Thursday's notes: Should the Predators keep Ryan Ellis up for the rest of the season?
by Dirk Hoag on Dec 29, 2011 10:16 AM EST
in Nashville Predators News
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PrintWe'll kick off this morning's hockey notes with a question from that came by on Twitter, and is well worth digging into:
so when Klein and weber are both back in lineup..chance of Ellis staying up and Blum back to Milwaukee keeping 7 d-men? - @davidfarmer23
I would expect that Ryan Ellis will be heading back to Milwaukee once the injury situation improves, and it's not so much about his play as it is about managing Nashville's long-term hockey assets. As we all know, the major storyline hanging over this Nashville Predators season is what will happen with the Big 3 of Weber, Suter, and Rinne. Rinne's been locked up, but Ryan Suter will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, while Shea Weber won't hit that status until the summer of 2013.
So what does this have to do with Ryan Ellis?
The reason that Suter is reaching UFA status one year faster than Weber is because Suter is reaching the end of his 7th "Accrued Season", while Weber is only in his 6th. In the Collective Bargaining Agreement, an Accrued Season is defined as one in which that player was on his club's Active Roster for at least 40 games (30 for goalies). Weber's rookie season of 2005-6 (28 game played) didn't qualify, while Suter's (71 games played) did.
So in order to keep Ryan Ellis from hitting the UFA market a year earlier than they'd like, it behooves the Preds to send him back to the AHL for a while, then recall him for the stretch run if needed, just so long as he doesn't hit that 40-game mark (just as we saw with Jonathon Blum last season). That patient asset management goes along with the decision to let him complete his junior hockey career, even though some teams would have been tempted to keep him on their NHL roster in 2010-11.
Now granted, the CBA is being renegotiated in 2012, so terms are subject to change, and while it's quite possible that the number of years required for unrestricted free agency might change, I'd be surprised to see the definition of an Accrued Season altered significantly. Until those things get hammered out, David Poile needs to operate under the rules which are on the books today.
I hope that answers your question, David! Now, on to the morning hockey notes...
As always, the morning after a game I recommend you surf through the "More Predators Sites" box on the left-hand sidebar of the main page, as almost every Preds blog in town has a recap of last night's shootout win over Minnesota.
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40 games is almost half the season, so Ellis would have to play the rest of the season almost. I think you’d want to keep him around for 20-30 games and let Blum get better in the AHL. That’s just my opinion.
"We want to keep beating them...to break their pride and break their season...is a huge thing for us." - David Legwand
I wouldn't want to send Blum down
He’s hot right now, hopefully he can keep it going
A Preds fan from Hamilton, Ontario!
I think it depends.
How long are Shea and Kevin out? A week? Let Ellis play in the Minors and replace Blum with him at some point. A month? It depends on how everybody is playing at that point. I love the assumptions that many people have that Blum will not improve while he’s playing right now. From what I’ve seen, he’s made fewer mistakes. Lets see how long Klein and/or Weber are out before we make judgement calls about which player to send down. What if Blum is back to his levels from last year and Ellis is playing great? Who do you send down? Hillen? Josi? Blum? Ellis?
"Life is but a knife blade, anyways. Sooner or later you slip and get cut." Charlie Goodnight from Streets of Laredo by Larry McMurtry.
Feel free to follow me on twitter @vols7381
My point here is that the Accrued Season issue is a very large factor in such a decision. I’d rather have an extra year of Ellis in his mid-20’s than a dozen or two extra games this season.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and a guy who can help you save money on all things hockey-related at Hockey Gear HQ.
I hate to be negative...
but I thibk we sit/trade Hillen. Hes been more of a liability every time I watch a game. Im constantly hoping he only has 2-3 major Klein esque gaffes a game. Thats not good. Maybe I am alone but it seems like hes regressing the past 8-10 games. Age maybe?!
At Hillen’s cheap price tag, you keep him around as the 7th Dman. Besides, it’s not like you’re going to get much of a return for him if you did trade him.
As for Ellis’ situation, it all depends on whether the coaches feel he gives them a better chance to win than does Blum or someone else. Let’s face it, if we do make the playoffs, it will be by a small margin of points, so that has to be a big consideration as to who stays up and who goes down.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Dec 29, 2011 11:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Disagree....
For the 13+ minutes a night Hillen gives us and his good play on the PK (check how many goals have been scored with him on the PK) he fills a nice role. I didn’t see any Kleinesque gaffes last night. Plus they always have him babysitting the newbie call-up defenseman. In the most recent case, Ellis, who has looked pretty good beside him. No coincidence in my opinion.
There’s too many variables right now to make a call if Ellis goes back to the Ads or not. Josi is playing his butt off while getting top pair minutes. Blum is playing better over the past two. We don’t know when Klein or Weber will come back. We don’t know if Poile is going to make a trade for a stay home defender.
I expect Ellis to head back to the A once we get healthy. Better for his long term development. Blum is facing a trip back to Milwaukee as well if we do make a trade for a vet stay home guy. It’s simply a numbers game at that point. Hillen as the #7 d-man doesn’t hurt our young blueliners’ development … sitting them long term does.
Watching Nashville play without Weber isn't HORRIBLE
It’s actually pretty fine. I’m not sure how our play would be without Suter. But losing Weber isn’t the end of the world.
A Preds fan from Hamilton, Ontario!
If we only resign suter this year we still have the rfa on weber so thats not the end of the world with him. Right now suter is priority numero uno
by Shadow23 on Dec 29, 2011 12:49 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Our PP going scoreless in the two games since Weber has been out in no coincidence. Weber is huge for this team in all aspects of our game.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Dec 29, 2011 2:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Exactly, I think Suter is the more expendable of the two because I think his spot can be filled, maybe by Ellis. Weber, not so much.
"We want to keep beating them...to break their pride and break their season...is a huge thing for us." - David Legwand
The quality minutes Suter gives us is invaluable, but he can be replaced on the PP. Weber not so much. Losing either would hurt tremendously, but losing Weber hurts defensively and offensively.
Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!
by Grizzledbear on Dec 29, 2011 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Remember how Webs looked out there in Suter’s absence for that stretch last year? It’s the combination of the two…
by LuvthePreds on Dec 29, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
They need each other
But chemistry could be made if Weber were to be paired with one of the young defensemen on the team. If Ryan Ellis can stay up in the NHL this season, Suter could be dealt away at the trade deadline. But we would need Weber to re-sign with us after January.
A Preds fan from Hamilton, Ontario!
If Ellis continues to develop, he could be as effective as Weber, maybe not the booming shot, but I like Ellis’s shot because he keeps it low to the ice, where rebounds occur. He also appears to have the knack of geting the shot off.
Our PP improved with Weber when he began to get it on net…..I remember the times he would miss the net by yards….and I don’t think it was his intention.
As far as Ellis staying up, we may be given no choice if one more d man goes down.
My hockey team is better than your hockey team
Ellis may be as effective...
but in different ways. Ellis is does not have the physical presence that Weber has. I don’t think that Ellis will be intimidating to any opposing player (unless he can grow a killer beard). He does have a quick shot and seems to have pretty good puck moving skills. I wish he could have got that pass near the end of the game where he essentially had an open net.
Beer... Now there's a temporary solution.-Homer Simpson
Is it bad I confused Ellis with the Preds blueliner of the game last night
by Oh my Goc! on Dec 29, 2011 6:04 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
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