NHL Strength Of Schedule: Nashville Predators Face A Tough Road Ahead

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 21, 2011 5:05 PM EST in Statistical Analysis

If the Nashville Predators are going to return to the playoffs for the seventh time in eight seasons, they'll have to fight their way through what may be the NHL's most difficult remaining schedule.

A conversation this morning with Alec Brownscome of Maple Leafs Hot Stove prompted me to revisit some work I do each summer, compiling the NHL Super Schedule which focuses mostly on travel mileage and the number of back-to-back games played by each team in the league.

Once we bring into consideration the relative strength of the opponents each teams has faced so far, and what remains on their schedule, we can get some insight on which teams have an easier or more difficult road to the Stanley Cup playoffs. As it turns out, the Preds might have the toughest slate of remaining opponents in the entire league,

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The table below lays out the travel mileage, number of back-to-back sets (pairs of games played on consecutive nights) and Average Opponent Winning Percentage for each team, broken down by the games they've played so far, and what remains on the schedule. You can click on any column header to re-sort the table by that value.

Team	Games Played	Miles Traveled	Bk-to-Bk Sets	Avg Opp Win%	Games Remaining	Miles To Go	Bk-to-Bk Sets	Avg Opp Win%
New York Islanders	31	14,166	2	.543	51	18,244	11	.502
Anaheim Ducks	33	25,911	5	.543	49	24,219	8	.498
Columbus Blue Jackets	33	14,368	5	.536	49	28,463	11	.517
Colorado Avalanche	34	18,904	3	.529	48	30,041	7	.490
Carolina Hurricanes	34	15,111	6	.528	48	23,003	10	.490
Edmonton Oilers	33	18,950	7	.527	49	31,056	5	.494
Los Angeles Kings	33	24,431	5	.526	49	31,160	10	.494
San Jose Sharks	30	15,382	5	.523	52	28,612	9	.483
Phoenix Coyotes	33	20,526	4	.513	49	28,666	9	.494
Ottawa Senators	34	14,528	6	.511	48	19,387	11	.494
Calgary Flames	34	21,648	4	.511	48	27,456	6	.502
Montreal Canadiens	34	17,846	5	.509	48	21,328	8	.506
Toronto Maple Leafs	33	12,657	6	.507	49	19,582	11	.495
Tampa Bay Lightning	32	16,983	3	.505	50	26,734	7	.491
St. Louis Blues	32	15,752	6	.499	50	23,029	11	.497
Washington Capitals	32	16,528	3	.497	50	21,441	10	.491
Winnipeg Jets	33	16,215	4	.495	49	28,412	10	.497
Florida Panthers	34	22,737	3	.493	48	30,014	11	.491
Pittsburgh Penguins	34	18,125	5	.490	48	15,314	10	.509
Detroit Red Wings	32	16,617	6	.486	50	26,248	8	.504
New Jersey Devils	33	16,970	8	.485	49	11,627	7	.511
Vancouver Canucks	33	20,151	5	.482	49	26,675	6	.501
Buffalo Sabres	33	16,972	9	.480	49	18,939	12	.508
Minnesota Wild	35	18,230	5	.477	47	24,630	6	.510
Dallas Stars	32	17,531	6	.475	50	32,091	8	.505
Nashville Predators	33	16,602	4	.475	49	22,932	7	.525
Chicago Blackhawks	34	17,900	7	.469	48	21,388	10	.519
Philadelphia Flyers	32	15,156	6	.469	50	19,037	7	.514
New York Rangers	31	23,324	4	.461	51	13,061	10	.514
Boston Bruins	32	10,690	3	.458	50	23,080	10	.499

Note 1: I'm using Average Winning Percentage here, not Points Percentage. In terms of how strong teams are, I don't care whether they are able to lose in OT vs. regulation, I'm only looking at Wins & Losses.

Note 2: If you want to reference this info on your own site, feel free to copy & paste this table into your own post, I just request a link back here noting where you got it from. You'll want to sort it the way you like before copying, I'm not sure if that magic will follow the data.

For the Predators, that .525 average opponents' winning percentage could account for something around 2.5 points in the standings when compared to playing against an average (.500) schedule. As we've seen in years past, that can easily be the margin between making the playoffs and not.

Around the NHL, there are some other items of note, however. The San Jose Sharks may have the added bonus of a relatively soft schedule to help them overtake Dallas for the Pacific Division lead (to go along with their much stronger fundamental metrics), while the New York Rangers will face the biggest difference in their past vs. future schedule (going from an average opponents' win % of .461 to .514). The Blueshirts also have 10 sets of back-to-back games on their schedule, after playing in just 4 so far.

So how do you think the strength of schedule might impact the playoff chase in either conference?

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Comments

From the 5th easiest to the toughest—doesn’t bode well for a team that at best is a marginal playoff team to begin with.

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by shoot the puck on Dec 21, 2011 5:41 PM EST reply actions

I guess we will see

If we are a better team the second half of the year than we are the first. We remember what you said Poile.

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by Preds of State on Dec 21, 2011 5:44 PM EST reply actions

Isn’t much different than any year….I noticed all the central division teams have the highest winning % remaining to play……Probably because we are playing each other?

Gotta win in within the division……Hasn’t changed a bit.

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by Predator Don on Dec 21, 2011 6:16 PM EST reply actions

Very true. Our schedule this season is one of the reasons I picked us to just miss the playoffs, but how we do against our division will be the biggest determining factor. Hard to think we’ll dominate the Wings like we did last season, but you never know.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Dec 21, 2011 7:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I wonder if the fact that we don’t have any superstar offensive talent to practice against hurts us in the beginning of the season. It seems early on that we aren’t ready to deal with the speed and agility of some of the top guys, but in the second half of the season, we tend to play better. It’s like we are using the early games for practice sessions.

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by cisar on Dec 21, 2011 6:31 PM EST reply actions

Preds might be a marginal playoff team but all that matters is a top 8 spot.
It’s so tight that even 95 points (a solid year) isn’t good enough anymore.

by virgil trucks on Dec 21, 2011 7:23 PM EST reply actions

Watching Ovie slide by Blum …as he watched…you may have a point. He appeared to be positioned for the pass…LOL

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by Predator Don on Dec 21, 2011 7:58 PM EST reply actions

I’d be interested to see this listing with Fenwick rather than winning percentage.

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by Derek Zona on Dec 21, 2011 10:13 PM EST reply actions

a) Win % is quick & easy to plug in

b) If I wanted to use the advanced stuff I’d rather come up with something more robust than just 5-on-5 Fenwick. Another on my long list of to-do’s.

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by Dirk Hoag on Dec 21, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

I think that another easy one to try, which is a better predictor of wins, is goal differential if I remember correctly.

by BECanucks on Dec 22, 2011 7:34 AM EST up reply actions

Yup

I wouldn’t use the one from the NHL standings, however, it includes bogus “goals” for shootout wins. You have to back out from that to be accurate.

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by Dirk Hoag on Dec 22, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

They do list 5-on-5 GF/GA now on there, which is nice

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Dec 22, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

True – but of course that ignores special teams.

Win % is by no means an end-all-be-all measure, it was meant as a quick & dirty option.

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by Dirk Hoag on Dec 22, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

Bruins have least mileage so far.
And also lowest opponent win% so far. Although looking at the other teams there, it’s all teams that have won a bunch. Does opponent win% include games against the team its listed for? Basically, does the .458 include games against the Bruins, for example?

also, good work

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Dec 22, 2011 9:12 AM EST reply actions

Maybe the win % is so high for the remainder of the schedule because

They have not played us yet!!!

by IG-PRED8 on Dec 22, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, looks like most of the teams with low opponent win% are all teams near the top of the standings…one win/loss out of 34ish games can make a difference

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by Cornelius Hardenbergh on Dec 22, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Did some regression analysis on the data to find the correlation (Rsquared) of
- Distance Travelled to Points earned (Point %) is -0.13
- The # of Back to Back Games to Point % is 0.12 (positive was strange)
- Avg Opponents Win % to Points is -0.86 (very good proxy so far this season)

Distance and # of Back to Back games are not highly correlated with a team earning points (point %) so statistically they are not good "excuse" or factor related the team’s performance. But playing harder opponents is highly and inversely correlated with the points a team earns as expected.

The Avg Opp Win% will change over the season and is influenced by injury, luck, hot goaltending/streak or overachieving teams and all sorts of factors. To see if the correlation regarding travel/back to back is valid, the regression should be done over previous season data rather this arbitrary cutoff.

by jeffgm on Dec 22, 2011 1:40 PM EST reply actions