the others in this series, are relative to reasonable expectations for that player heading into this season.

Name	GP	TOI	CORSI	CORSI REL	Net ZS	Adj Corsi	SPCT	SVPCT	PDO	G/60	A/60	Pts/60	CORSI Rel QoC	CORSI Rel QoT
Mike Fisher	22	15.2	-10.25	-8.00	-25	-5.30	10.1	931	1032	0.90	1.08	1.98	+1.44	+2.86
Blake Geoffrion	19	8.9	-16.01	-4.80	-41	+0.05	5.2	965	1018	0.00	0.72	0.72	-1.13	-2.50
David Legwand	26	13.8	-1.17	+11.40	-32	+4.72	8.4	914	999	0.67	0.67	1.34	+1.07	+5.51
Craig Smith	30	13.0	-9.27	+0.10	-7	-8.08	9.4	922	1017	0.62	1.39	2.01	+1.38	+1.21
Jerred Smithson	30	10.6	-23.51	-18.20	-94	-3.91	8.0	920	1000	0.19	0.19	0.38	+0.49	-2.85
Nick Spaling	25	13.1	-14.87	-7.90	-45	-5.79	7.5	924	1000	0.73	0.73	1.46	+0.71	-2.86

Mike Fisher

#12 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 208

Born: Jun 05, 1980

Expectation: 1st/2nd line center, two-way contributor

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - Mike Fisher	22	6	7	13	-1	11	1	0	1	52.6	49	12.2

Much like Legwand in years past, Fisher's presence in the lineup isn't so much about putting up eye-popping numbers as it is shoring up the team's depth chart and pushing less experienced or talented players back down to the 3rd or 4th lines. He hasn't done much on the power play yet despite getting more than 2 minutes per game there, and his 5-on-5 possession numbers could stand quite a bit of improvement.

The biggest question going forward with Fisher is whether his surgically repaired shoulder continues to strengthen, along with his overall game, or whether other injuries undermine his performance as they've done in the past.

Grade: B

Blake Geoffrion

#5 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Born: Feb 03, 1988

Expectation: Depth forward

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - Blake Geoffrion	19	0	2	2	0	13	0	0	0	46.2	7	0

This season just never got rolling for Geoffrion offensively, but I will say in his defense that he got stuck with a difficult workload (look at those Zone Starts), and handled that burden relatively well. He has to find a way to drive the play more aggressively, however, as 7 shots on goal in 19 games makes even Sergei Kostitsyn look shot-happy. That team on-ice shooting percentage of 5.2 looks more like poor puck luck than anything else (although of course he rarely had gifted offensive linemates to work with). In a secondary role on the penalty kill, he also managed to go 19 games without a goal being scored against him in 4-on-5 play.

So I'll hold out hope that after a few weeks in Milwaukee, he gets another chance with the big club, as I'd like to see what he could do with higher-quality linemates.

Grade: C-

David Legwand

#11 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 204

Born: Aug 17, 1980

Expectation: 1st/2nd line center, two-way contributor

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - David Legwand	26	7	13	20	0	6	2	0	1	46.9	57	12.2

Leggy is getting the job done as a true two-way center, pushing the flow positively in 5-on-5 (once you adjust for those negative Zone Starts) and leading the surge on the Predators' power play, too. The only negatives so far are some poor PK results in the early going.

Grade: A-

Craig Smith

#15 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 197

Born: Sep 05, 1989

Expectation: Depth forward

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - Craig Smith	30	8	15	23	0	20	4	0	0	43.5	84	9.5

Offensively, the Honey Badger has been a revelation. He leads the Nashville forwards in shots on goal, and seems to add some zip to whichever line he plays with on a given night. As a rookie, however, he still has aspects of his game that will take a while to round into shape. There are some adventures in the defensive zone when he's out there, but the offensive contributions are too great to be ignored. If he didn't come out of nowhere to lead this team in scoring, just imagine how things would look.

Yes, I know he's been moved around quite a bit, but I included him with the centers for this piece.

Grade: A

Jerred Smithson

#25 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-3

Weight: 209

Born: Feb 04, 1979

Expectation: Penalty killer & faceoff specialist

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - Jerred Smithson	30	1	1	2	-5	22	0	0	0	53.2	19	5.2

Smitty's doing what he always does - winning faceoffs, killing penalties, and blocking shots. I have to wonder if some of those thumpers are taking their toll, however, as there have been times that he looks like he's laboring out there.

Grade: B

Nick Spaling

#13 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 198

Born: Sep 19, 1988

Expectation: Two-way forward, possible Top 6

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	FO Win%	SOG	PCT
2011 - Nick Spaling	25	4	5	9	-3	6	0	0	2	50.6	33	12.1

I know there was talk from Preds management about Spaling developing into a Top 6 forward this season, but I just don't see it happening any time soon. The penalty killing isn't there yet this season, and he's not faring well in 5-on-5, either. He could have a fine career as a 3rd- or 4th-liner, so this grade is a particularly tricky one. Where does one set the expectation here?

Grade: C+

Legend
CORSI	The balance of Total Shots For & Against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 while this player is on the ice.
CORSI REL	The difference between the team's Corsi when this player is on the ice, and when he's on the bench.
Net ZS	How often a player's shift starts in the Offensive Zone minus the Defensive.
Adj Corsi	Corsi adjusted for Zone Starts. Each marginal start at either end of the ice is adjusted by 1.1 Corsi events.
SPCT	Team Shooting Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5.
SVPCT	Team Save Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5.
PDO	SPCT + SVPCT, this trends strongly towards 1000. Extreme values are typically signs of "puck luck".
G/60	Goals scored by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.
A/60	Assists by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.
Pts/60	Points by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.
CORSI Rel QoC	Quality of Competition calculated using Relative Corsi.
CORSI Rel QoT	Quality of Teammates calculated using Relative Corsi.

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Comments

too kind

to Legwand. He has sputtered out of late. At best a B+ imho.

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by Shawn Kehoe on Dec 15, 2011 5:45 PM EST reply actions

So it begins...

by Sam Page on Dec 15, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Grades way to generous.

What grade would someone who put up, let’s say, 15 goals and 20 assists and played good D as well if we’re giving out A’s to guys with half those numbers? While some of our forwards have played well for the most part so far this season, none of them are higher than a B grade.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Dec 15, 2011 6:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Botched that first sentence, but you get where I’m going with it.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Dec 15, 2011 6:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I think you have to look at the grades as weighed against the expectations and potential of the player in question. it seems that is how Dirk goes about it and at least seems to be consistent. Like a 60 point pace for Leggy with the kind of minutes he plays? You could argue him down from an “A” maybe but it’s hard to imagine anyone that wouldn’t consider that better than average output…

I think Badger is the only center that is a clear cut “A” though. A Preds rookie with 23 points in 30 games? Who saw that coming?

I did notice that Willy is curiously missing from this list… Guess he is officially a winger now?

by Marcus Newman on Dec 15, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

I think you have that exactly right. No fair to expect the same thing from one kid who loves to write papers, and another kid who loves to give presentations (as random examples). You have to grade based on what you expect specifically from that one kid, based on what you think they are personally capable of. Other wise, Phil Kessel gets an A, and everyone else, even if they’re working their butts off, gets a C.

Hands go uuppp..... AND THEY STAY THERE!
-nashvillepredators-

by davisca on Dec 16, 2011 4:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Really?
I think if a kid does crappy work, he should get a crappy grade. He doesn’t deserve a good grade because you expected REALLY crappy work, does he? I can see that sort of thing in the lower grades- C,D,F, but not into A,B territory.

World Wide Weber.
There is no tenderness or humanity in fanaticism.
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by cisar on Dec 17, 2011 1:25 AM EST up reply actions