It's OK, Big Ern. In this case, fighting helps you on this Report Card.
It's time to wrap up our series of 30-Game Report Cards with the wingers, the guys whose job it is to battle along the boards and light up the scoreboard for the Nashville Predators. Which one are delivering the results, and which need to step up their game?
Just follow after the jump to find out...
Save money on Preds tickets by taking the OTF Discount!
First up, the advanced stats from Behind the Net, including a little extra prestidigitation on my part (legend at bottom). The grades, as with the others in this series, are relative to reasonable expectations for that player heading into this season.
|Name||GP||TOI||CORSI||CORSI REL||Net ZS||Adj Corsi||SPCT||SVPCT||PDO||G/60||A/60||Pts/60||CORSI Rel QoC||CORSI Rel QoT|
#10 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators
Aug 29, 1981
Expectation: Offensive leader
|2011 - Martin Erat||22||5||12||17||2||10||0||1||1||34||14.7|
Marty faces the toughest opponents night-in, night-out, and has managed to put up decent results so far, even though his special teams work has been fairly mediocre, both on the power play and penalty kill. Our Christmas wish is to have him enjoy a good stretch of health, as it always seems like an injury or two comes along to derail his season each year.
#24 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators
Jun 01, 1988
Expectation: Depth forward
|2011 - Matt Halischuk||30||6||3||9||1||23||0||0||1||44||13.6|
The fans love "Hustlechuk" for the occasional goal which is created by his straight-ahead, hard-charging style of play, but I'm not a fan of how too much of his time is spent in the defensive zone chasing opposing forwards. I will give him credit for doing a good job killing penalties so far this season, but in 5-on-5, there's a real mess here. He boasts the 5th-worst Corsi among all forwards with 20 GP and 10 minutes/game of 5-on-5 in the entire league, and unlike Jerred Smithson, that can't be explained away by a heavy dose of tough defensive Zone Starts.
He's an excellent example of how the stats can point out what's going on between the highlights. Yes, those great plays you see once every week or two are endearing, but it's what happens in between that causes concern. I'd be fine with a 4th line of, say, Smithson-Spaling-Halischuk, but playing him above that level right now leaves the team at a disadvantage.
#27 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators
Jan 01, 1987
Expectation: Offensive leader
|2011 - Patric Hornqvist||29||8||5||13||0||18||1||0||1||75||10.6|
Just call him the Swedish Streak. Outside of a torrid fortnight in late October/early November, Hornqvist has been largely invisible this season (just look at that lack of production on the power play). At least he's still creating shots, so there's hope that the goal-scoring will come around, but things need to pick up soon.
#74 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators
Mar 20, 1987
Expectation: Two-way Top 6 forward
|2011 - Sergei Kostitsyn||24||4||9||13||-1||16||1||0||0||23||17.3|
He earned himself a short stint in Barry Trotz's doghouse during a lackluster early portion of the season, and struggles to assert himself on a consistent basis offensively. He still suffers from the "pass first, second, and third" mentality that has frustrated fans at times, and is actually on pace to put fewer shots on goal than last season.
|2011 - Brian McGrattan||20||0||2||2||-2||39||0||0||0||6||0|
These grades are set relative to a player's expectation, so you can't complain about McGrattan's performance here. He pounds the snot out of opponents and gets the crowd involved, too. His November 17 bout with Toronto's Jay Rosehill is the top-rated fight of the year at HockeyFights.com, and his battle with New Jersey's Cam Janssen ranks 4th.
#22 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators
Feb 2, 1983
Expectation: Two-way forward, agitator
|2011 - Jordin Tootoo||28||4||7||11||-1||45||1||0||1||53||7.5|
For the last three weeks or so, Tootoo has been displaying the combination of athleticism, toughness and skill that fans have been awaiting for years. Can he keep it up? There's a contract on the line for this longtime Pred, and it'll be a big one if he can.
The first 19 games were another story, however, as he notched just 3 assists. His overall play is still characterized by forehead-slap-inducing turnovers at times and instances where he gets out of control. In many ways, he reminds me of a young power pitcher in baseball who hasn't learned to take a slight edge off the fastball to gain a bit more accuracy.
He is drawing penalties at a pretty good clip, which is helping to set up what has been a surprisingly strong Nashville power play.
|2011 - Colin Wilson||30||8||11||19||-1||13||4||0||3||55||14.5|
Another young forward who is due for a contract this summer, Colin Wilson has definitively taken a step forward this season. His possession numbers are among the very best on the team, and his Plus/Minus of -1 is deceptively low, given the .881 Save Percentage Nashville goalies are putting up while behind him in 5-on-5 play (lowest among the regular players, and you'd be hard-pressed to argue that's Willy's fault).
And the nifty thing is that when you balance how many penalties a guy draws against how many he takes (what I used to tally as Penalty Plus/Minus), Wilson is just a smidge behind Jordin Tootoo in terms of how many power plays he's creating for the Preds. In the offensive zone he's showing greater vision to distribute the puck after creating space for himself, and he's contributing in a larger role on the power play, too.
|CORSI||The balance of Total Shots For & Against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 while this player is on the ice.|
|CORSI REL||The difference between the team's Corsi when this player is on the ice, and when he's on the bench.|
|Net ZS||How often a player's shift starts in the Offensive Zone minus the Defensive.|
|Adj Corsi||Corsi adjusted for Zone Starts.|
|SPCT||Team Shooting Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5.|
|SVPCT||Team Save Percentage while this player is on the ice in 5-on-5.|
|PDO||SPCT + SVPCT, this trends strongly towards 1000. Extreme values are typically signs of "puck luck".|
|G/60||Goals scored by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.|
|A/60||Assists by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.|
|Pts/60||Points by this player per 60 minutes of 5-on-5.|
|CORSI Rel QoC||Quality of Competition calculated using Relative Corsi.|
|CORSI Rel QoT||Quality of Teammates calculated using Relative Corsi.|