Albert Pujols, Ryan Suter & The Nashville Predators, a cautionary tale

by Dirk Hoag on Dec 8, 2011 1:47 PM EST in Nashville Predators Analysis

The news this morning that Albert Pujols is leaving the St. Louis Cardinals to sign a massive 10-year contract with the Angels has the baseball world buzzing, and a good portion of the reaction says we have another greedy player placing himself above the team or his longtime fans in pursuit of the almighty dollar. Even locally, the story is gaining attention - Joe Dubin of 102.5 The Game noted it on Twitter:

I'd recommend keeping that sentiment in mind this summer, because this very scenario could play out over the next several months with Ryan Suter, who is currently playing out the final year of his contract with the Predators. Yes, of course I've seen the comments from Suter a couple weeks back that he'd like to stay here in Nashville, and I know that provided comfort to a lot of fans.

Unfortunately, talk is cheap. World-class two-way defensemen are not.

A player can say he'd like to stay with a given team, and that could be 100% true, but he could just as easily "like" to play for any other team in the league, too, especially if the financial and/or competitive situation is more favorable. And despite all the talk, I think you'd be hard-pressed to say this is the place where Suter could both maximize his earnings and contend for a Stanley Cup on an annual basis. Just look at some of the teams out there with salary room available next season (via CapGeek). Detroit, Dallas, Anaheim, New Jersey, and Washington are just a few of the teams with spending power this summer.

Next, take a look at the list of unrestricted free agent defensemen due to hit the market in 2012. Ryan Suter is unquestionably the cream of the crop. When Brian Campbell hit the market under similarly favorable conditions in 2008, he received an 8-year contract for more than $7 million per season. You can bet that somebody will go ga-ga over Suter (with much more reason, actually) and throw similar numbers, if not more, at him. So far this season he's putting up career-best offensive results, logging more ice time than ever, and is standing out defensively on an otherwise shoddy team:

Season	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	Pts/Gm	+/-	PPG	ATOI
2005-06	21	71	1	15	16	0.23	+7	0	17:21
2006-07	22	82	8	16	24	0.29	+10	1	20:09
2007-08	23	76	7	24	31	0.41	+3	1	20:35
2008-09	24	82	7	38	45	0.55	-16	3	24:16
2009-10	25	82	4	33	37	0.45	+4	2	23:59
2010-11	26	70	4	35	39	0.56	+20	1	25:12
2011-12	27	27	5	13	18	0.67	+11	3	26:52
Career		490	36	174	210	0.43	+39	11	22:14

Most data from Hockey-Reference.com

The task facing David Poile is a simple, but extremely difficult one. Sooner rather than later, he needs to understand whether a contract extension will get done in the very near future. If not, he needs to work the market and get the bidding started in order to trade Suter and get something of value in return. The longer this situation plays out, the less leverage Poile has, and if this uncertainty lingers through the end of the regular season, that leverage will be gone altogether. Letting Suter walk away as a free agent without any compensation for Nashville would be disastrous.

Unlike the Albert Pujols situation, the Predators shouldn't delude themselves into the notion that holding on until the bitter end gives them a window of opportunity to win a Stanley Cup this season. I think we all know what we have with this current team; a core of elite talent surrounded by some good (not great) complementary players and a whole lot of youth that is still developing. I don't think any reasonable observer would put them in a top 10 list of Cup favorites this year, so betting on a deep playoff run now at the risk of losing a prime hockey asset for nothing is perilous.

This isn't personal with Ryan Suter, it's just business. The guy has worked his way into an incredibly lucrative position, and it's hard to imagine that he'd give up his chance to hit the open market, the opportunity to not only hit the jackpot financially but also have some control over where he plays for the next several seasons.

For the love of the Predators, and not the defenseman who he drafted here in 2003, then developed patiently over time, David Poile needs to figure out soon whether or not that future takes place in Nashville. If that answer is not forthcoming, then it's time to see what kind of assets can be gained in return, and help keep this team competitive for the years ahead.

Ryan Suter

#20 / Defenseman / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 198

Born: Jan 21, 1985

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Comments

I said it on Twitter but I can use more characters here.

Loyalty (or lack thereof goes both ways) I can’t blame a player for cashing in. They have a limited number of years to make the really big bucks and a team will drop them in a minute if a better player comes along. Don’t believe me? Ask Cal O’Reilly, Shane O’Brein and JP Dumont.

by Melissa Vanderpool Wallace on Dec 8, 2011 2:14 PM EST reply actions

I believe we need to as least acknowledge the fact we could be Suterless next season and Nashville simply cannot allow him to walk.

Poile must establish( if he hasn’t already) a " sign by" date for Suter, to allow time to get the best deal possible for the Preds, in the way of a trade.

We’ve seen what has happened in Florida and Minnesota by way of trade and free agent. I’m satisfied with our core of “good, not great” players, so it is possible to work a trade, sign a free agent and have a strong(er) team next year.

My hockey team is better than your hockey team

by Predator Don on Dec 8, 2011 2:18 PM EST reply actions

What incentive do teams have

to try to trade for him now? I guess the only teams that would are the teams that think having Suter would put them into cup contention this year because they would just have to fight with everyone else during free agency at the end of the year, right?

Are teams allowed to try to work out a deal with Suter before the trade even happens so they know they can sign him long term?

by RemoWilliams84 on Dec 8, 2011 2:44 PM EST reply actions

We can leverage Suter to sign with us, because a trade could be to a team re building, if the trading partner is confident they can sign him. We could find a trading partner agreeable to Suter, he signs a deal with us and then the trade occurs. He could be a rental, but I doubt contending teams would want to pay the price, unless it involved draft picks only.

But we can’t somply allow him to play out his contract….and walk.

My hockey team is better than your hockey team

by Predator Don on Dec 8, 2011 3:03 PM EST reply actions

As I’ve pointed out before, what does Suter care if he’s traded to a re-building team this season? He can sign anywhere he wants to this summer. Neither we nor any other team have any leverage over him in the least bit.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Dec 8, 2011 11:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I wouldn't blame both suter and weber for walking from the preds

when you are one of the best players at your position to deserve to be paid as such, which both webs and suts fall into this category. Additionaly, as competitors they want to be in a position to win.
When I really look at things, i don’t believe the preds are in a position to fulfill both criteria anytime soon.

that being said, if Poile doesn’t get at least one of them signed some serious questions should be asked.

Keys to the game: GA<GF

by flyalder on Dec 8, 2011 4:02 PM EST reply actions

Sadly it feels like everyone has come to the realization that at least one, if not both, of them will not be here next year. While Poile and the rest of the management team have done their best to change the culture of Nashville from being the team that struggled to get a full house and a team that would not pony up the big bucks for their top players. They still have to change the later of those common thoughts. Yes we signed Pekka to that 7 year contract but that was just one guy out of the whole group. If we fail to sign both Weber and Suter then that thought will still be there and even if we manage to sign one we will still question if we will be able to sign any big time players to get us into that final 2 rounds

by Shadow23 on Dec 8, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions

As has been seen...

What we truly need is a bona fide goal scorer…even in the last few games, the Predators haven’t looked terrible, but they can’t score goals. Pekka and Lindback can only bail us out so many times, we need someone who is hungry to score like a Bobby Ryan or Zack Parise or even a Jarome Iginla. The latter two play with some grit also and would fit our system well.

by HardCorePredFan316 on Dec 8, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't go so far as to say definitively either way, actually.

Difficult is not the same thing as impossible. I’m in the “hope for the best, but plan for the worst” category. The ownership is saying the money is there. Poile is still talking with the agents (as far as we know). Nothing has been ruled out yet.

I’m not banking on Suter and Weber signing, but I’m not ruling it out completely, either.

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.

by CAustin on Dec 8, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Im not counting out the fact that we can do it im just throwing it out there that it seems like we are falling back into that rut of “We never sign our big time stars” that we have been guilty of in the past. I would love to see us sign both and shove it in the faces of everyone else in the league (and the canadian media who claims we never will). I am right there there with you in the hope for the best position just seems like any kind of loyalty is out the window now in pro sports. (once Jeter retires he will be the last superstar to star with one team his whole career and not want to go anywhere else)

by Shadow23 on Dec 8, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

Marty St. Louis, Vinny Lecavalier—-there’s a reason I love the Lightning.

I’m not sure who you’re talking about when you say “we” are falling into a rut—do you mean the fans are becoming discouraged or the team is less likely than you believed they were to get these deals done? If it’s the latter, what happened that makes you change your mind? Have I missed some info?

(FWIW, I reread Josh Cooper’s chat from today and he appears to think that there’s a good chance they’ll get signed. Since he’s around the team a lot more than I am, I’m slightly encouraged by that assessment.)

R.I.P. Belak, Rypien, Boogaard, Lokomotiv.

by CAustin on Dec 8, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Like so many said at the time, they signed the wrong guy to 49/7. Rinne’s contract will be impossible to live up to, and will likely prevent the Preds from keeping at least one, and possibly both, of their star D. And even if it miraculously doesn’t, having that much money tied up in three guys is really going to hamstring the team’s ability to build the depth they need to be true contenders. It’s obviously not impossible, but it’s going to be really difficult.

It’s sad to see, too, because I developed a soft spot for this team when I visited the GEC in ’06, and even own one of the ugly-ass mustard thirds, and really enjoyed seeing a packed house after years of ownership uncertainty.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Dec 8, 2011 5:03 PM EST reply actions

We have Weber another year, it we want him. I believe we will pay him.

My hockey team is better than your hockey team

by Predator Don on Dec 8, 2011 6:51 PM EST reply actions

This post had the flair of a Sam Page post!

I thought it was Sam at first!

The bottomline is, Suter has all the cards (pun somewhat intended with the Pujols signing) now and until he signs with whoever he wants to sign with. Maybe it will be us, I’d probably put the odds at less than 50/50 though. If we fail (again) to bring in additional talent that tells Suter and Weber that we’re serious about being more than just a tough team to play against, they have no reason to stay here. They’ll get their money from any number of teams, it’s the chance to play on a perrenial Cup contender that will likely be the big selling point to both of them.

Defense keeps you in games........offense wins them!

by Grizzledbear on Dec 8, 2011 11:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Nice post

First, I’d like to tip my hat for a very good story, Dirk. Loyalty in pro sports is ever a fascinating tale with fairy tale endings coming rarer which every decade. Sad but true. Not every team can have a Dirk Nowitzki happy-end.

Regarding Pujols, heck, he gave the Cards their long-sought for title, so what? L.A.s definately more intruiging than St. Louis (no pun intended), and if the money adds to the flavor? He’s done his part for his (old) team.

As for Suter (and Weber): It would be so great to have them stay with the Preds, both for reasons of skill and identification. But fact is… they are among the best D-men in the league and even Ray Bourque changed ships one day to win a cup when his team couldnt deliver. Unless one of them has a heart bigger than a tree, I dont see either of them stay in town for his career. That’s the truth about it. And cashing in a big paycheck must not necessarily be the only reason. Winning might be an even more important factor.

by CGBrulez on Dec 9, 2011 3:42 AM EST reply actions